The violent wind of heavy goods price raises the trend that may break green energy cost to drop ceaselessly, yield of downstream development company will glide considerably accordingly. Carbon counteracts setting to fall, of raw material price rise does meeting block stop the process of transition of the sources of energy? 　 comes one many year, new coronal epidemic situation brings negative effect of economy inside limits, more and more showing come out. 2020, when economy and crude oil demand because of epidemic situation walking is faltering, appear even history last when “ loses oil price ” , after imagining a year very hard, international oil is fiducial — Bulunte crude price picks up again to col of every pails of 75 dollars, the orgnaization such as Gao Cheng, beautiful silver is to forecast next year oil price to may break through 100 dollars more. In the near future petroleum demand will continue to supply growth more than, this may be oil before consumption reachs peak value hind rise in price. And those who rise is oil not just, raw material of coal, nonferrous metal, ore is in etc in going one year, experienced almost soare. In home, coal city is off-season this year not weak, advocate inventory of producing area colliery is critical, pull tram to queue up to grab the phenomenal emersion of outfit, coal price lasts violent wind rises. Merchandise on hand of coal of motivation of CCTD annulus Bohai Sea consults valence shows, arrive from March 1 on May 10, the dynamical coal of 5500 kilocalorie spot price from 571 yuan / ton go up to 865 yuan / ton, go up more than 51% . On June 4, had achieved 902 yuan / ton, coal of report of a lot of power plants had exceeded every tons into furnace price 1000 yuan. Rolled steel price also appeared to be climbed considerably litre. In May the middle ten days of a month, rolled steel market ton of steel of 8 great variety all valence broke through 6600 yuan, closer than nodding 6200 yuan of tower above high 2008 400 yuan, than last year the corresponding period rose every tons 2800 yuan, compared to the same period amplitude 75% . The data that association of iron and steel industry provides shows, up to May the middle ten days of a month, index of rolled steel price rises than the beginning of the year 23.95% . Regard foundation of wind electric field, tower as canister, lead plane (hub, main shaft, bearing, gear case) main raw material, of rolled steel rise in price pressure conducted wind cable industry directly. Besides coal, oil, rolled steel these heavy goods rocket, stuff of a few metals is the high point that received 10 years more. This year on May 7, price of human relations copper is broken through 2011 10184 dollars / ton high point; On May 10, dish in with 10747.5 dollars / ton the price achieves a history new tall, relatively low went up last year for 145.9% . 2021, industry of smooth hot season returned to “ to embrace silicon to be the times of king ” again. The silicon makings that regards foundation of component of smooth hot season as raw material appears soare trend, silicon makings drives silicon chip to go up, silicon chip drives package to go up, caused then rise in price a chain ofly wet. The data of branch of industry of silicon of association of nonferrous metal industry shows, in June the 2nd week, domestic single crystal answer cast makings price interval to be in 20.8-22.1 10 thousand yuan / ton, clinch a deal all valence is two hundred and seventeen thousand two hundred yuan / ton, interval of compact makings price is in single crystal 20.5-21.9 10 thousand yuan / ton, clinch a deal all valence is two hundred and thirteen thousand four hundred yuan / ton. And this year the beginning of the year, single crystal is compact makings price is low it is 82 thousand yuan only / ton, time of half an year rose in price 2.6 times. The economy after epidemic situation anabiosises those who drove raw material rise, without doubt, this brought unprecedented cost pressure to downstream production enterprise, energy development company is affected blame very. Below the setting that counteracts ” in “ carbon, the supply that the rising, exuberant to raw material demand that green invests brings about is nervous, the industry produces expansible not to match downstream on chain, multiple action drove the price mad go up. And increase as production cost, the gain space of downstream enterprise is gobbled up, whether can this affect the enthusiasm of downstream investment? This how long to rise in price to still will last? 　 of 01 drive element without doubt, this raw material rises is a gender. Be affected by new coronal epidemic situation, economy goes low. Began in March from last year, to help city further, inside limits, each country is carrying out large-scale finance and money to stimulate measure, euramerican majority adopts economy to upset a plan. The green that does obeisance to the American infrastructure that ascends 2.3 trillion dollar to invest plan and Europe for instance is new politics, comfortable monetary liquidity facilitated of epicycle heavy goods rise. Basically develop to be pounded to answer epidemic situation, choose “ to open brake to turn on the water in succession ” , execute continuously quantify loose policy, become the main factor that prompts heavy goods to rise in price. Have metallic property like the heavy goods such as rolled steel, iron ore, fluidity is comfortable for the market hype offerred an opportunity, anticipate in the market strengthened atmosphere falls, congenial behavior aids the blame reason that promoted heavy goods to rise. From the point of supply end, the exploitation of main mineral products compares concentration relatively. And basically be like situation of South-American resource epidemic situation extractingly at present still austere, the iteration of epidemic situation and vaccinal and vaccinal rate are inferior extract and carry what affected mineral products, bring about supply to add fast put delay. The copper mine of Chile produces country of big copper production can be damaged, crop of river valley of fresh water of supplier of big iron ore is cut, this rises in price for copper and iron ore added a fire. And in home, coal company is under environmental protection and safe and double pressure, pass the colliery measure that stop more, so gross has the colliery of supply side to decrease certainly, this causes the problem of supply deficiency. In demand end, control gradually as epidemic situation, from last year second half of the year rises, economy takes the lead in anabiosising, epidemic situation improves stage by stage. Since this year, accelerate ceaselessly as speed of have an inoculation of each country vaccine especially, vaccinal and vaccinal rate rises ceaselessly, economy anabiosises anticipate strengthen ceaselessly, turn demand of tall heavy goods. Analysis of the personage inside course of study thinks, economy is accelerated anabiosis, the shortage below small stock and Gao Liu stir the inflation below the gender, and crop of a few mineral products restores slow increase short-term amlposition to push with demand tall heavy goods price. What be worth to be carried particularly is, sexual “ carbon counteracts the policy related ” farther also aggravate short-term supply and demand is contradictory, rise from what drive heavy goods price somehow. What the rapid growth that green invests also is considered as this round of heavy goods to rise is main because of,move one of. Mining industry tycoon needs and need Henry of · of Michael of apparitor of develop group seat (MikeHenry) express when accepting Peng Bo company to interview: The big trend of theme of “ population growth, electrification and transition of the sources of energy, demand of long-term heavy goods is good in will adumbrative move. ”Add as the demand to clean energy technology try to reach a government to roll out green colour stimulus to plan, especially the rapid development of wind report, smooth hot season and electric car, bring about the market to wait for the demand of raw material to go up further to silicon, lithium, cobaltic, iron ore raise. According to arrange of international the sources of energy (IEA) data, achieve the goal of Parisian climate agreement, will break up two times than now to key and rare and mineral demand to 2040. The mineral products resource that an electric car needs is 6 times of the car more traditional. The mineral products resource that onshore wind electric field needs is 9 times of power plant burning gas. The electric car that in the near future the amount adds quickly and batteries need many cobalt, nickel and lithium, and rare-earth element, wind cable investment still needs much rare ground and zinc. Did not come 20 years, the demand of lithium will be climbed because of the use of batteries rise 40 times; At present copper cash still does not have particularly appropriate substitute, the copper that electric car place needs is internal-combustion engine car is fourfold; The copper with every made of baked clay million spends onshore wind electric field thick and fast is traditional power plant is fourfold. Notable is, crucial and mineral the key that already became security of each country energy now, the crucial and mineral production that place of clean energy technology requires is centered more than oil market. For example, congo democracy republic produced the cobalt of on 60% above, this is a kind of important batteries material. IEA proposal, lv of each country take an examination lays in a few keys mineral, develop the venture that supplies shortage in order to be opposite. Of demand exuberant caused supply tension, rise in price, however pressure of raw material price is conducted ceaselessly again downstream, erode downstream investment gain ceaselessly, block up invests step. · compares Fadihe of Director IEA executive Luo Er (FatihBirol) expresses: “ increases as a result of cost, transition of the sources of energy can put delay for certain. If raw material supplies nervous problem not to try to solve, the pace that may make march toward clean the sources of energy slows, cost is higher, the international that then block up should change to climate tries hard. ”　 of 02 growth paradox is in 10 years of in the past, report of zephyr of smooth hot season makes the kind of the sources of energy with rapid growth, core element depends on dropping quickly of cost. But trend of this one growth may rise because of raw material and changeover. the production cost that the investment of report of zephyr of smooth hot season is upsurged enthusiasticly is frightened withdrew a step, be in phase of refuse to budge, wrestle, standstill at present. At the beginning of June, the issue of difficulty of heat of industry of smooth hot season that guild is holding smooth hot season points out on the informal discussion, from the beginning of the year up to now Guang Fugui expects rise in price exceed 150% , silicon chip rises adjacent 60% , batteries piece rise 4% , package rises 8% , cause a few new projects directly defer. From last year the 3rd quarter begins, price of polycrystalline silicon raw material begins to go up raise. Those who be based on Guang Fufa to exhibit is good anticipate, silicon chip and batteries piece produce can rapid dilate, for a short while silicon makings was become for popular goods. “ from May 2018 31 later, market of whole of smooth hot season drops, technology of cut of King Kong line popularizes dosage of makings letting silicon to reduce 30% , silicon expects the price goes low continuously, bring about a lot of silicon to expect the enterprise drops broken cost price, close down eventually. Silicon feed business reduces a surplus 27 times from 2019 11. the four seasons spent machine of outfit of smooth hot season to be as high as 30GW last year, silicon expects price thenceforth rises, middle reaches silicon chip and batteries piece the industry appeared again many enlarge is produced. But silicon makings attributes chemical trade, produce can periodic it is probably 1 year half, create the situation with current silicon popular makings. ” collects Wang Shujuan of Zhi Guangfu author to say. Silicon chip produces makings of silicon of Yuanchao of can outspread speed to produce can outspread rate, two link fail to be the same as frequency resonance, made the main reason that creates current situation of trade of smooth hot season, and also be faced with upper reaches to supply the cost pressure that catenary is conducted and comes downstream. Of “ polycrystalline silicon downstream, it is very painful ” , ursine hypo of solar energy vice-president is in Atesi say in the conference, “ glass and enclose material to rise in price. Exchange rate influence and case of sea freight rate soare, above element affects more than 6 cent to selling gross profit downstream in all. At present downstream current situation is, all and downstream company does not have a gain, everybody is in at present reduction of output. ”Rate of package start working is low had made a trade a kind of common phenomenon. Enterprise of a few smooth hot season already lowered start working rate considerably, reduction of output even stop production, partial order begins phenomenon of occurrence break a contact, break one's promise, industrial development faces bigger sincere trade risk. Afflictive more than still it is manufacturer, development business also felt the pressure that comes from upper reaches. Get of package value rise, yield of downstream power station also will be squashed. Cable of “ component, bracket, wire is going up, land price also is rising, project development expenses is rising. If every tile cost raises package 0.3 yuan, yield reduces a percent. “ Wang Shujuan says. Of yield the inhibition that reducing brought immediate result is pair of downstream demand. At present domestic development business has moved “ the anticipation of yield of small power station, from 8% fall 6-6.5% , some likelihoods return short of. Negotiable securities of the letter in ” studies Hua Pengwei of analyst of banquet of new the sources of energy of ministry power facilities says. The 630 important time that are industry of smooth hot season are nodded, because of and the policy limitation of net allowance time limit, in place of these two time, project of domestic smooth dog days is centered and net, demand is exuberant. But at present, this year won't reappear “630 grabs the ” that install tide. Holiday of “ end midday is very much package factory had a holiday, at present rate of small plant go into operation is in about 30% , big plant is in 50% the left and right sides, the business that the proprietor of an enterprise should do now is to go inventory. ” . According to " the sources of energy " magazine reporter understanding, pace of invite public bidding of project of component of domestic smooth dog days already considerably slow down. An analyst expresses Solarzoom, rise in price the state-owned electric power that may force next year of remit to of tycoon general project. This also means incur loss through delay to may make became 17 years to come to what volume of solar energy installation drops 2021 to enough greatly year. In a report of Peng rich new energy resources in the near future also appreciably reduced chance of outfit of smooth 2021 hot season forecast, reason is the material that includes polycrystalline silicon inside rises in price. According to estimation, in India, the project with about 10 made of baked clay auspicious may be affected, at the same time large project of the United States may be deferred. And wind cable industry also encounters similar case. Wait for fundamental material because of rolled steel, copper rise, the component business of fan had felt the pressure of cost. In wind cable industry, in thick board, the upriver commodity price such as steel of ferrosilicon, whorl, epoxy resin also rise of take advantage of an opportunity. Rolled steel is the important raw material of the component such as forging of canister of wind report tower, dynamo casting. In the capacity of total cost steel of wind phone equipment, in thick board the product is occupied than nearly 7 into. Analysis of negotiable securities orgnaization shows, rolled steel occupies the 50-80% of cost of link of forging of casting of wind report middle reaches, the gain ability of this link is very sensitive to steel price. This is meant, once steel price jumps,go up, wind report the profit space of whole set of equipment will be compressed further. The suitable wind energy of day of tower tube business that precedes as home is investing interactive smooth platform scale, pattern of price of addition of tower canister cost, of raw material rise in price, the company also can adjust product price, company product already from January 7000 go up to be close to nearly more 10 thousand, conduct price pressure downstream production business. Near future of dimension Si Dasi announces one of manufacturer of big wind- driven turbine external will raise its fan price, because in heavy goods prosperity brings about inflationary risk ascendant circumstance to fall, iron and steel increases with carriage cost, fan production cost also is rising. This evidence shows violent wind of heavy goods price raises the trend that may break green energy cost to drop ceaselessly. And what differ with foreign circumstance is, from this year domestic fan manufacturer begins to compete to warming up first, overall the price is going low all the time, component and overall company profit margin continues to be squashed, if add outfit machine demand newly to did not appear to rise considerably, prospective wind report makes what the enterprise is faced with live pressure can grow in intensity. In home, onshore fan does not exceed 3000 yuan / the price of KW wins the bid to already became fan to bid general trends. Recently, the country casts bridge of Beijing University of spring of Gansu Province wine electric field of 200 million made of baked clay wind announces division of B of electric field of the 7th wind fan sends bid price. This fan invite public bidding contains tower canister invite public bidding, intelligence of the sources of energy of golden wind science and technology, distant view, bright this world, Shanghai is Oriental and electric, electric wait for 9 overall business is participated in bid, among them 31 heavy can Inc. (next weighing 31 heavy can) take out 2360 yuan / the low quoted price of the canister that contain a tower of kilowatt. That is to say price of fan main engine falls defeat every kilowatt 2000 yuan. One aspect of the matter is the raw material that rises continuously, one aspect of the matter is the fan price of ceaseless depress, to be in the component among business is mixed overall business, how controlling good cost is the one big challenge that is placed before them. In interview, fan is overall the company is right " the sources of energy " the records shows, the influence that although wind report is overall,is risen in price by raw material a little lag, defer a few, but they still feel the pressure that supplies chain industry, besides raw material, the administrative cost of the enterprise, labour cost also is rising. “ if the size that you consider to control cost to need to raise stand-alone, same the wind field with 50 made of baked clay million, of the seat number reduce zephyr machine amount decrease, can let cost drop. But such word can have a contradiction, will tell to fan manufacturer, made of baked clay unit of ten when originally I can use maturity 3 sign is smooth consign, but to reduce cost, upriver raw material may rise even, I may be about to cover with tiles with 4 million, use 5 million watt possibly even. This is very contradictory. Controller of manufacturer of a fan of ” country is right " the sources of energy " the records shows. Actual condition is, fan price war is intense with each passing day, presumable bids the price has fallen cut cost bottom line. Fan manufacturer profit margin is affected by huge, the personage inside course of study also expresses concern to the fan quality below low. President of Inc. of sunshine power source is made public on the SNEC plenary meeting that Cao Renxian holds in the near future express, on the road that is in what carbon amounts to a peak, facing the road of hard choice and hardships. Should say now is merely begin, have very good market, but the industry still is facing rife challenge. At present the contradiction of supply and demand of industrial catenary is put in rich play chess, put in a lot of abnormal phenomena. Nowadays, price of fossil the sources of energy rises generally, one share capital is met circumfluence is supreme carbolic industry, on the other hand, catenary of clean energy industry rises in price, reduce those who bring downstream yield, affect the rate that green industry grows then. How to balance traditional the sources of energy and the relation that clean the sources of energy invests, the rate that transition of the sources of energy affects on certain level. But also the expert reminds, the growth rate that need not fear our country new energy resources invests overly, “ is right our country, decreasing carbon is political task, regard investment as the state-owned company of main body, even if drops in yield, below the state of small even profit, can continue increase the investment of project of new energy resources. ”The path 　 of 03 broken solution faces the contradiction that two end of supply and demand exist, how the issue that Shu solution became instantly to be badly in need of solving to the enterprise from government, industry. Since May, for control mad the price that go up, director branch moves again and again. On May 23, hair change appoint, the key company that 5 branches such as the meeting combined card inspect to talk about the industry such as iron ore, rolled steel, copper, aluminium to have stronger market force about; On May 25, hair change appoint publish “ 945 ” period deepens price mechanism to reform action program, put forward to do the transaction of heavy goods price such as good iron ore, copper, corn to answer. On May 12, 19 days mix 26 days, standing conference pays close attention to the State Council 3 times heavy goods price rises quickly problem, emphasize protecting for certain price, blow corner Ju Ji, fool case of raise up the price to wait for behavior. On June 22, commissariat and bureau of reserve of goods and materials release announcement to say, reserve of goods and materials adjusts the center decides the near future begins to put in approved reserve of aluminous, zinc, copper 2021. Hair change appoint news spokesman Meng Wei expressed a few days ago, pass a series of act, from eye antecedent condition looks, market speculation hype begins to drop in temperature, partial heavy goods, for instance the commodity price such as iron ore, rolled steel, copper appeared different rate fall after a rise. This specification heavy goods rises be affected by the gender, inflation affects input sex outside, put in the market to follow suit really hype fools case of raise up the price to wait even deviate from the phenomenon of main area. And in energy industry, more outstanding is an industry downstream evolution appeared in coordination on catenary problem. It is with industry of smooth hot season exemple, supplied smooth hot season to use polycrystalline silicon 2021 580 thousand tons, among them 480 thousand tons are connected by home power always auspicious, protect Li Xiexin, new special 6 enterprises such as industry of silicon of the sources of energy, encyclopedia new energy resources, Oriental hope, Asia are offerred (still have 4 months yield business of 100 tons of stage) , germany covers with tiles gram and base of Korea OCI Malaysia make an appointment with 100 thousand tons. In all 580 thousand tons of makings, can produce 193 auspicious made of baked clay package about. “2021 year auspicious of outfit machine predicting 161-204 is made of baked clay, the component of smooth hot season of blame crystal silicon such as the film that considers outfit machine to have certain amount. The supply of polycrystalline silicon and outfit machine demand match. But because silicon chip, batteries, component carries enlarge to produce swift and violent especially silicon chip is produced can exceed 300GW, ask vessel 400GW, swim up and down the long sheet that does not lock up valence is measured through the lock between big plant, broke up makings of 95% above silicon, and every months each are downstream big plant and fragmentary the silicon chip small plant that purchase, hope to increase silicon makings to purchase an amount, under scare buying, push price of tall silicon makings all the way. Sign of Lv Jin of vice director of committee of experts of branch of industry of silicon of association of industry of ” nonferrous metal says. Enlarge of front of industry of smooth hot season can be periodic long, enlarge produces time to grow, carry after that produce the setting that can amount to peak, carbon counteract in carbon to fall, dilate is gotten very fast, bring about unbalance of supply and demand. On May 20, bureau of the sources of energy is released about " inform about what development of wind report, Guang Fufa report built concerned item 2021 " , weigh “ fail inside year and the project putting an amount of the net, by each provincial energy director the branch plans as a whole, direct offer ensures a gender into follow-up year and net limits ” , be in that is to say price of current raw material all the way below the situation that violent wind rises, wide deadline of a year gave development company more sufficient time, project dominant authority gave development company. On May 27, when answer user leaves a message, bureau of the sources of energy expresses, “ our height takes catenary of new energy industry seriously to rise in price the influence of industries of pair of smooth hot season, studying the relevant policy such as the government of industry of Guang Fufa cable 2021 and price jointly with concerned respect at present, will drive policy to come on stage next, to the industry development creates relatively clear policy border, stimulative industry grows smoothly in order. ”Subsequently, guild releases smooth hot season external " the appeal that can develop continuously about promoting health of industry of smooth hot season " , " the appeal " say, since nearly 3 months, polycrystalline silicon price rises considerably, already achieved at present last year the 2.5 times above of the end of the year, in Guang Fufa n price gets online and the setting of tie of ” of tigidity of “ of investment gain rate falls, to whole light volt industry produced bigger negative effect. Be opposite to reduce silicon to expect the price rises considerably bad influence of the industry, membership of association appeal proposal and enterprise of smooth hot season are abide by the law add up to compasses, reason to manage, respect contracted spirit, the goods of excessive store up that boycotts product of pair of polycrystalline silicon, silicon chip self-consciously, force up price behavior, and the congenial behavior that is not oneself to produce management demand. Boycott the misfeasance of the baleful competition such as dumping of low of batteries component link self-consciously, price of makings letting silicon returns normal interval as soon as possible, drive industry health to be able to develop continuously jointly. In the meantime, the proposal makes clear policy further about the branch, the price of raw material of smooth hot season such as attention polycrystalline silicon rises too quickly problem, guide in time. Of power station of downstream light bend over grab outfit, also can make in certain period industrial chain take up. Enterprise of power station of guild appeal smooth hot season is not eager to smooth hot season year end is grabbed outfit, in order to give catenary of industry of “ upper reaches each link more amortize space ” . And in upper reaches, silicon expects the company also is undertaking enlarge is produced actively, the capital outside a few industries enters silicon makings industry, predict makings of silicon of second half of the year supplied the increment that has 50% above 2022. But opposite at still be being produced ferally downstream can, supply demand relations alleviates very hard still. “ is corresponding terminal installation amount will look only, have the silicon in build and be prepared to expect the project was finished 2023 put into production and amount to postpartum, more than 1 million tons silicon makings can produce close 350GW package. At the appointed time silicon makings also will join smooth hot season to produce can superfluous range. ” Lv prize says. Face such situation, to be the company with industry old deep ploughing, maintaining reason is extremely difficult more. The order with exsanguine “ is not done stoutly, aux would rather stop production of reduction of output. Old yield can stop first, enlarge is produced newly can, reduce cost. The broaden sources of income and reduce expenditure on whole, xiu Lian is good oneself exercise to benefit the internal organs, live in what industry health maintains in difficulty. ” Xiong Haibo says. Be aimed at current situation of trade of smooth hot season, president of grand radical share makes public Zhong Baoshen to appeal, undertake the strategy cooperates between the enterprise, plan to assure oneself supply ahead of schedule; Next, enterprise oneself goes investing a part to produce can insufficient segment. Other side needs to treat rhythm. Produce can superfluous segment, need control progress is a few slower. Industrial disequilibrium is a long-term course, need him company goes holding. Company of “ wind phone needs to increase products plan, to manufacturing management cost is adjusted, reduce management and the cost that produce segment, strengthen purchase link and supplier to cooperate with mechanism. Accomplish hard improve efficiency, reduce cost. Purchase can lock up ahead of schedule decide a few material, equipment, use concentration and cent situation purchase way, foretell ahead of schedule heavy goods is affected to ours. The company that joins after, sponsor price competition, in rapid development and change, the enterprise should have calm power, sober ground look upon cannot follow blindly. Value industry profit, cannot mix blindly actuation. Afore-mentioned fan manufacturer are in charge of ” high to say to the reporter. Energy development and pulsatile be closely bound up, the guiding of policy is crucial. “ should announce program of development key area, be aimed at different area, development business shifts to an earlier date layout, make sure dimensions stabilizes development at the same time. Development business more the complete lifecycle value that wants facility of rational look upon thinks, spend integratedly from the many dimension such as equipment price, operation, service, generating capacity undertake evaluating. ”In future, increase what invest as new energy resources ceaselessly, demand of crucial raw material still can increase further, the price may be in perch inside very long period of time. That is to say, the industry cooperates with, adjust the one big difficult problem that supply and demand can become energy industry to be faced with for a long time evenly. And in Bo Yizhong of this supply and demand, if do not develop an interest to be premise with the industry, who is become impossibly also win the home. Civil Fanshan Shan