H1 puts in parent net 's charge compared to the same period - 64% , Q2 compared to the same period - 60%/ annulus is compared + 67% , adjust add to “ hold ” grade
The company will issue half annual report on August 11, 23H1 battalion receives 4.56 billion yuan, yoy-9.9% , net putting in a mother 's charge 350 million yuan (buckle be not 290 million yuan) , yoy-64% (buckle blame Yoy-71% ) ; Q2 battalion receives 2.35 billion yuan, yoy-7.7%/qoq+6% , net putting in a mother 's charge 220 million yuan, yoy-60%/qoq+67% , buckle blame net 190 million yuan, yoy-66%/qoq+100% . We predict company 23-25 year 8.2/10.5/12.4 of net putting in a mother 's charge 100 million yuan, corresponding EPS0.38/0.49/0.57 yuan, union can compare 23 years of Wind of company to anticipate average 22xPE consistently, asset of consideration company advanced position is in the majority, and because of the person of the same trade enterprise answer is produced bring about PVA competition pattern to worsen somewhat, give 23 years of 15.5xPE, target price 5.89 yuan, adjust add to “ hold ” grade.
PVA boom fall after a rise, h1 gain compared to the same period bear pressure
Yoy+6% of H1PVA sales volume reachs 108 thousand tons, battalion receives Yoy-35% to reach 1.35 billion yuan, all valence Yoy-38% reachs twelve thousand five hundred yuan / ton, yoy-24.2pct of wool interest rate comes 20.3% , yoy+12%/qoq+9% of Q2 sales volume reachs 56 thousand tons, battalion receives Yoy-55%/qoq-22% to reach 590 million yuan, all valence Yoy-60%/qoq-28% reachs ten thousand five hundred yuan / ton, wait for an element infirmly because of terminal demand, PVA boom fall after a rise. H1VAc/ exceeds short fine / section / latex / glue pink battalion receives Yoy-48%/-45%/+8%/-20%/-5% to 3/1.7/2.6/2.5/2.3 100 million yuan, 1.7%/3.8%/7.7%/23.2%/21.2% of wool interest rate (Yoy-35.4/-25.5/-1.7/-1.6/+5.5pct) ; PVB colophony / intermediate film / run of PVA optical thin coating receives 0.3/0.9/0.15 100 million yuan. H1 is not liquid assets to deal with wait for influence blame classics 60 million yuan, yoy-18pct of wool interest rate comes 14% .
Demand anabiosises get warm again after a cold spell of boom of the PVA that prop up, structure is finer in the product that prop up long-term gain center
According to 100 plain be filled with inspire confidence in sb, on August 11 PVA price eleven thousand five hundred yuan / ton, relatively Ji Chu + 15% , valence differs 5000 yuan / ton, relatively Ji Chu + 27% , hopeful of consideration home demand anabiosises, job of be issued to lower levels of low of overlay early days goes actively the element such as inventory, PVA boom hopeful is improved stage by stage. In long-term and character, downstream, low end produces overseas company transition can go out clear, and below the setting such as promotion of domestic product quality, we value the promotion of portion of whole world of domestic PVA business, in the meantime, in recent years PVA downstream PVB/ washs clothes coagulate the burgeoning demand such as bead film increases continuously, and supply carries dimension of 22 years of Hunan share of 100 thousand tons of unit answer produce, short-term without other new increase production can, PVA competition situation is opposite better, supply situation is optimized still the profit center of the hopeful PVA that prop up.
New project greets increment to cash period, send force continuously downstream new material
According to half annals, company 7 million smooth rice / year PVA optical thin coating, 6/2/1/2 latex of 10 thousand tons of VAE / glue pink / PVB colophony / the project such as PVB film already built go into operation in succession at 22 years, enter new project harvest at present. In build a project to include 60 thousand tons / year PVA of ethylene law special type upgrades transform a project (undertaking equipment installation is debugged) , 6000 tons / year project of water-solubility PVA fiber, 20 thousand tons / year project of film of PVB of high-end car class (already signed crucial equipment to order a contract) etc. Company at the same time announcement and film of associated Fangwan dimension grind the courtyard signs a technology to serve an agreement, future will reach optics of film, PVA around PVB colophony film and slant the technology of ” of “ card neck such as mating plate undertakes the technology serves tackling key problem mixing, hopeful of new material business grows continuously.
