After experiencing high speed of 30 years to grow, chinese economy structure produced essential sex to change. Future, if China wheres does ” of “ double loop realize economic high quality to develop below new development pattern? How has Chinese economy walked along below one Cheng? Recently, director of research center of economy of prexy of senior professor, economy, China Professor Zhang Jun accepts Fudan University liberal art civil report special report, unscramble trend of Chinese economy future.

With the supply that forms by indigenous industry chain changes “ to double loop ” for the foundation, drive Chinese economy to be on high quality to develop civil report: Xi Jinping's secretary-general goes out in the middle finger of 20 big reports of the party: “ must complete, accurate, comprehensive implement new development concept, hold to socialist market economy to reform way, hold to Gao Shuiping to open to the outside world, accelerate compose to build the new development structure that gives priority to double loop of international of body, home to be promoted each other with domestic systemic circulation. How does ” know pattern of new development of ” of “ double loop correctly? Zhang Jun: A kind of view thinks, big country economic advantage is interior can circulate, the economic progress that forming domestic systemic circulation is us should rely on country's huge market. This wording is not exact, important is not home market dimensions, however home market whether ” of true “ loop rises. Article report: Accordingly, construction whole nation integrates big market, the foundation of expedite home systemic circulation props up since, also be the underlying demand of double loop of stimulative home international. Whether can you understand so? Zhang Jun: Yes. The individual thinks, we understand from the angle that supplies chain, domestic systemic circulation shows we had the capacity that the entrance replaces, but do not be equal to us to need to circulate oneself. Its core wants justice it is the open sex that makes China's huge home market realizes height truly, security, fluidity, the factor of production that lets the whole world provide creativity most rises in ” of loop of Chinese market “ , only such, the home market of 1.4 billion much population just is able to become Chinese economy to expand the domestic power that can lean. Go up century 80 time end, central decision executes extroversion economy to develop the strategy in foreland of the eastpart part, introduce a foreign trader to invest directly energetically, enlarge machines exit greatly, seize the significant opportunity of economic globalization. The processes exit strategy form that international systemic circulation is outer to both ends of popular at that time market and raw material “ ” is wraparound. We use the opportunity that developed country technology transfers, through enlarging treatment exit advances economy to develop. From “ supplied materials treatment ” enters makings treatment ” to “ , power of much rural surplus labor enters a town, we introduce the capital of the developed country, equipment and technology, digest ceaselessly absorb advanced manufacturing technology, doing a middle school, the ” of “ world plant that grows to have global competition advantage to be on manufacturing industry step by step. After joining WTO, till global banking crisis erupted 2008, development of the administrative ability of Chinese enterprise, technology applies ability to promote ceaselessly, can be produced now and export the high-tech product with a large number of sophisticated technologies. The exit technology that lab of development of haing Buddha university weaves is sophisticated spend an index to show, chinese exit tastes medium technology complex degree had entered 17 from 40 above, the United States is the 10th, difference is narrowing quickly. Nowadays, chinese economy begins to export the pattern that drives economic progress to change an entrance to the mode that replace stage by stage by the past. In the mass territory of manufacturing industry, the capital that we can rely on ourselves to produce is tasted, among article replace an entrance to taste. Automobile industry is a very good example, we from support and forerunner joint-stock, to today oneself build a car, sales volume of month of home of car of native land brand surmounts Japan, Korea, Euramerican brand already. Then, the typical case that the story became Chinese economy to use the advantage after hair, technology through introducing forerunner and development improvement trade to realize sudden economy to chase. Article report: Pursueing stage, chinese economy is based on national power to share global commerce and system of division of labor, halved globalization extra dividend adequately, but if why chase level to maintain after to if why chase level to maintain after,improve productivity? Zhang Jun: Let us return ” of “ double loop to go up. In fact, china passes international systemic circulation, develop the strategy through extroversion economy, the manpower capital that accumulated Gao Shuiping, material capital and technology develop ability, a batch of preeminent native land companies rise abruptly quickly, accomplished complete and efficient supply catenary system. The product that a lot of entrances replace formed his brand, gallop go up in the international market likewise. In exporting a product, the cell that for instance times of car of new energy resources, peaceful heart produces, China serves as the mechanical and electrical products of the largest category, after having the capacity that the entrance replaces, the outlet with wholesale give attention to two or morethings, this still is extroversion model. And, china of base oneself upon develops and efficient supply catenary, the poineering company that is a target with abroad client in great quantities also was born. A little regretful is, be in China, people notices rarely, home has a lot of “ invisible champion ” or alone horny animal company is serving overseas market. In fact, these companies the consequence that in the consequence Yuan Sheng of Euramerican market they are in China. Enter new development phase, let the market produce conclusive effect in resource configuration, play entrepreneur spirit, encourage productivity of complete element of technical innovation, promotion, release the latent capacity that Chinese economy expands, with the supply that forms by indigenous industry catenary is a foundation, the ” of new development pattern that turns to “ home systemic circulation to give priority to double loop of international of body, home to be promoted each other, believe ” of “ double loop is sure to drive Chinese economy to be on the way that high quality develops. “ ground floor did not change logically, but the times already changed ” . Big country economic tenacity is strong, when with situation in us at the same time civil report: Be in " big country economy: How has China walked along below one Cheng " in, you mention “ ground floor to did not change logically, but the times already changed ” . How do you look to trend of Chinese economy future? Zhang Jun: “ times already changed ” , it is us essentially home formed Gao Shuiping supply catenary and manufacturing chain. We comparative from in the past the capital of the equipment of the technology that the import counts on degree, entrance, entrance, to now the entrance is replaced, this is a very big change. The technology that tastes in order to export is sophisticated degree will measure, the difference of we and developed country is greatly narrow, productivity level of China is moving toward higher development level continuously. On the other hand, in recent years, the west is main protectionism of national populism be current, trade looks up, counter globalization tendency more apparent, global industry catenary, supply catenary to be faced with major impact, ” of neck of card of “ of crucial core technology dash forward show. “ ground floor did not change logically ” , the logic that economy of China of that is to say grows did not change actually. Big country economic tenacity strong, latent capacity won't be changed sufficiently, for a long time to nice main area. After reforming and opening, chinese economy implementation is successive 30 old rapid growth, this greatly of ascribe China market open with competition. Take root of Chinese native land company is in China economic ground floor, grow in the from bottom to top in brutal competition rise, thoroughly tempered gifted the company is great viability. Just we are in impossibly still now at a draught technical domain is occupational all commanding elevation, but when with situation be in China at the same time, I believe to be among a lot of domains we are to be able to have a breakthrough. The many “ that the import that represents in order to could there be for you when heart for instance replaces domain emerge in large numbers to come out only company of small giant of new ” of spy of essence of life, although they are centered in the production of singler product only, but capability of its research and development is very strong, in the technology respect of measure of development, patent application is behaved very outstandingly. Batteries is not big, but achieve global share the first, the market is big. So-called economy tenacity, it is to show an economy system answers exterior interference effectively, resist risk concussion, achieve economy the own, capacity that can expand continuously, concentration reflected the main area of economy of a country. The history tells us, economy of a country grows the concussion that encounters haphazard, likelihood occurrence short-term is fluctuant, but those who decide long-term development is economy main area, depend on economic tenacity. Practice has proved and will continue to prove, our country economy restores the favorable situation of development to won't be changed continuously, the condition of factor of production that the high quality that prop up develops won't be changed, economic tenacity strong, latent capacity sufficient, room for manoeuvre won't be changed greatly, for a long time to nice main area. While China is emphasizing accelerating compose to build domestic systemic circulation, also need more outstanding on the strategy how to let this one huge home market make larger contribution for global economy this one topic for discussion. On the policy of concerned commerce, investment and development, china needs to become his part the combination of a generator and consumer from a simple generator change. Do and can not weaken manufacturer position of China so, need to open country's bigger element market however. Article report: Xi Jinping's secretary-general emphasizes: “ compose builds the feature with new development the most essential pattern is the free-standing self-improvement that realizes Gao Shuiping. If why ” China has his place on core technology industry? Zhang Jun: Answer this question, I think to want to support the attitude of be practical and realistic above all. Difference exists in a lot of respect between China and developed country, the difference that exists with domain of science and technology among them is most notable. Although these year we had run very quickly, from 20 centuries 90 time arrive now, china drives technical progress rate to maintain with the means of half step tantivy in average and annual 3 ％ —4 ％ . And the average technology progress of the country that the United States and those basically rely on own research and development to drive a technology to progress has not led ％ of 1 ％ —1.5. After all we still have a space from forward position in a lot of domains, course study can run some more quickly for certain. In fact, arrived after forward position, technical progress basically relies on own research and development, because this technology progress will be slow,come down, economic growth comes down slow also. We talk about big country economy, the dimension that is “ quantity ” above all is spent. Chinese with a vast territory, have 1.4 billion population, the market is big, apply a Jing Fengfu, economic gross is next to the United States. In light of the angle that accumulates from manpower capital, the dimensions with the labour unripe science that we develop wants to be gotten greatly than the United States much. So, on the level that measures ” in “ , china has definite advantage. However, talk “ level ” , no matter be the ability of basic research, ability that science and technology innovates, still be the ability that the technology develops, china is put in difference with the developed country really in a lot of respects, this is the current situation that we must admit and faces. No matter the United States is hit,this is meant press China, the field is developed in domain of basic research domain, innovation of science and technology, technology, we must want vigorously, slow and steady, and rash advance is not gotten, the lesson that spoil things by excessive enthusiasm cannot forget, no matter the practice that these lessons come from ourselves, still be the experience of the developed country. Look in economist, the technology that China wants to own own intellectual property in domain of a few core and engineering capability are not impossible, and the problem depends on cost having how old. So, I think the most important is to should let the market conduct technical development, technical development and innovation should count a company morely, let civilian battalion enterprise make the principal part that science and technology innovates especially, such more lean chart, safer, the risk is lower. Because be in an enterprise, especially in the development process of civilian battalion enterprise, a demand that undertakes the technology is developed is born inside its meeting. As to the government, can reach the hand of aid completely for the enterprise, the technology that is an enterprise develops more as superior as innovation activity activate system environment and condition, the specific level that avoids pair of overmuch ground, meticulous research and development and innovation activity undertakes intervene and intervening. But a bit need to make clear, research and development and innovation are impossible to accomplish in one move, not be short-term and OK get effective. Hold on so, no matter be to be above development of technology of research and development,I believe China, still be big above the breakthrough of technology of a few core hopeful. See Shanghai economy, the radiate that ought to put the view morely in Shanghai to develop in place of long triangle area drives the article on action to report: Instantly, civilian battalion enterprise is experiencing those who come from each blast —— holds to a warm wind “ does not waver in the least twice ” eats ” of next “ sth capable of comforting sb to civilian battalion entrepreneur. How to encourage civilian battalion enterprise to raise hope firm anticipate, bold development? Zhang Jun: Chinese enterprise accumulated the learns ability and giant market dimensions union that rise a few years in the past, shaped the poineering motive force of Chinese ground floor really, what China has the success that does not know for public place in great quantities is medium small company. Go up in the amount not only breathtaking, it is in application of science and technology the domain innovates ceaselessly more. Dimensions exceeds the applied setting of big infinite shift, it is the great temptation that the person that these ground floor do poineering work faces. This also just explains, the foreground of the development of civilian battalion business to Chinese economy and Chinese economy is confident. In hypostatic economy, from the point of efficiency and capital return rate, the whole of civilian battalion enterprise behaves excel state-owend enterprise, and financial orgnaization however apt thinks state-owned company venture is smaller. Mechanism of this specification market has not been in resource configuration have conclusive effect. Civilian look forward to and state-owend enterprise are evaluated in bank credit, the risk evaluates a system medium not quits, brought about the main body of civilian battalion economy with taller efficiency to be faced with financing instead the issue with high cost of difficult, financing. Here we also might as well change a train of thought, “ is occasionally difficult ” also not likely is an evildoing completely, face “ hard-earned ” , we can be cherished more instead, the enterprise is used to what place obtains resource meet more effective. This also can help us understand from another angle, why enterprise of Chinese civilian battalion is special can “ hits ” . But attention still should be returned finally solve a problem to come up, should from go up at all the question that solution matchs anything but, the configuration of need finance natural resources more commercialize, need element market is more more perfect, fair, those who break system of ownership is divisional with bounds. Additional, the place before be like is narrated, enterprise of inchoate China civilian battalion is to be in brutal competition more, hit from the rock-bottom from bottom to top of Chinese economy go all out come out. Go up century 90 time, enterprise of a lot of civilian battalion by cooperative of villages and towns civilian battalion is changed turn to make and come, or by long-term deficit medium or small state-owned company develops through share-holding system reform and come. And reform extremely urgent at that time, the hard to avoid in turning to make or run a bought course appears all sorts of non-standard with not perfect. In addition, code of system of one's early years is not quite perfect, some civilian battalion enterprises are taking the ground, construction in the process such as garden area, financing, made ” of edge ball of a few “ or the operation that carried out ” of alleged “ flexible. These bury the question of ” of “ one's previous experience that left to often be denounced today to enterprise of a few civilian battalion. Perfect ceaselessly as system of our country socialist market economy, the ceaseless development as business law and regulation is perfect, we should protect property right of civilian battalion company and entrepreneur rights and interests lawfully, accumulate to one's early years, the problem that has not solved good to now, needed to make break, come down certainly through resolution or law, let take part in a battle with light packs of civilian battalion enterprise so, health of economy of farther stimulative China develops certainly will. Article report: Shanghai is economic center city of China. But the outside has a view for a long time, think Shanghai fails civilian battalion company. How do you look? Zhang Jun: I think, shanghai does not lack civilian battalion business. But, as international metropolitan, the talent structure of Shanghai has its uniqueness, high-end talent is centered relatively, more the benefit development at the contemporary service line of business such as innovation of finance, commerce, science and technology. Additional, center look forward to, transnational corporation gathers in this city, be identified to come out in the economic matrix that enterprise of enterprise of “ big ” , “ strong ” just may be in Shanghai it seems that, medium or small hard to avoid of civilian battalion enterprise appears not quite marked. As Shanghai international science and technology innovation center construction is advanced steadily, here a lot of divisions achieve an enterprise to be come out by hatch. However, because Shanghai is opposite higher management cost, a lot of enterprises are in by hatch or maturity later, meeting choice moves manufacturing segment from Shanghai, change comes long three-cornered is other place, carry battalion only headquarters or the management center stays in Shanghai, leave “ cerebra ” in Shanghai, this has area headquarters, home headquarters among them, also have global headquarters. Below such case, if say the unit of the smallest economy of past Shanghai may be enterprise or factory, so the unit of the smallest economy of interior of Shanghai city space has transformed today gave priority to for Lou Yu, this shows prospective Shanghai economy grows kinetic energy to basically depend on the headquarters economy of the domain such as finance, commerce, shipping. So, break away from long triangle, what go isolatedly judging enterprise of Shanghai civilian battalion is much with little it is unscientific. Unifinication of high quality of long triangle area develops, its are to strengthen Shanghai and other area substantially (city) in economically deepness confluence, the assemble that realizes resource to go up in larger space. Look from urban economy configuration, long triangle area shows a center - the characteristic of periphery. Regard Chinese economy as center and long three-cornered bibcock, the socialistic international that Shanghai is accelerating construction to have world force is metropolitan. Below this kind of circumstance, the growth of the development that isolates Shanghai analytic unit goes discussing its economy as, economy, have very big limitation. So, we should alter future traditional in the past view, avoid by all means too from economy of sea of Shanghai itself settle on setting out, and the radiate that ought to put the view morely in Shanghai to be developed in place of long triangle area drives action, inspect the real economy flow that analyses Shanghai from perspective of space of long triangle area, and the economic gross that inspects Shanghai to follow circumjacent unifinication area afresh. From the point of the economic function of Shanghai, prospective Shanghai assumes function of center of GDP of and rather than of money center function will morely.