2023 first half of the year, value of market of not saturated colophony takes home continuously low. Before the Spring Festival, market of not saturated colophony enters country ahead of schedule put holiday, the price is unexpected dish of use act advocate, collective of the heavy goods after the section goes tall, not saturated colophony follows narrow cut of raw material price goes tall, but start of the terminal after the section is slower, demand restores logy, the market follows go up lack of power, after prices rises somewhat fall after a rise. Will come April first half of the year this year June end, market of not saturated colophony is in home continuously reduce level, price of whole of low end makings is next to in epidemic situation is earlier 2020, achieve the history second low-level, with price of historical extreme value difference narrows ceaselessly; After dragon boat festival (in June the last ten-day of a month) , suffer callback of price of raw material styrene, suitable anhydride, benzene anhydride to drive, the market falls put delay somewhat, hand in cast a circumstance to be improved somewhat. End on June 30 closing quotation, hua Dong is not saturated homebred makings discusses colophony market interval 8900-9000 yuan / ton, relatively on June 21 (before dragon boat festival) drop on average be in 300 yuan / or so tons.
1, first half of the year market reviewing
The last ten-day of a month of month of watch 1 6 is not saturated price of spot market of colophony Hua Dong is comparative
Unit: Yuan / ton
The market | Brand | On June 30 | On June 21 | Go up drop value | Go up drop |
Hua Dong market | DC191 | 7600 | 8000 | - 400 | - 5.00% |
191# | 8200 | 8500 | - 300 | - 3.53% | |
196# | 8900 | 9200 | - 300 | - 3.26% |
2023 first half of the year, be dropped continuously by contradiction of supply and demand and raw material wait for influence of power of multiple benefit pneumatics to fall, home is not saturated colophony market value drops ceaselessly. Enter the phase in year, the timing below market of not saturated colophony spends home to put delay somewhat, small make up think to be like next reasons:
1. Index of domestic manufacturing industry will pick up somewhat in June. National statistic bureau serves course of study to investigate content shedding of center and China and the data that purchase federation to will be released on June 30 to show, in June, manufacturing industry PMI is 49.0% , rise than May 0.2 percent. Although index of domestic manufacturing industry still manages vicissitude line lower part this month, but reaction economy consolidates ceaselessly to good foundation. Manufacturing industry restores stage by stage, downstream and total order and start working situation are overall to good, certain level is aided turn downstream user state of mind to good, drive market of not saturated colophony to drop then put delay.
2. Price of current raw material is in low, market of not saturated colophony followings raw material price falls in drop, itself also is in the history second low-level, upright price and colophony price of short duration do not have raw material to reduce a space considerably, and the price falls in first half of the year drop, start working of not saturated colophony also drops continuously, integral start working falls to only 2-3 is become around. Meanwhile, profit also makes one of main reasons that continueing to be reduced substantially, because this is not saturated,colophony drops put delay in succession.
2. Raw material of the upper reaches before dragon boat festival picks up continuously, cost is propped up increase apparently.
2023 around of dragon boat festival, styrene of upriver raw material, suitable anhydride, benzene anhydride all has different level to drop, drop 225 yuan / ton, 75 yuan / ton, 150 yuan / ton, drop 3.03% , 2.01% , not saturated colophony and styrene are the smallest price difference is narrow reach 1705 yuan / ton around, trade cost pressure also decreases accordingly. After dragon boat festival, although styrene stops go up, but the others raw material all differs of degree drop, cost face of short duration was not formed to state of mind of market of not saturated colophony prop up.
3.Spot price of not saturated colophony considerably under the history average level, drop situation put delay in succession
According to
3.1, analysis of imports and exports
Express statistic of data of imports and exports of product of not saturated first half of the year 22023 colophony
Unit: 10 thousand tons
Category | Import an amount completely | Speak a volume completely |
2023 1-5 month | 6962.32 | 43835.98 |
2022 1-5 month | 9478.89 | 31989.36 |
Compared to the same period | + 36.15% | + 37.03% |
2023 first half of the year beforehand appraise | 8322.87 | 54886.43 |
Actual first half of the year 2022 | 11371.06 | 39101.26 |
Compared to the same period | - 26.81% | + 40.37% |
4, main area forecasts second half of the year
Express 3 2023-2024 year new increase production of industry of not saturated colophony can schedule of put into production
Area | Enterprise abbreviation | Produce can (10 thousand tons / year) | Time of put into production |
Henan | Unseal limited company of 9 chemical industry of city | 15 | 2023 the end of the year |
Shandong | Shandong intermediate appropriate | 10 | 2023 8-9 month |
Sichuan | Chengdu establishs limited company of triumphant emperor chemical industry newly | 10 | 2023 second half of the year |
Henan | Limited company of science and technology of new material of Pu Yang Jingsen | 5.5 | 2023 second half of the year |
Aggregate | 4 | 45.5 | - - |
Not saturated colophony supplied home of second half of the year 2023 will grow somewhat, second half of the year unseals appropriate of intermediate of 9 150 thousand tons of device, Shandong 100 thousand tons of device, Chengdu Xin Likai emperor scene of 100 thousand tons of device, Pu Yang dark 55 thousand / ton wait for device to predict to be able to be produced as scheduled, supply will continue to increase, superfluous to the area is being supplied for saturated market at present will send more serious, especially Henan market, enlarge of market of Henan of second half of the year can 205 thousand tons yield can, although second half of the year enhances the market to be able to level sex restores an influence, but continuously enlarge can be affected below, terminal order for goods will be divided up, price competition will be sent more intense.
Consumption of second half of the year was forecasted 2023 will apparent prep above first half of the year, accompany of all kinds policy to come on stage, domestic economy hopeful improves, second half of the year greets Jin Jiuyin the traditional busy season of 10, demand also is met somewhat get warm again after a cold spell.
5, prices is forecasted
At the beginning of 2023, although spread can be overall first half of the year not much, but supply end to look, domestic factory is produced can serious superfluous, demand restores together with to anticipate not as good as this year, rate of company go into operation is general low, import source also decreases subsequently, for shipment enterprise many look centers overseas, exit of second half of the year predicts to continue to increase, a few new unit such as Henan of second half of the year, Shandong, Sichuan plan put into production, UPR whole start working anticipates tall, spend high temperature off-season, will greet Jin Jiuyin the traditional busy season of 10, downstream order also can improve somewhat, enhance kind of colophony demand to will increase, in light of whole, 2023 market of second half of the year will good first half of the year.
Before whole adds fast hopeful tall hind low. 2023 second half of the year, demand of not saturated colophony will improve somewhat, but considering macroscopical element and inflationary factor, second half of the year looked 2023, the machine rate that in keeping firm, rises is older.
