From the point of the outfit machine data that goes a few years, wind report serves as a when decrease carbon absolutely brunt, its outfit still is in the current that increases steadily on machine whole. Wind report increased installation amount newly last year is to be as high as 93 kilowatt, grow more than 50% compared to the same period, accumulative total installation amount had achieved 743GW. Home regards main wind report as the market, add those who install machine and machine of accumulative total outfit newly last year to occupy score to be close to 60% with 40% . Be opposite in our report wind report year all increase outfit chance newly calculate had done anticipate on tone. This adjustment basis basically is based on first the strategic goal dispute of carbolic Da Feng changes the sources of energy to occupy than be in 25 years, promote 30 years continuously 20% with 25% , we are opposite considering the near future high cost can the limitation of the industry and the encouragement that use to green report, so hypothesis blame changes the sources of energy to occupy go up than the foundation in strategic goal again rise 10% , achieve after 22% with a such 27.5% levels. Also be based on at the same time generate electricity on average coal consumption year after year drops, scene electricenergy production is occupied promote these premise hypothesis than year after year, measure cipher out eventually 14, 5 during wind report year meeting rise reachs the center that all increases outfit chance newly 57 made of baked clay above, 955 during may achieve 70GW. Above is the seize back confiscated property that we have according to the target, also can undertake two-way test and verify from resource and project end. The station is in current when the word in light of the dot, of domestic wind report can developing project and resources capacity is very enough, e.g. onshore scene large base, wind report, old old fan is transformed, plus maritime wind report, these projects belong to visibility and feasibility to compare tall project and resource, be can strong prop up 945 during, even 955 during of installation amount of domestic wind report. Specific fractionation. It is report of dispersive type wind first, namely plan of 1000 10 thousand villages, it also is not a new name actually. Be in 11 years early when, had advanced relevant idea. From the in light of word on dimensions, end last year, home is onshore and dispersive the accumulative total installed capacity of type wind report also is 1.9GW merely, grow more than 100% compared to the same period, potential development space is bigger. In October the middle ten days of a month when released wind report associate acts specific plan, will be in already clearly among them 14, 5 during, choosing 100 counties, actor to choose 5000 villages to install machine of 10 thousand typhoons, so predict to will be in 10, 945 during contribution adds outfit machine dimensions newly to achieve 50GW. The 2nd respect is old old fan is transformed. Vintage fan transforms a basis of economic benefits different, what also wait for other factor according to wind field, resource is different, can take different pattern, wait for a look to update for example, add a look to perhaps retire newlier directly etc. So undertaking this on one hand when the space is calculated, the rock-bottom logic that we are based on is wind report service life probably 20 years, be opposite next enlist in army 20, 20 years the fan of above is adopted retire directly, the 15 fan that arrive 20 years adopt 1.5 million tile to be transformed entirely below, 1.5 million are made of baked clay the it is certain to transform proportion of this layer class. Eventually we are calculated come down, probably 945 during the replacement demand that can bring 20GW. The 3rd part is scene large base, hopeful is in 945 during bring add outfit machine 100GW newly. According to relevant report we can see, this project that installed capacity arranges 100GW already at the near future orderly start working, predict large base project can become the main force of 945 an outfit aircraft during. Above 3 respects are onshore part actually. Respecting sea is windward electric word, because itself of maritime resource gift has certain specific characteristics, what so we pay close attention to mainly is to have an area with resource advantage coastal a few province. Specific in light of, at present Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong announces already clearly 945 during add maritime wind report newly to install aircraft program aggregate probably two, next plus Guangdong, Guangxi aggregate probably 25GW. Predict 945 during maritime wind report increases those who contribute 45GW above newly outfit chance. Everybody also can see the near future, short-term have factor of a catalysis, it is namely on forum of collaboration of industry of maritime wind cable, jiangsu salt city mentioned report of a 945 maritime wind to plan is to exceed quite those who anticipate, namely 945 during saline city planned probably the coastal waters of 9GW, the dark open sea of 24GW, the program that Jiangsu province saves completely probably namely 9GW. So this is short-term element of a catalysis. Above is us an analysis to resource. Grow from wind cable industry next inside in light of vivid force, it basically is behaved highlight for socioeconomic. First the level, go 10 years a cost per kilowatt hour of the electricity generated by WECS that we can see wind report dropped probably a such 50% extent, so this falls be to be next to smooth Fu Heguang to heat up. Next it dropped the level spending report with 4 bit more cent also is next to water and electricity, the economy that can reflect report giving wind so is constant growth. We anticipate last as the technology ceaseless maturity and the scale that wind cable project develops turn chain of progress, industry, the wind report cost that rent still has certain fall inside full range space. Return to the word in light of home, the beginning of the year up to now fan price of home falls be being measured with invite public bidding is to exceed quite anticipate, main reason depends on the beginning of the year up to now fan is large change and light this quantified process is quickened. According to the statistic of Cwea, the power of stand-alone of average worker worker that domestic wind report increases outfit chance newly mixed 17 years to break through 1.5MW and 2MW respectively in 11 years, so the 16th year average stand-alone power was equivalent to promoting mere 0.5MW. But from this year the case of invite public bidding of wind cable project looks, the stand-alone capacity of onshore aircrew is in basically 3MW above, low wind speed and area of medium, high wind speed also had appeared the type of 5MW, for whole large turning a tide is accelerated apparently. What basically abide by is 3 method, will look first is fan large change, include light quantify, the fall that offerred cost to fan itself space, apparent is action at unit component dosage drop. From this year the case looks, the space that cost drops actually overall the enterprise is too much without keep, the form that basically has depreciated through fan lets benefit give downstream. The 2nd method is fan large change can spread out cost of Bao Fei fan, install cost, carry dimension cost formally for example. 3 o'clock is with large the big lamina that turns photograph form a complete set and tall tower canister, it can bring the promotion that uses hour of number, the corresponding also denominator when increasing cost per kilowatt hour of the electricity generated by WECS to calculate. Specific the word in light of, fall in the circumstance of wind speed of coequal wind speed namely, the electricenergy production of group of wind electric machinery becomes direct ratio with the area that sweep wind. It is with 3MW aircrew exemple, if blade lengthen 5 meters, its area that sweep wind increases 0.8 square metre probably every kilowatt, next annual interest uses hour of number to be able to promote more than 200 hours. The mainstream price of so current fan has fallen in 2200 arrive inside a such 2400 interval. In light of whole, in construction cost drops considerably, below the setting that the yield of project of cable of par times wind falls to promote somewhat instead, the action scalar quantity of report of wind of home of before 3 quarters had been broken through four, add compared to the same period fast more than 110% . In addition, also can keep watch report and Guang Fuheng look to contrast. The fall of fan price is mixed this year of value of package of smooth hot season rise, actually one litre fell to produce disparate effect to the economy respect of two industries. If smooth hot season covers with tiles according to current sheet 4 Qian Zun's right initiative investment becomes original consideration, current project investment gain rate has 6 many to nod only probably, the word for wind report, current unit is initiative investment cost probably 6.5 yuan / W, calculate come down IRR has 8 to nod the left and right sides probably. In light of combinative survey circumstance, current yield basically nods above in 10, after adding lever, the likelihood can achieve 20 dot above. On put together, it is from the level policy supports no matter, resource stands really, still be itself socioeconomic reflects wind cable industry, wind report whole had shown very positive signal this year. Above is we undertake an analysis from what demand carries. The 2nd big field is from supply end looks, supply end is the analysis of catenary of pair of wind cable industry actually, industrial catenary does not consider wind report very long actually, basically include upriver component, middle reaches overall with business of downstream investment operation. Current when dot, we think to be able to be complied with lead fan even large change, maritime wind report is homebred, replace these main industries to develop a tendency, and have advanced producing pattern of layout and deeper industry moat, competition, can high grade segment is to be worth to pay close attention to mainly. Will see package link first, the bibcock enterprise of package link is to be in what promote big sign capability of made of baked clay form a complete set continuously currently. On one hand made of baked clay type of big sign of benefit from benefit from, it is comfortable match more the wind report cast of high accuracy and intensity, the engineering technology of this link promoted camp on certain level. The excessive value with cover with tiles in Yu Dazhao the product exists fair on the other hand, the price difference that will see size million cover with tiles currently is to be in probably 2000 to 3000, this is helpful for maintaining the price advantage of head enterprise and gain level. The 2nd main link is tower canister link. In gain ability respect, because tower canister basically takes the price pattern that is cost addition, the conduction that rises in price to raw material so is smoother, and order odd consign cycle also compare short, look integratedly so, the gain standard of this link is basic be to be able to accuse. What pay close attention to it mainly is advanced produce can layout, main show is the ability of nearby form a complete set. The tower canister of onshore wind report has the 500 carriage radius to 800 kilometers probably, the business that enlarge of the concentration inside area produces can get certain dimensions and cost advantage. Maritime wind report also is the picket of canal of the structure that prop up with many need, haven and dock resource are the core competition ability that is helpful for promoting relevant business. The 3rd link is link of main shaft bearing. Current when in light of the dot, main consumptive market and crude place of production do not match. At present home has become large bearing to consume the market, occupy than exceeding 30% probably. But we look from supply end, at present the bearing market share of 70% above, be come from basically place of these industry of the large bearing that cross a state holds Sweden, Germany, Japan, United States, and what our country basically holds is bearing industry medium in low end the market. The technology of main shaft bearing and craft difficulty are taller, still lie currently homebred replace night before last. At the same time its dimension can increase wind report bearing as the addition of fan capacity, treatment difficulty also can increase subsequently, because this has form a complete set to produce can, and can come true have competitive advantage more to the industry that core client batch supplies. Next a link is wind report main shaft, basically apply at the fan of double admire type and fire hose type, and fan of half straight drive, it is in wind report is overall totle drilling cost is occupied mediumly comparing is 2%-3% probably. With other industry the gain ability contrast of each links looks, the wool interest rate of main shaft link has clearer advantage. The whole technological process that depended on head enterprise basically realizing main shaft to produce on one hand is supplied, on the other hand main shaft has certain technology difficulty, main body forgings in steel ingot now, in anneal process, the consistency that has the exterior hardness that a few subtle craft bring and stress, stability these respects, accordingly industry technology camp still is taller. Head company can get fair excessive price by right of product stability. In light of the feedback of survey circumstance, as the accretion of type of form a complete set, big sign covers with tiles the main shaft price of aircrew also has certain excessive price, because the competitive advantage of this bibcock enterprise is more apparent. It is overall after link. Of the market share of head enterprise or opposite concentration. But from last year even the year before last year, because get the influence of plant place of business, include the effect of a few consign, the market share of partial head enterprise is to have what spill over certainly. Because of the high grade enterprise of this a few second line, e.g. east electric, they also were to take more form, market share also has certain promotion. Below prospective industry trend, we think overall manufacturer more be comprehensive strength think. First from technical level for, can be complied with or lead large those who turn a tide also hold advantage position more easily, go up in the sea e.g. Ming Yang wind report domain, amount to domain of onshore wind report e.g. carry. Next overall link follows package of smooth hot season this link is a bit similar, have stronger supply chain government ability, include cost to control the company of ability, be helpful for mastering larger speech advantageous position and better profit ability. Invest a respect, suggest attention follow closely is large first change, homebred replace maritime wind phone these main trends, quicken at the same time advanced produce can layout, hopeful implementation city occupies the component bibcock that leads promotion. It is to suggest to pay close attention to cost to drop next, the second line that stimulates next winning the bid that promote with shipment is overall business. of interlocution link 1, continue to fall next this if, leader plant can upstream wants profit, is component enterprise about to be far from? Large change affirmation to fall this is no problem, but large changing is upgrade of a platform walks along a platform actually, e.g. three tile, four tile, five tile, six tile, onshore now some accomplishs six tile probably, begin upgrade maritimely to do from 8MW, some enterprises also can accomplish 16MW probably now, this is a trend that everybody takes forth. That this large in the course that change, it is this leader plant not just, leader plant should take all this facility plants, assembly plant, material factory to be done together, e.g. the length of blade, radius that sweep wind, consider to sweep wind radius already, consider whole security even, the structure that still has it, intensity wants a consideration etc. So this is to fall this a trend. The 2nd our meeting discovers the extent of certain time Duan Li this year, fan price falls passed a bit, for example low when once had signed up for of 1008, the more than 4000 affirmation in the past are unreasonable, now 1008 affirmation also are unreasonable. So we see the near future it begins price of invite public bidding a bit is go to time, before low when 2001, 2002, likely now 2003, 2004, myself feels this thing is not certain also correct, everybody carries 20% inclination wool interest rate, the likelihood is the circumstance with attribute a trade normaller. Because now is business of operation of industrial catenary endmost the yield there is particularly high, after adding lever probably, 25 to the level since 30 exceed the history, it is normal to also can be returned to after. So I feel this price upgrade goes up to also be belonged to normal, so I feel not quite the condition that existence upgrade goes to pressing. Is upriver pressure greater where be? Still basically depend on charge of electricity, the price that still has coke is higher, this may have certain influence and pressure to a few enterprises. 2, the fan that Ming Yangzhi can accomplish ten tile this ability, should OK say dispute often precedes. The dominant position with can think it may have prospective overseas market better then. Does our leader plant go to sea what difficulty to have? Leader plant goes to sea have little difficulty actually, we have one's early years a few enterprises also had done and so on of two seas strategy actually, these things everybody is to had tried hard actually, went doing, but go up from executive effect for, it is so good that not likely has. Our past fan is large changing plan is slower actually, and overseas person of the same trade is large change the early that do, maritime wind report can be accomplished before family early 8 even 10 taller perhaps, home is slower, bring about us to do not have an advantage inside very long period of time so. The 2nd a lot of abroader the resource of overseas of itself of wind phone company concerns, the channel of the bank concerns, each respects compare domestic company be close friends a lot of, in former years we a few companies go abroad extend, step forward with respect to discovery dimension difficult, because of what? Measure namely at the beginning smaller, the group that goes unlikelily building a this locality to change solves a problem. If do not establish the group that a this locality turns, arrive very hard again the sort of business culture inside go taking order form, compare paradox so all the time. Overseas of report of the 3rd maritime wind has a lot of projects, often be to follow artesian well platform relevant, it may be circumjacent resemble Mexican bay for instance, still have Baltic those area, they have the project of report of a lot of maritime wind. This you are about to concern with Petroleum Company pretty good, perhaps say to cooperate with the family before more, enterprise this respect is inferior position. A few years so the overseas strategy of a lot of companies was carried out in the past slower. In light of now, it is about the same that product field company follows abroad industry, had had definite advantage, other is to see business affairs. See cost respect still should have a few opportunities. 3, does operation business income have so tall? If operation business matchs store can, should not have so high yield? Saying without the requirement now is complete should match compulsively store can. Market space is so large, everybody is an area transforms a division for certain, the discovery that transfers after when every place does not have disappear accept ability, be about to be forced to go up store can, short-term I feel to need not consider this issue. 4, old old fan is transformed, I had asked a lot of experts on the technology, some experts say old old fan transforms need to keep watch Daliangen uproots, establish tower of a wind afresh next, it is good to some saying that do not need to need to change a lead plane only. What kind of technology method is this after all? Depend, it is a 500 thousand tile so for instance or of 750, you want to change three tile now, do not change wind tower lamina how of apply the brake rise? The radius that sweep wind is affirmatory, this particular case is so particular look. It is so for instance of 1.5, the comparison that does tower vertical stroke next is tall, changed 3 now, guide a radius is enough also, then he also is done not have necessary. 5, square allowance policy can introduce each district of next year of maritime wind report sea wind depends on namely local government, see your area square government be willing to give how many money namely. Will see what make clear quite or only Guangdong saves a such programs currently. 6, Guangzhou is only clear that now, but the place planned again project of cable of a lot of maritime wind, this allowance did not catch up with, program can Where is be born? Maritime wind report is very simple, why everybody should plan? E.g. saline city, Zhangzhou, everybody feels these local government are mad, the project with so big program, can have this kind of idea. Spoken parts in an opera is at that time the Yang Jiang of Guangdong opened build to everybody. The dimension that we ponder over is spent is electrovalency, we are considering this issue only, can local government ponder over electrovalency only this problem? Not be for certain, why he should build that large base, why to include saline city to want form a complete set the yield of how many can reach that place? Maritime wind report has to want from that project ground close, must build a plant in the seaside, right? He can encourage you, your then new industry garden can be driven, raise profit tax, that this to local government it is brushstroke accrual. As to the money that says allowance goes out, be with local dweller how to use what electric door allowance goes out to still fill? I feel this thing is not important, but it created obtain employment to place, solved the problem such as contribution of taxation, advantageous still profit. This belongs to an economic benefits of whole, we calculated an effect that generates electricity only only actually, it is completely different that governmental level considers a problem to consider an issue with us. 7, to next year onshore have with installation amount of maritime wind report probably anticipate? Tell the market to anticipate only, I feel this thing needs to look etc, the anticipation of the market that is to say the quantity of the wind report of whole of our next year should be 57 made of baked clay above arrive on the meeting, some likelihoods anticipate 55, such. The anticipation this year I believe everybody has fallen, likelihood 30 go to three, this is integral circumstance. Pure see sea wind, feel the installation amount this year is bigger actually so, original great master feels at least with respect to 8GW. Having a few things can dog, converter, sea is versed in, a few Etc, canister of maritime a few towers, transformer, can serve as evidence. Look at present, won't have possibly this year so much, likelihood 5 around or 5 to this kinds of 6 levels. Next year report of may maritime wind is in again probably 8 above are more perhaps. 8, onshore wind report is next year overall factory, component factory, is their gain circumstance in probably what level? Compared to the same period in light of the circumstance this year, be no good for certain first half of the year, second half of the year does not know. Because have bill of a few low,be no good first half of the year is. 9, order of next year consign, can there be difference with the price of second half of the year first half of the year? Period of time was handed in 891, 2002, of 1008 also have. That bill is paid first for certain, close talent begins upgrade to answer, this is. The price of coke is very high still the 2nd now, some resemble making cast, he wants those who use coke to want to use cupola, coke price has not continued, although the price of futures continues, spot price did not go down. Raw material cost is on the high side, if still maintain this level next year, also did not become poor at least on limit actually. 10, invite public bidding of electric power of Hua Run of October portion Zhejiang, its sea wind price accomplishs 4000 money to control, before be being compared 7000 money substantially dropped. Somebody has calculated this price to may have arrived par, convert comes down probably 3 Mao Wu's charge of electricity, but also a lot of views want namely 24, 25 years of par, how does this par process see it may not be a bad idea of smooth hot season, wind report it may not be a bad idea, I feel is to belong to arrive from the dot line, hind a process to the face, it may have some of wind resource condition to compare nice area, the likelihood calculates come down to be par. If change a section, leave land to have one kilometer only e.g. this project, next another project has 10 kilometers from land, knowing next is rock base or silt base, the difficulty of construction is different. This circumstance that so I feel current, can say certain and specific project only it may be to be able to achieve parity, but you cannot say all project can par, this thing is bad to say. A few case before, 2018 when, wulanchabu already par, do not give allowance namely, but can you say Wulanchabu is all project par? Without, only bureau of the sources of energy sets an example that at that time the 6GW project of base is par. 11, when can the estimation of price of maritime wind n of large area arrive to you can come true? Everybody says 24, should be 25 years to have certain basis, this thing still depends on actually we are large change, and after scope effect comes up, fall cost. Maritime wind report follows onshore wind report different, the thing that it involves is more, some a few places that the form of this base is in namely form industrial base, next one batch is built, passivity of its a lot of cost can spread out went down. In built procedure, a lot of projects already par, if be here builds, over there build, I feel no matter how long does par hold out the likelihood difficult, the kind that so the likelihood still wants to be planted with this is base of marine wind phone goes developing, the circumstance will be betterer. 12, Zhangzhou, saline city, very small ground level town, add up with respect to what have 83GW this kind plans probably, how to look? Can come true, stay completely still in catchword above? First its quantity compares city of level of these two ground actually the program of the province is big still, sounding really is a bit fearsome, can you be in 5 years in finish? Do not know. After the level deep-sea development, that leaves a seaside namely a little a bit further place, the space is some for certain, but you say this how long develops this from east to west, that does not know. Stay in the program now, a bit time needs if wanting to come true. Change a word to say, say future is likely 10 years, 20 years maritime wind report should be the industry with a growing first-rate sex, can 10 years this industry grow decuple? That does not know this to walk along an edge to look with respect to the edge. 13, does wind phone equipment depreciate after all which fall more? Because influencing factor is more this year, so I do not know how this thing should understand after all. Put in normal time to may compare good understanding namely, because you resemble rolled steel this year, still the price that includes coke goes up very more actually, it is not quite good that wave motion compares severe case to fall calculate. After ending this year, we can take the case of annual go doing calculate, may have a clearer conclusion, but the wool interest rate that because of 3 quarterly reports a lot of companies assign a product without exposure now and level of net interest rate, do harder calculate. 14, the price impact to the gain ability of tower tube business? Traditional business has besides the likelihood must have a few areas advantage, approach base for example or project, what camp to have in production, production link? The price pattern of tower canister is cost addition, it basically is can in those who control board rise in price undertake conductive. Understand according to us like that, tower canister probably 3 quarters when the price is in 7934 all valence, four quarters may be to 9000, this does not contain tax, corresponding rolled steel 3 quarters all valence 6003 the left and right sides, q4 also is a such levels probably. So on the whole, if next year this steel price won't fall a lot of, the horizontal stroke is in the word of 6000 perch, won't produce particularly big effect to ability of tower canister gain so. This link actually an important hotspot, advanced still produce can the problem of layout. Why to emphasize this? Still basically be tower canister bigger, carry suffer quite be restricted, resemble a few companies, it may be in 3 north area, it is the area that those resource cover centrally quite, can rolling out the yield of itself have definite advantage. Maritime have carriage radius not quite actually this problem, but because it is heavier, bigger, be in so dock perhaps builds base near haven, perhaps say him itself has port city or haven dispute often has competitive advantage. Can reflect in what there is advantage of very strong competition above absolutely technology not quite. 15, the technical course of lead plane? Basically be 3 technologies course currently, maritime wind report may more meeting adopts everybody to indicate route partly, depend on it likelihood weight is lighter, the design on that rope among it is more compact, so it goes up in the sea the carriage cost respect of wind report, the field of carry dimension cost that includes later period may have definite advantage. 16, why is the space that this segment profit compresses tower canister less? Large change a trend to fall, fall this among them a method is it the dosage of meeting booth thin component, this is reflected apparent is in package link. We understand a circumstance to look, current this dosage is likely from 25 had fallen 20. Second code form a complete set measures sheet of tower canister link now is 9 tons, 10 tons are before, the type of six tile may fall 8 tons. On one hand this falls not be particularly big actually, do on the other hand large this model that turn, those who need form a complete set is taller, bigger tower canister, the dosage that says odd root so can not decrease, say it is in dosage of component of the large Bao Ling that change vendor's stand this setting falls so, a link with little damage.
Expert viewpoint: Market of 2021 wind cable studies
