After market of not saturated colophony appeared home to go up first roughly first half of the year 2023, drop situation, cost end is propped up by turn by force follow-up of weak, downstream demand not free, it is colophony market progressively bear the main reason that press. In light of second half of the year, the surrive of market of main raw material such as styrene, suitable anhydride goes weak to anticipate, cost all is worth or relatively continue to drop first half of the year, in addition, what the terminal trade demand such as estate releases is strong anticipate remain to fulfil, demand carries prop up or lose relatively situation. Predicting second half of the year is not saturated colophony market whole slants to move infirmly. Home is not saturated first half of the year before colophony market focus tall hind low, level sex climbs litre of prices to will appear in April before the first ten days of a month, drop continuously later, styrene of main raw material, suitable anhydride and the raw material price such as 2 glycol come first quarter rise at the beginning of 2 quarters drive colophony cost wide cut to carry litre, it is the main reason that colophony rises in price, market of 5-6 month raw material drops quickly, cost end props up colophony to lose, the price follows drop. 1-6 lunar corona east the area is not saturated colophony 196# market all valence is in 9315 yuan / ton, drop compared to the same period 17.92% ; High first half of the year point is in 9550 yuan / ton, appear in the last ten-day of a month in April; Low is in 8600 yuan / ton, will appear in June bottom.
Colophony demand did not appear to be improved apparently first half of the year, together with cost props up progressively hasten to lose, colophony market slants empty mood diffuses, although gain lasts low fan, but below shipment pressure, enterprise still passivity lets value.
Produce first half of the year can continue to grow, but demand follow-up is insufficient, negative charge of colophony market start working is small, produce and sale two weak.
Market of not saturated colophony offers home to need by force to lose first half of the year. Supply end to produce can continue to increase, 1-6 month has the accumulative total such as group of Guangxi China rice huller, flourishing forest to make an appointment with 350 thousand tons to be produced newly early or late can release, bear of average start working is in the market 29% around, relatively the corresponding period rose last year 5 percent, but 5-6 month, suffer downstream order follow-up business of flabby, holiday stops the influence such as the overhaul, colophony market start working shows now to fall situation, to in June end, market whole start working falls to 28% around; Crop of not saturated colophony is 1-6 month about 987 thousand tons, grow 21.21% compared to the same period. Import side, because output of country of not saturated colophony is self-sufficient,spend tall, import volume is less, finite to market impact, accumulative total of not saturated colophony imports 1-5 month 7000 tons, drop compared to the same period 26.57% , predict to will import a quantity to keep low in June, annulus is more finite than change.
Demand end, suffer the terminal industry such as estate to restore slow influence, the colophony such as tile of stone material, daylighting is downstream product requirement releases inadequacy, rhythm of shipment of enterprise of not saturated colophony slants delay, foreign trade demand picks up somewhat, 1-5 month accumulative total exports a quantity to be in forty-three thousand eight hundred tons, grow 37.04% compared to the same period, exit depend on sb or sth for existence is spent rise to 5.58% around, but whole will see market of not saturated colophony still demand of less than trade is given priority to, the belt of exit the movement is used relatively finite. Enter in June, high temperature seasonal the element increases, the raw material market such as together with styrene drops continuously, colophony purchases intent to continue to turn downstream weak, enterprise weak point stops, fall negative wait for control inventory, two end all have colophony market supply and demand turn weak.
Comparative 2022 the corresponding period, whole of demand of not saturated first half of the year 2023 colophony increases, as prevent by 2022 accuse policy to optimize, downstream produce and sale is reached on colophony carry return to normal rhythm, from the point of apparent consumption, consumption of apparent of not saturated colophony holds 1-4 month growth, 5-6 month turns to drop, carry with wide cut of early days cost litre, seasonal off-season next market produce and sale turn weak wait for an element to all have direct correlation.
Second half of the year, the main factor that affects market of not saturated colophony to move still depends on the change of cost and demand, in addition, beautiful couplet store monetary policy adjusts the price of the sources of energy below to change wait for uncertainty of existence of macroscopical face element, attention is spent to market perturbed force.
Beautiful couplet store progressively time-out is added breath, oil price centre or on move, but lower interest probability is inferior and demand is propped up change infirmly, carry rise a space to suffer be restricted. Beautiful couplet store add cease to enter end gradually, add the breath suppress to oil price action is being reduced stage by stage, do not have friendly intercourse beautiful couplet store will discuss in June look on breath statement, still have twice inside year add interest is potential. In the meantime, beautiful couplet store on aid of regulate the menstrual function anticipates, reduce unemployment rate to anticipate, and on move inflation to anticipate, this means the probability that lowers interest inside year inferior. Exceed expectant possibility to add in ceasing to be in to oil price short-term inside still have certain suppress, but because add breath process to put delay and enter end, add the breath suppress to oil price action is being reduced stage by stage. In addition, demand end has busy season and Chinese demand to anabiosis prop up, and supply upright increment to be offsetted by Ou Peike reduction of output, because big probability of market of oil of this second half of the year presents the position that demand exceeds supply, the probability that moves on oil price centre is higher.
Not saturated colophony produces second half of the year need two end to all growth anticipates, but demand is added fast slant delay, main area or still put pressure. Partial colophony enterprise is put in 3 quarters enlarge produces a plan, 9-10 month suffers high temperature weather to decrease, the interest good factor such as the stock up before holiday is propped up, demand is carried or appear to feedback, in addition, macroscopical economy expects second half of the year continue to anabiosis, the terminal trade demand such as estate, capital construction is released stage by stage, the colophony such as stone material, glass reinforced plastics is downstream product requirement or corresponding growth. In light of whole, market of short line colophony or maintain supply and demand two weak weak reality and supply and demand two those who add is strong anticipate rich weichis, but strong anticipate cash strength remains to observe, to supply and demand of market of second half of the year, course of study person discretion of state of mind is hopeful. Additional, styrene of main raw material is in second half of the year or after appearing to lose first go by force infirmly again situation, suitable anhydride is maintained slant weak concussion goes situation, the integral be issued to lower levels of cost face, will go to colophony price situation form relatively direct direction drive.
Integrated afore-mentioned analysises,
Risk clew: Beautiful couplet store add breath pace continuance, abroad economy is added fast super- anticipate glide to appear even decline; The raw material price such as crude oil drops extent is exceeded anticipate; Risk of ground predestined relationship exceeds anticipate.
