Synthetic resin is one kind uses polymer of high polymer of industrial chemicals complex, be applied at packing widely, the domain such as building, agriculture, home appliance and car. Common 5 big synthetic resin include polyethylene (PE) , polypropylene (PP) , polyvinyl chloride (PVC) , polystyrene (PS) reach propylene nitrile - butadiene - styrene copolymer (ABS) .
Predict consumption of our country synthetic resin was 120 million tons 2024, add fast 3.9% ; Produce can amount to 140 million tons / year, add fast 9.8% ; Crop 100 million tons, add fast 7.1% .
Competition of market of our country colophony is intense, basically have two big factors, it is home is produced can put in a quantity big, 2 it is resource of the United States, middle east cheap, there still is price competition ability than domestic product after adding custom duty and freight. Accordingly, taking sb's place import side, should change through high end already, poor dissimilation method, also should optimize through craft etc reduce manufacturing cost.
Yang Zishi is changed increase polyolefin of high additional cost strength of production of new product development, already finished element of luxuriant metal polypropylene, freeboard to measure lithium battery early or late the production of a batch of new products such as diaphragmatic makings.
Spending of global synthetic resin increased steadily 2023
2023, synthetic resin of predicting whole world is produced can achieve 360 million tons / year, grow 5.5% compared to the same period; Crop achieves 280 million tons, grow 2.8% compared to the same period; Consumption achieves 270 million tons, grow 1.8% compared to the same period, amplitude is 3.1 taller than 2022 percent.
Global economy restores gradually after new coronal epidemic situation. Predict global GDP built bottom look forward to 2023 firm, add fast amount to 3% . IMF is forecasted GDP added fast United States 2023 1.8% , Europe 0.9% , Japan 1.4% , east alliance 4.6% , China 5.3% , GDP of each main economy system all is growing. Rebound considerably as the numerous tertiary industy such as meal, travel, PMI of global service line of business (purchase manager index) promote considerably, cause relevant colophony consumption to promote considerably.
2019~2024 year global PMI index
2020~2024 year global synthetic resin year all commerce is added fast
Global synthetic resin basically consumes the ground still is northeast inferior area; North America area is ranked the 2nd, but consumption is occupied than from 2015 15% drop 12% 2023; Western Europe is ranked the 3rd, consumption is occupied than from 12% drop 9% ; After southeast Asia and close therewith of South Asia area, consumption is occupied than all be 8% . The United States enters society of digitlization, informatization gradually, capital turns to artificial intelligence, flow to the capital drop off of plastic manufacturing industry, consumption of apparent of native land colophony drops gradually, will turn to import plastic goods from other country. Europe reachs conflict of ground fringe politics to bring about the sources of energy to rise in price as a result of low carbon transition, indigenous chemical industry is produced can drop off, bring about apparent consumption to drop. And the ability of consumption of burgeoning economy system that South Asia is a delegate with India grows steadily. Transfer to southeast Asia as Chinese industry, demand of southeast Asia colophony increases gradually.
Global synthetic resin was produced 2023 can increment continues with northeast inferior to grow main body. Produce can occupy than from 2015 39% 45% what expand to 2023. Outside eliminating naphtha line, PDH (propane dehydrogenation) , CTO (coal makes alkene) , MTO (methanol makes alkene) wait for all sorts of courses large-scale mount a horse, northeast inferior the spread that makes be worthy of the name can center. Shale of North America benefit from benefit from enrages revolution to have a large number of cheap alkene resource, producing polyolefin is the United States relatively actor choice, its are produced can take the world 16% , rank world the 2nd. And Europe rises as a result of energy cost, produce can occupy than from 2015 13% drop 9% 2023.
Can driving, profit stopped spread of our country synthetic resin 2023 narrow
Market of spending of our country synthetic resin was supplied 2023 add Su Yuanchao demand fast. According to data of national statistic bureau, total output of plastic product of 1~9 month our country was 54.38 million tons 2023, drop compared to the same period 0.6% . Because plastic products company is medium, amount of medium and small businesses is huge, not by statistical bureau statistic, according to colophony manufacturing company is produced can crop circumstance and statistic of imports and exports, predict 2023 colophony apparent consumption one hundred and eleven million six hundred and ninety thousand tons, grow 5.8% compared to the same period; Crop 97.9 million tons, grow 9.2% ; Produce per year can achieve one hundred and twenty-eight million seven hundred and sixty thousand tons, grow 12.8% . Although consumption is added fast relatively 2022 - 1.3% promote somewhat, but with GDP of the prep above before new coronal epidemic situation add fast photograph high lower than be being shown slightly fan.
2021~2024 year consumption of our country synthetic resin and add fast
Estate and consumption of colophony of exit be a burden on were added 2023 fast, and the effectively of spending of service line of business such as meal travel is carried brace up colophony consumption.
Colophony consumption occupies 15%~20% of colophony total consumption about related estate, estate is added fast glide the consumption that can control the product such as makings of cable of tubal material, wire, home appliance, textile bag. Estate investment was added 2023 fast for - 7% , greatly be a burden on colophony consumption is added fast.
The another big factor that colophony of be a burden on consumes is exit low fan, in exporting a product, our country is labor in great quantities concentrated model plastic products, 30% what take colophony total consumption about. Exit of our country colophony predicted to drop compared to the same period 2023 2.5% .
Our country product holds the proportion of Euramerican entrance synthetic resin
Appeared 2023 blowout type travels, travel income will amount to 5 trillion yuan, consumption of the meal related to travel, traffic, dress, commodity all has compared to the same period increase. Spending of travel of predicting annual whole nation increases 8% , effectively is pulled move colophony consumption growth.
Our country colophony was produced 2023 can put in a quantity still tremendous, hainan refine is changed, large quantities of one company go into operation such as petrifaction of Guangdong petrifaction, gain of science and technology of Dongguan Ju Zhengyuan, capital, only dimensions of polyolefin put into production is as high as 7.75 million tons / year, among them polypropylene is as high as 4.9 million tons / year. The course of numerous blame naphtha such as PDH, CTO produces can extensive also go into operation. Colophony output grew 8.24 million tons 2023, but demand increment only 6.13 million tons. For needing by force to lose, supply increment of demand of increment Yuan Chao. In addition, cloth human relations is special 2023 crude oil all valence restrains 83 dollars / bucket, still be in perch, colophony demand is low fan, cost cannot swim smoothly downward conduct, bring about colophony to produce company profit to close narrow, amount to 5 years to come low.
Domestic colophony imported dimensions to drop considerably 2023, it is in order to import the polyolefin with the largest scale exemple, import volume predicts to drop 7.5% , among them polyethylene drops 6% , polypropylene drops 13.1% . Colophony entrance drops the reason has 3: It is the dollar is added breath send a RMB to devalue continuously, restrain product import then; 2 it is domestic colophony is produced can soar, take sb's place abroad entrance; 3 it is domestic demand low fan, to slow down in demand of colophony of abroad high end.
Produce as our country in recent years can dimensions expands reach plastic modified business develop quickly, plastic exit dimensions expands gradually, basically give priority to with PP exit.
It is normal that consumption of global synthetic resin added fast regression 2024 orbit
As global monetary policy pressure of constrictive end, inflation alleviates somewhat, predict global GDP was added 2024 fast for 3% . Sluggish bilges after the risk removes, trade activity picks up sole. In addition, the country such as the United States, India will have a vote, in will publish policy to spur economic growth. Suffer add breath and effect of conflict of ground fringe politics, euro region economy is in 2023 deepness be issued to lower levels, but ensure source of short-term internal energy quickly to supply as euro area, overlay adds breath cycle to end, euro region economy is in hopeful greeted small to rebound 2024, predict euro area GDP was added 2024 fast rise to 1.5% . Anabiosis as global commerce, alliance economy grows east will slow restore, although amplitude is finite, but growth tenacity is more sufficient, predict 2024 east alliance GDP is added fast for 4.5% .
Below action of numerous and positive factor, predict global synthetic resin was produced 2024 can, crop, consumption is respectively 370 million tons / year, 290 million tons mix 280 million tons, relatively grew 3.8% 2023, 4.2% with 3.5% . Northeast inferior the area still is consumption and consumptive increment brunt, as “ area overall economy associate concerns (RCEP) ” and “ are taken all the way the agreement proposal such as ” is advanced ceaselessly, asian market vigor will be aroused. The Asia is world plant not only, also will make world market. From the point of demand increment, the area of before the rank 3 all comes from an Asia, it is northeast respectively inferior, South Asia and southeast Asia, aggregate 74% what occupy global demand increment, it is respectively 47% , 18% with 9% .
The Asian market with huge dimensions of population of RCEP general activation, be helpful for driving Sino-Japanese Han, China and east alliance, medium bay, in wait for the formation from trade division newly, “ is taken all the way ” construction is advanced will be helpful for southeast Asia, medium inferior the market grows. At present east alliance already was associate of our country the biggest commerce, 2022 our country and east petrochemical trading business volume amounts to alliance 157.2 billion dollar, than going up year of growth 20.1% , achieve the history top level, predict trade volume will continue to promote considerably 2024. In the meantime, in recent years economy adds India fast very tall, or will become next economy to grow engine, colophony spending also is increasing quickly. In addition, consumption of colophony of Asian area average per capita is general and inferior, capital construction, pack, the field such as commodity is huge to colophony product requirement, because field of colophony product application is extensive, consumption is added fast prep above synthetic fibre and synthetic rubber.
Predict global synthetic resin was produced 2024 can relatively increased 13.77 million tons 2023, add fast 3.8% , relatively dropped 2023 1.7 percent, produce can put in main concentration northeastern inferior area, occupy the whole world to produce can increment 84% . From always produce will look, 5 big synthetic resin produced the whole world 2024 can predict to achieve three hundred and seventy-five million nine hundred and ninety thousand tons / year, the area of before the rank 3 is northeast respectively inferior, North America, middle east, and Western Europe rank falls to the 4th. From produce can the structure looks, polyolefin is occupied comparing still is 70% , among them polypropylene grows a percent to achieve 32% , polyethylene drops to 38% .
Commerce of global synthetic resin was added 2024 fast rise to 3.2% , relatively increased 3 percent 2023. Above all, improve as global economy, and China undertakes to southeast Asia and India the industry is transferred, southeast Asia and India import the colophony grow in quantity of China, North America and middle east. Next, although the European Union is the whole world the 2nd big chemical industry tastes manufacturing area, but suffer conflict of politics of fringe of shortage of transition of low carbon the sources of energy, oil gas, ground to wait for an influence, produce can occupy than reaching market share year after year drops. Europe especially Western Europe and middle east Ou Shi change a product to need for a long time for be less than, to Europe for the United States, middle east exit created market vacuum.
Consumption of our country synthetic resin is small 2024 promote
Predict consumption of our country synthetic resin was 120 million tons 2024, add fast 3.9% ; Produce can amount to 140 million tons / year, add fast 9.8% ; Crop 100 million tons, add fast 7.1% . Produce can add fast still prep above demand is added fast.
Growth of demand of domestic synthetic resin came from car, home appliance 2024, pack wait for a domain.
Car respect, sales volume predicted to break through 30 million to close greatly first 2024, outside needing inside, need to will send force jointly, predict to achieve 30.58 million, grow 5.8% compared to the same period. Be based on powerful 2023 exit momentum, and the judgement that is more than negative Xiang Li to measure to force to was being exported 2024, predict the car exported dimensions to appear on the stage again 2024 rank, reach 4.9 million, achieve the growth of nearly 13% .
Home appliance respect, demand of market of domestic home appliance increases, home appliance exit picks up, but still suffer be a burden on of Euramerican and landed market. Area of domestic landed complete expands, sale area picks up demand of benefit good home appliance. The “ 2024 protects the ” that reach a floor to will drive growth of demand of relevant home appliance stage by stage, opportunity of consumption of domestic home appliance is greater, pull move EPS (epispastic polystyrene) , the consumption of PS, ABS; Intelligent home appliance and development of green home appliance will become industry new distinguishing feature. Home appliance go to the countryside still had an opportunity 2024, newer displacement and buy demand newly all hopeful releases: Go 10 years, countryside is fast all-pervading freezer, washing machine enter newer displacement stage by stage period; Air conditioning demand is urban and rural difference is big, have constant growth space; Demand of town home appliance is given priority to with be being replaced newlier more, intelligence is changed transforming is potential opportunity dot, above domain hopeful releases pressure of partial colophony inventory. Home appliance exit picks up but still suffer be a burden on of Euramerican and landed market, home appliance is exported relatively picked up 2023, or will enlarge home appliance of Russia, Home Jin Zhuanguo to export market dimensions, alleviate thereby pressure of company profit atrophy; The suppress that Euramerican and landed market is led by usury, predict demand still slanted 2024 weak.
The industry that pack predicts to add fast put delay, but still be domain of brunt of market spending growth. Whole of benefit from benefit from of the industry that pack consumes pick up: 3 times from the history consumptive confidence rebounds course looks, exit, landed look forward to is firm pick up conduce to carry brace up consumptive confidence. Predict income name added fast hopeful to accelerate 2024, drive income and consumptive confidence to pick up; Plastic pack take the stuff that pack 25% the left and right sides, income growth and high spending will be pulled continuously use the plastic market that pack.
The industry that pack suffers 2, 3 industries impact is big: Short-term line of business of the service after seeing new coronal epidemic situation will still keep exalted, meal, postal carry still to good progress, the exciting industry that pack is downstream and relevant plastic manufacturing industry (soft drink, food, medicine) ; Industry is slow anabiosis, see promotion of manufacturing industry competition ability for a long time, as contractible as the difference that serves industry, or operation of company of the products of advanced position of benefit good industry that pack and product of middle reaches plasticity, without finalize the design product production. Express, outside sell a profession tall to packing raw material demand: In recent years express, outside sell an industry to add fast put delay, but compare other industry, still show two digit growth; Market of line electrify business drives express industry to be opposite plastic wait for the demand that pack to grow continuously; As a result of outside sell an industry opposite saturation, portfolio sells to add outside fast predicting fall after a rise, add to the chemical material demand such as PP, PE fast put delay, but demand still exuberant.
What synthetic resin of be a burden on consumes basically is landed industry, but degree of be a burden on is in reduce. Real-estate industry bought room latent capacity to still be in 2024, but be in be issued to lower levels to build ground level: Conclude from population dimensions, the adjustment of estate period still did not end, but the proportion that has the desire that buy a house already rose continuously from the periodic low 2022, and estate investment drops close narrow, housing mortgages interest rate to already fell to 10 years new low. Save oneself through government and financial adjusting control, enterprise stable and landed market: Each big house look forward to appears one after another capital pressure, make governmental policy promulgate and increase strength of industry market adjusting control; Each district cancels to be restricted to buy, reduce head pay wait for policy to maintain landed industry stability; Bibcock room look forward to is dish of vivid asset to accelerate a sale, optimize sale.
Chemical industry of the back end before restoring pair of real estate quickly of residential complete area tastes prop up somewhat: Appear to grow significantly as estate complete area, building head is bought because policy is adjusted,also will welcome growth, stimulative commodity house clinchs a deal the volume rises; The product requirement of industrial chemicals of landed back end such as plastic, polyurethane, chemical fibber also grows somewhat; Landed front chemical industry tastes the requirement that carries lag the product after real estate to grow, the chemical application product requirement such as front concrete, coating, insulation material predicts to grow.
Synthetic resin was produced 2024 can put in 12.59 million tons / year, relatively grew 9.8% 2023, advocate because be very much 2023 not put into production is produced can center 2024 put into production. Only polyolefin is produced can put in be as high as 9.35 million tons / year, relatively increased 1.6 million tons 2023.
Predict the polyolefin in 5 big synthetic resin was occupied 2024 than amounting to 60% . Among them, PE is produced can be 35.09 million tons / year, PP is 40.79 million tons / year. 5 big synthetic resin are produced can add fast 9.8% , but demand is added fast only 3.9% , supply and demand does not match a phenomenon serious.
Competition of domestic synthetic resin is intense 2024, will naturally compress profit space. Each company should lower through enhancing digitlization ability this, be changed through high end and green is changed raise product price, pass demand of internationalization augment market, promote an enterprise profit then.
