Carbon fiber is called the king ” of “ new material. Be based on policy of ” of “ double carbon to drive the high end such as great progress of new energy resources, aerospace to create a field homebred change advance, and consumption upgrades the high end that drive is recreational sports demand, demand of trade of our country carbon fiber increases quickly continuously but period.
What is carbon fiber?
Carbon fiber is by polyacrylonitrile (PAN) (or bitumen, stick gum) the prep above of the quantity that contain carbon that waits for organic fiber to be formed in carbonization of the splitting decomposition below high temperature environment the carbon of 90% advocate fiber of catenary structure inorganic.
Carbon fiber has excellent mechanical performance and chemical stability, density is the 1/4 of steel, and strength is 16 times greater than steel, it is current have in the high-powered fiber of mass already production highest mix than intensity highest the fiber that measures than the model, have at the same time electric, heat conduction, anti-corrosive, be able to bear or endure fatigue, high temperature resistant, coefficient of expansion is small the good performance that waits for a series of other data to cannot be replaced.
Carbon fiber has applied at lamina of report of aerospace, wind, sports at present recreational, pressure vessel, carbon / carbon is construction of composite material, traffic, marine wait for a domain, it is the main strategy goods and materials with national defence war industry and national economy indispensable progress.
Catenary includes whole carbon fiber industry to light expect carbon fiber from fossil former silk, the one whole process till composite material. Former silk and carbonization are the crucial segment that carbon fiber produces, among them, 51% what cost of former silk link occupies carbon fiber to produce cost about.
Use domain volley power more, space of growth of carbon fiber demand is considerable
The basis is surpassed abstruse carbon fiber, demand of global carbon fiber took the field of before comparing 3 2021 ordinal it is wind report lamina 28% , sports is recreational 16% , aerospace 14% , demand of domestic carbon fiber takes the field of before comparing 3 ordinal it is wind report lamina 36% , sports is recreational 28% , carbolic carbon answer material 11% .
Look from market dimensions, aerospace magnitude of value is high, domain of report exceeding wind and sports are recreational applied summation. The carbon fiber that aerospace domain uses all price is top, reach 72 dollars / Kg, wind report domain applies all valence lowest, only 17 dollars / Kg, advocate because because aerospace class carbon fiber uses high-powered fasciculus normally,be, demand of each respect performance is top, because although rank,this is in on consumption the 3rd, but market dimensions is achieved the biggest.
In of more than points out analyst of silver-colored negotiable securities, hypothesis car, mix match a model to shape, the field requirement such as the building increases smoothly, predict demand of our country carbon fiber will achieve 132 thousand tons 2025, 2022-2025 year CAGR is 21.7% ; Dimensions of market of our country carbon fiber will reach 2.92 billion dollar 2025, 2022-2025 year CAGR is 16.0% . Contest abstruse carbon fiber predicts, to 2025 gross of demand of domestic carbon fiber will achieve 159 thousand tons, market space is controlled in 25 billion yuan.
Domestic manufacturer produces can fast shop to go out, have fall further this space
The technology of carbon fiber industry, capital and threshold of product test and verify are high, most enterprise has relatively long history, enterprise amount is limited. 2011-2021 year, global carbon fiber is produced can increase to from 93 thousand tons 207 thousand tons, year all enlarge produces about eleven thousand four hundred tons. Dilate is produced before 2021 basically can come from the abroad manufacturer such as Japanese Dong Li, Zoltek, Hexcel, SGL.
The basis is surpassed abstruse carbon fiber statistic, chinese mainland surmounted the United States first 2021, make the whole world the biggest produce can country, and produce from enlarge look on the plan, our country hopeful maintains more for a long time produce can first position.
Current our country's main carbon fiber manufacturer has Jilin carbon cereal, Jilin Bao Jing, medium La Xing of material of god of constant of answer god eagle, Jiangsu, Guang Wei answer, Lanzhou and Shanghai petrifaction. Among them, jilin carbon cereal is given priority to with former silk production; Jilin treasure an ancient type of banner hoisted on a featherdecked mast and Lanzhou blue star with big silk bundle carbon fiber production is given priority to, jiangsu constant god and Lanzhou blue star have both former silk production and carbon fiber productivity; Other company produces can main concentration to mix small in high-powered carbon bundle of carbon fiber. Data shows, jilin carbon cereal + Jilin treasure sheng, medium answer god eagle is produced can occupy than all be 24% , next Jiangsu constant god is occupied than 15% , material of Guang Wei answer 14% .
Carbon fiber attributes technology intensive, fund concentrated model industry. On capital investment, carbon fiber research and development, production makes link all need capital of high specified number to throw. Home basically appeared on the market 2021 ratio of expense of company research and development all is in 5% above, every 10 thousand tons are produced can early days throws cost to exceed 2 billion yuan. Accordingly, basically appear on the market in recent years the company all has more large-scale financing action, among them in 2022 answer god eagle, medium the collect capital specified number of brief science and technology parts to mix 2 billion yuan for 2.933 billion yuan. On January 30, 2023, announcement protocol adds Jilin carbon cereal not to exceed 1.7 billion yuan, basically use at producing per year project of 150 thousand tons of carbon fiber former silk, carbon fiber former silk and relevant product research and development to detect the center builds a project.
Because enterprise of more homebred carbon fiber has not achieve the breakthrough of crucial technology, product line moves reach product quality to be not stabilized, industry of homebred carbon fiber ever long-standing “ has produce can, without the phenomenon of crop ” . Realize dimensions to change steady volume to produce as increasing enterprise in recent years, low yield of industry of domestic carbon fiber can utilization rate situation takes a favourable turn significantly, already by 2017 only 28.5% promotion come 2022 55.8% , and international is produced can utilization rate is 65%-85% normally, still have certain difference.
From which structure of product of carbon fiber of main business of answer god eagle and our country looks, product of domestic carbon fiber basically is small silk bundle, photograph comparing, big bundle of production more be helpful for reducing cost, accordingly as our country big silk bundle produce can outspread, our country carbon fiber produces cost advantage hopeful to be highlighted further.
Produce a plan according to each company enlarge, big 2025 silk bundle former silk is produced can can amount to 372 thousand tons, big silk bundle carbon fiber is produced can can amount to 208 thousand tons, small silk bundle carbon fiber is produced can can amount to 119 thousand tons.
Money connects negotiable securities to calculate, compare 2021 first half of the year, between next sounding that predict to produce cost to still 19.7% is control to 2025 carbon fiber.
In data of manual of answer material raise capital by floating shares shows brief science and technology and Guang Wei, depreciation, fuel occupies carbon fiber to produce cost respectively about 38% , 24% , former silk of raw material polyacrylonitrile is occupied than 10% . In analyst of silver-colored negotiable securities of more than thinks, effect of scope of carbon fiber industry is distinct, manufacturing cost is long-term hopeful drops. In addition, grand numerous information predicts 2023-2027 year still nitrile of 3 million tons of propylene is produced newly can put in, increase fall after a rise of shock of price of crude of propylene nitrile upper reaches, price of predicting propylene nitrile will drop continuously, conduce carbon fiber produces cost to drop.
