Chinese oil and data of chemical Joint Industry Conference show, 2022, our country oil and chemical industry realize business income 16.56 trillion yuan, profit total 1.13 trillion yuan. According to data of national statistic bureau, 2023 first half of the year, petrifaction entire industry realizes business income 7.6 trillion yuan, drop compared to the same period 4.4% ; Implementation profit total four hundred and thirty-one billion and ninety million yuan, drop compared to the same period 41.3% . Industry of our country petrifaction is in the domain such as oil refining, ethylene, methanol, PTA, reside multinomial world dimensions firmly the first. To 2025, process capability obtains crude oil of predicting whole nation 980 million tons / year, average scale promotes refine plant further; Demand of equivalent of our country ethylene or amount to 70 million tons, at the appointed time breach makes an appointment with 12 million tons; Domestic PX still is in enlarge can fastigium, from depend on an entrance badly to achieve autarky; The new energy industry that high speed grows is brought to chemical material brand-new development good luck; Oil data is changed, decrease oil to add the deepness refine that change and gives priority to with changing to change unifinication to become petrifaction industry to basically develop way. 01Oil refining: 2025 refine can 980 million tons / year
2022, our country crude oil process capability 920 million tons / year, annual treatment measures 676 million tons, refine can utilization rate 73.5% . Enterprise of domestic oil refining still is given priority to twice with Chinese petrifaction and Chinese oil, in adding Chinese sea oil, China, change, Chinese enginery, lengthen the diversity main body such as oil, civilian look forward to and foreign capital, add up to have ten million ton class refine factory 34.
Predict 2025, process capability obtains countrywide crude oil 980 million tons / year, average scale promotes refine plant further. Oily consumption of finished product of predicting our country is in 2027~2028 year reach peak value, industrial chemicals of increase production of refine factory transition becomes enterprise of Chinese oil refining to develop a tendency necessarily.
In “ double accuse setting of ” of double carbon of ” and “ to fall, cleanness of the sources of energy is replaced, energy consumption electric energy is replaced, car is energy-saving replace with fuel develop quickly. Crude oil machines fat yield of process finished product to drop year after year, decrease oil to add turn a tide apparent.
2023~2025 year, our country adds refine newly to be able to be in main concentration the refine that press down the sea is changed, make rich Long Lian is changed, refine of big a pavilion or house on a terrace is changed, Hua Jinlian is changed, ancient Lei Lian is changed wait for a project to go up. Among them, the refine that press down the sea is changed increase oil refining capacity newly 11 million tons / year, predict 2024 put into production; Abundant dragon refine is changed increase oil refining capacity newly 20 million tons / year, predict 2024 put into production; Refine of big a pavilion or house on a terrace is changed increase oil refining capacity newly 6 million tons / year, predict 2024 put into production; Hua Jinlian is changed increase oil refining capacity newly 15 million tons / year, predict 2025 put into production; Ancient Lei Lian is changed increase oil refining capacity newly 16 million tons / year, predict 2025 put into production.
Predict 2025, management main body of our country oil refining is produced can distributing on, chinese petrochemical is produced can achieve 331 million tons / year, occupy than 34% ; Chinese petrolic is produced can achieve 232 million tons / year, occupy than 24% ; The yield of the other center look forward to such as Chinese sea oil can achieve 127 million tons / year, occupy than 13% ; Independent refine factory is produced can achieve 290 million tons / year, occupy than 29% .
02Ethylene: 2025 breach 12 million tons
The ethylene industry of our country already formed “ 3 minutes at present the manufacturing situation of the world ” . Among them, chinese petrifaction ethylene always is produced can 15.03 million tons / year (contain joint-stock) , the whole nation is occupied than 32% ; The ethylene of other center look forward to such as oil of sea of Chinese oil, China always is produced can 14.15 million tons / year, the whole nation is occupied than 30% ; Ethylene of other management principal part is produced can aggregate 18.32 million tons / year, the whole nation is occupied than 38% .
Data shows, up to by 2022, home shares 66 ethylene to produce a business, always produce can 47.51 million tons / year, break up one time than 2017, occupy the world to always be produced can 21.4% . Among them, produce can 600 thousand tons / year the enterprise of above in all 35, produce can 1 million tons / year the enterprise of above in all 17.
Crop of our country ethylene made an appointment with 39.05 million tons 2022; Equivalent consumption makes an appointment with 60.37 million tons, 2017~2022 year ethylene equivalent consumption year all increase rate is made an appointment with 6.5% .
Predict 2025, countrywide ethylene always is produced can make an appointment with 66 million tons / year, lead computation by the start working of 88% , crop is 58 million tons. By year all grow 5.2% to predict, demand of equivalent of our country ethylene made an appointment with 70 million tons 2025, at the appointed time breach makes an appointment with 12 million tons; Chinese petrochemical ethylene is produced can achieve 20.33 million tons / year, occupy than 30.8% ; The ethylene of center look forward to such as Chinese oil is produced can aggregate achieve 22.15 million tons / year, occupy than 33.6% ; Other company is produced can aggregate occupy than 35.6% .
03Aromatic hydrocarbon: PX supply and demand was balanced basically 2025
To xylene (PX) the important petrochemical that is join oil refining and chemical industry, since weighs one of wanted products most in aromatic hydrocarbon breed, also be the bibcock raw material of polyester industry. The PX of about 99% is used at production to get together to benzene 2 formic acid (PTA) , produce then get together to benzene glycol of 2 formic acid ester (PET) .
Current, domestic PX still is in enlarge can fastigium. Our country PX was produced 2022 can add to nearly 3 times 2015, self-sufficient rate promotes quickly, already from depend on an entrance badly to turn to autarky. In a year of in the past, the incident such as hair of frequency of oil of attune of conflict of black sufferring Russia, aromatic hydrocarbon, epidemic situation is disturbed, demand of whole of PX industry catenary presents weak potential.
Predict 2023, domestic PX supplies ability to continue to promote, import source place occupies portion to will continue to decrease, PX profit margin drops, prospective regression cost fixes a price (naphtha + treatment expends a price) .
Develop central data according to technology of economy of Chinese chemical industry, 2022, PX crop 25.6 million tons, apparent consumption 36.05 million tons, self-sufficient rate only 71% ; 2025, PX crop 40 million tons, apparent consumption 40 million tons, will achieve balance of supply and demand. 2022, EG crop 13.31 million tons, apparent consumption 20.78 million tons, self-sufficient rate only 64% ; 2025, EG crop 18.6 million tons, apparent consumption 23.05 million tons, self-sufficient rate reachs growth 81% . Domestic PTA and PET will be begged for be more than all the time with future now.
04High-end polyolefin: Produce can will rapid growth
Up to by 2022, colophony of our country general polyethylene (do not contain EVA, POE) produce can 31.76 million tons / year. Among them, chinese petrifaction is produced can be 10.07 million tons / year, occupy than 31.7% ; Chinese oil etc ends look forward to is produced can come thirteen million and seventy-five thousand tons / year, occupy 41.1% ; Other company is occupied than 27.1% .
After 2015, development of our country EVA begins to quicken, produced 2022 can achieve 2.15 million tons / year, self-sufficient rate 60% above. Technology of our country POE just is broken through, only in trial assembly buy. Our country MPE (luxuriant metal polyethylene) broke through 2020, crop made an appointment with 300 thousand tons 2022, self-sufficient rate only 10% the left and right sides.
Predicting 2024~2025 year, our country polyethylene produces can rapid growth. 2025, our country polyethylene is produced can achieve 47.09 million tons / year, chinese petrifaction is produced can occupy than by 2022 31.7% drop for 31.0% , chinese oil etc ends look forward to is occupied than by 41.1% drop for 34.7% ; Other company is occupied than coming by 27.1% promotion 34.3% .
2023~2025 year, our country polyethylene year import volume will still maintain the Gao Shuiping that controls in 10 million tons, the breed such as polyethylene of special feed, luxuriant metal still is in high end the import is counted on certain level. Predict 2025, self-sufficient rate of our country EVA will achieve 80% above, the market enters sufficient competition state; POE general implementation is homebred change a breakthrough, self-sufficient rate is achieved 10% the left and right sides; Dust gram Sen Meifu (benefit city) MPE unit go into operation, domestic MPE self-sufficient rate also will promote considerably.
2022, EVA crop 1.68 million tons, apparent consumption 2.76 million tons, self-sufficient rate 60.7% ; Predict 2025, EVA crop 2.97 million tons, apparent consumption 3.6 million tons, self-sufficient rate promotion comes 82.6% .
2022, POE still is produced without the quantity, apparent consumption 660 thousand tons, self-sufficient rate 0; Predict 2025, POE crop 100 thousand tons, apparent consumption 900 thousand tons, self-sufficient rate promotion comes 11.0% .
2022, MPE crop 300 thousand tons, apparent consumption 2.4 million tons, self-sufficient rate 12.5% ; Predict 2025, POE crop 1.2 million tons, apparent consumption 3 million tons, self-sufficient rate promotion comes 40.0% .
05Chemical new material: Produce can outspread greet brand-new point of growth
The chemical new material of our country is being entered produce can fast dilate period. It is with polycarbonate exemple, after domestic technology obtains a breakthrough, 2018~2022 year, polycarbonate is produced can year all add fast amount to 30% , produced 2022 can achieve 3.2 million tons / year. Industrial catenary unifinication, dimensions changes a level to promote considerably, build device to all be device of industrial catenary unifinication, original plant also realizes raw material form a complete set stage by stage.
2022, countrywide polycarbonate crop 1.78 million tons, the entrance measures 1.39 million tons, consumption 2.88 million tons, self-sufficient rate 60% above. Those who deserve attention is, although home is produced,can grow considerably, but homebred makings with plank / filmy low end is general in using form product is given priority to, application adds the high end such as electric, car and optics, high at medical treatment, electron the polycarbonate that is worth a domain still needs an import.
Accompany level of domestic company technology rise, high-powered, high quality entrance product will come true gradually homebred change replace, self-sufficient 2025 rate achieves predicting polycarbonate 80% .
The rapid development of new energy resources of benefit from benefit from, chemical new material is in the industry such as report of battery of car of new energy resources, lithium, wind, smooth hot season greet brand-new point of growth. As the whole world the greatest new energy resources produces a country, the crucial component such as the package of smooth hot season that our country produces, wind- driven dynamo, gear case takes the whole world the market share of 70% , driving chemical of balata of not saturated colophony, epoxy resin, carbon fiber, EVA, fourth nitrile, wet electron to wait for relevant chemical industry new material develops quickly.
Quantity of produce and sale of car of our country new energy resources ranks the world 8 years continuously the first, also pull effectively move cobalt of lithium of phosphoric acid iron, nickel acerbity lithium of dissolvent of acerbity lithium, black lead, electrolyte, titanium, additive, polyethylene / polypropylene is diaphragmatic the development that waits for material.
2022, capital construction of telegram of our country wind adds installed capacity newly to be 37.6GW, predict to achieved 50GW 2025. The wind cable industry of rapid development will draw the demand that uses data of relevant chemical industry, if balata of not carbon fiber, saturated colophony, epoxy resin, special type reachs elastomer,wait. 2022, film of glue of our country smooth hot season uses up EVA colophony 1.45 million tons, POE colophony 250 thousand tons, predict 10 thousand tons to demand of colophony of colophony of EVA of smooth 2025 hot season, POE of smooth hot season amounts to 1.5 million ~200 respectively, 280 thousand ~35 10 thousand tons.
06Chemical garden area: Will occupy industry total production value to exceed 7 to become
We pass construction base of top class petrifaction of a batch of worlds and chemical garden area, can reduce cost of entire industry catenary acme, form distinct cost advantage. Below condition of industrialized summit summit, hopeful of chemical garden area realizes the cost of the scale with the largest whole world and lowest, finish finally in entire industry catenary from the change of the person that follow to the leader, emerge reveal enterprise of chemical industry of a batch of world-class and chemical garden division.
Data shows, up to now, area of garden of countrywide key chemical industry or the industrial garden area that are dominant industry with oil and chemical industry in all 643 (the chemical garden division that each province announces 593, partial province city has not publish list of chemical garden area) . Among them, area of garden of national level chemical industry (the garden in the garden in including to be located in development of technology of national level economy, new and high area, free tax zone, new developed area) 67.
2022, business income of oil and chemical industry 16.56 trillion yuan, production value of chemical garden area is 8.45 trillion yuan about, 51% what hold industry total production value about. To 2025, production value of chemical garden area will hold industry total production value 70% above; Target of production value of chemical garden area is 13.5 trillion. 2022~2025 year, production value of chemical garden area year all compound increase rate needs to maintain 16.9% above.
" 945 ” of “ of chemical garden area develop a guideline to reach 2035 in long-term development is looked into " requirement, 945 ” of “ of area of garden of our country chemical industry develop overall objective is by standardization development is jumped to high quality development rise, the “ that makes industry of chemical garden region develop promotion, green to change construction, wisdom to change construction, standardization construction and high quality development to set an example ” of 5 major project, 5 macrocosm provide outline at the beginning of group of class petrifaction industry, the key breeds 70 chemical garden areas that have top-ranking competition ability, make “5 50” , build division of 50 garden divisions to start a center namely, establish garden of chemical industry of 50 “ green area ” , build 50 “ wisdom ” of chemical garden area, make and promulgate garden of 50 chemical industry division management and construction standard and breed 50 high quality development sets an example.
Construction of standardization of chemical garden area should hold to “ 6 unifinication ” , namely content of unifinication of project of raw material product, public project sheds unifinication of data of wisdom of unifinication of lash-up of unifinication of unifinication, environmental protection zoology, safe fire control, intelligence, management service division achieves unifinication.
