Problem of ground predestined relationship causes Ou Xianhai to carry expenses rises to affect brief analyse to exit of domestic oil colophony

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7 months ago

Recently, because ground fringe politics is exasperate,the message says, magnate of 4 big shipping (MSC, Mashiji, Da Fei, Hebailuote) already suspended passing through the incident of course of the Red Sea of graceful heart channel brushs screen, it is good that this means the shipping between Asia-Europe to transfer escape the Suez Canal transfer escape the Suez Canal south Africa of by way of from the Red Sea look at horn. Analytic personage thinks, this makes the sailing time that to north from the Asia Ou Hedong's Mediterranean course needs to reach 10-15 day. In addition, marine cost raises quickly, according to the dimensions that the the Suez Canal interrupts and duration, predicting sea freight will rise considerably.

　　 Graph 1 2015-2023 year colophony of oil of 1-11 month China exports each continent contrast to pursue

Data origin: Customs data &

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As a result of domestic oil colophony exit is occupied taller, beforehand appraise was exported 2023 48% what take domestic consumption, and the section that Europe focuses as consumption, it is the continent with the biggest colophony of Chinese exit oil all the time, china is added every year to European exit nearly 10 years fast be in about 15% . China exported seventy-five thousand five hundred tons to Europe 2022, 1-11 month exported gross to already amounted to eighty-seven thousand five hundred tons to Europe 2023, annual beforehand appraise always exports a quantity to will achieve 96 thousand tons, enterprise of bibcock of domestic oil colophony all look forward to of downstream and as large as Europe glue has long-term contract.

　　 Graph 2 2015-2023 year country of 1-11 the middle of a month estimates comparative figure to European exit

Data origin: Customs data &

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Besides the influence to European market, bay of the Red Sea and circumjacent country are affected bigger also, take as China all the way development, exit of domestic oil colophony comes on the west inferior gross appears to grow quickly, china is opposite nearly 10 years on the west inferior exit is added every year fast in 20% , china is right 2022 on the west inferior export thirty-six thousand seven hundred tons, 1-11 month exported gross to already amounted to forty-one thousand one hundred tons to Europe 2023, annual beforehand appraise always exports a quantity to will achieve 45 thousand tons, involve colophony of oil of domestic each category and small and medium sized business. In this incident of politics of fringe of ground of the Red Sea is planted can see, basically affect Yemen with boreal area, among them of gross of Zhan Xiya of sand spy, Turkey 7 into around. Additional, yemen also includes African Egypt area with boreal area, egypt occupies Africa to always import the 50% above of the quantity.

　　 Graph 3 2015-2023 year country of 1-11 the middle of a month is right on the west inferior exit estimates comparative figure

Data origin: Customs data &

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To the near future Ou Xianhai carries expenses rises, the likelihood brings what influence to exit of domestic oil colophony,

Produce business of enterprise, foreign trade to refer to the part in the light of this incident, integral influence basically was centered January to negotiate with what grow the contract price that restrains a client, sea freight price has not rise clearly and freight just assumes a circumstance to still cannot talk things over each, and in oil colophony part low end cost of product itself goods is not high, of freight rise considerably will purchase cost to bring apparent promotion to overseas stock trader.

In light of whole, this marine expenses rises, affect Europe, on the west inferior, the course such as Africa, and these a few area are the section that exit of domestic oil colophony focuses quite, in the meantime, oil colophony of the whole world produces can main concentration northeastern inferior with southeast Asia area, winter exit still depends on the Red Sea to Europe. Additional, was Chinese Spring Festival in Feburary, foreign factory or concentration had filling money January. Short-term inside order of domestic bibcock manufacturer is nervous, shipment of partial small and medium sized business puts delay, freight of export of great capacity rises considerably or hit the shipment rate that controls small and medium sized business further, and be issued to lower levels of price of overlay raw material, manufacturer shipment pressure will go tall, and bibcock manufacturer rises considerably because of marine cost, consign order difficulty or increase.