One, EVA colophony: Duramen of nucleus of upper reaches of smooth hot season expects, industrial catenary imports depend on sb or sth for existence to spend taller link
EVA colophony is ethylene and acetic acid ethylene (VA) copolymer, because have good plasticity, optical function, chemical stability, fight ageing and be able to bear or endure avirulent and ozone intensity, harmless wait for a characteristic, be applied extensively at makings of Fu of glue of cable of film of glue of epispastic shoe material, smooth hot season, wire, hot frit, besmear to reach farming film domain. According to VA content different, EVA colophony is used at what differ downstream. VA content is higher, sex of the resilience of the film that its make, flexibility, bind, transparency, dissolvability, be able to bear or endure stress craze sex and concussion performance are better, and VA content is lower, the tigidity of the film that its make, wearability and insulating property are better.
(1) film of glue of smooth hot season: With Yu Guangfu package is enclosed, cross-linking can happen in enclosing a process, form a structure the gel with even, sealed and tall, good light transmittance, crystal silicon batteries piece stick with backboard of toughened glass face plate, TPT respectively receive rise, prevent water, gas, dirt effectively to wait for pair of crystal silicon batteries thereby piece corrode, prolong battery life.
(2) wire cable: Stem from safe consideration, a lot of taboo PVC regard electrical wiring as cable, a large number of smother arise in order to prevent when fire happening, without bittern cable of wire of insulation of polyolefin of low smoke cross-linking is carried out in great quantities, EVA gets be popularizinged energetically as safe cable makings.
(3) hot frit glue: Glue of EVA hot frit basically is used at the agglutinate of the article such as cap of dress, furniture, shoe, because of harmless and avirulent, environmental protection, agglutinant the phenyl that waits for a characteristic by force to replace a tradition gradually is sizy.
(4) besmear Fu makings: EVA can be used at unsealing the film, film that protect card, easily beforehand as besmear Fu makings film, in pushing the product such as filmy join layer in all, improve filmy performance.
(5) epispastic makings: Multi-purpose in the sole of shoe of travel of Yu Zhonggao archives, climbing boot, slipper, sandal and interior trim material, also use at sound insulation board, gymnastic mat and sealed material domain.
Industry of smooth hot season is EVA resinous big downstream. Domestic EVA colophony includes the industry such as material of film of glue of wire cable, smooth hot season, epispastic shoe, farming film downstream, 2016-2021 year consumption of apparent of domestic EVA colophony reachs 2.04 million tons from 1.3 million tons of promotion, year all add fast in 9.4% . From the point of consumptive structure, EVA colophony was consumed downstream 2020 in, 32% come from Yu Guangfu glue film, 31% come from epispastic shoe material, 17% come from wire cable.
2, development of estate of smooth hot season is carried fast, EVA demand high speed grows
(one) tall look forward to of price of fossil the sources of energy, development of estate of smooth hot season is carried fast, promote EVA demand
Below the setting that counteracts in carbon, but second birth the sources of energy generates electricity to replacing traditional fossil the sources of energy quickly. According to BNEF data, begin smooth Fu Xinzeng to install machine dimensions to exceed fossil the sources of energy from 2017 (coal fired + oil gas) , the dimensions of general assembly machine of water and electricity and nuclear report. Although raw material rises in price,reached epidemic situation influence 2021, outfit machine still maintains smooth hot season to be added high fast. Guang Fuxin added outfit machine to be 170GW 2021, grow 34% compared to the same period, domestic smooth dog days adds outfit machine 55GW newly, grow 14% compared to the same period.
Each country comes on stage in succession 2030 but second birth the sources of energy generates electricity target, 10 time bend over holds future machine determinism fast growth. China is big smooth Fu Xinzeng holds machine country, machine of the outfit after policy of double in September 2020 carbon comes on stage is quickened. In June 2022, hair change appoint, the 9 branches such as bureau of the sources of energy combine print and distribute " “ 945 ” but second birth the sources of energy develops a program " , arrive clearly 2025, but second birth the sources of energy year electricenergy production reachs 3.3 trillion kilowatt hour. 945 ” of “ period, but increment of electricenergy production of second birth energy uses n increment to be occupied mediumly in whole society than exceeding 50% , wind report and solar energy (8.36, 0.01, implementation of 0.12%) electricenergy production turns over times.
In addition, except, area of machine of outfit of smooth hot season of abroad and other main aspect also puts forward in succession 2030 but second birth the sources of energy generates electricity target, fast growth of industry of convoy smooth hot season:
(1) in July 2021, the European Union passes the sources of energy of “Fit For 55” and climate package draft resolution, point out among them 2030 but second birth the sources of energy generates electricity occupy than amounting to 40% . In March 2022, the European Union releases route chart of independence of the sources of energy " REPowerEU " , will announce detail further on May 18: Will 2030 but second birth the sources of energy generates electricity occupy rise than the target to 45% , at the same time the European Union will be in 2022-2027 inside year increase investment newly 210 billion euro (among them 86 billion euro is used at construction but second birth the sources of energy, 27 billion euro is used at hydrogenous energy equipment) , become independent in order to achieve the sources of energy. In addition, the European Union puts industry of smooth hot season in the significant position in route chart of independence of the sources of energy, the plan arrives 2025, realized machine of outfit of accumulative total of smooth hot season of 320GW, 600GW respectively 2030.
(2) in October 2021, japan is released " the sources of energy plans basically " the 6th edition, put forward 2030 but second birth the sources of energy generates electricity the target that scale amounts to 36%-38% .
(3) in November 2021, american Boule passed Bai Dengzheng government office the exciting act of 1.75 trillion dollar (Build Back Better Act) , mention among them will continue to extend ITC policy 10 years. In December 2021, american smooth hot season guild generates electricity smooth 2030 hot season occupy come from 20% promotion than the target 30% .
Industrial catenary technology quickens evolution, but second birth the sources of energy generates electricity cost year after year drops. The breakthrough of technology of smooth hot season makes online electrovalency drops continuously. Smooth 2020 hot season generates electricity LCOE already under electrovalency of domestic coal fired. In the future looks, TOPCon technology, HJT technology, smooth hot season matchs the new technology such as Chu Nengmo type and new pattern to will be reduced further but second birth the sources of energy generates electricity cost.
Price of traditional the sources of energy goes up continuously, but price of sex of second birth the sources of energy is compared highlight. Be in but while electrovalency of second birth the sources of energy drops gradually, electrovalency of the sources of energy is in the tradition to promote continuously. Ground of epidemic situation overlay causes price of traditional the sources of energy along conflict from 2021 second half of the year goes up significantly. The abroad area that is main fossil fuel with natural gas among them grows considerably with electric cost, cause a share company of abroad chemical industry lowers negative production. Give priority to those who want fossil fuel to also be faced with same cost pressure and carbon to discharge the pressure of index with coal. Here setting falls, but price of sex of second birth the sources of energy is compared highlight, enterprise of most chemical industry begins form a complete set but power plant of second birth the sources of energy.
Home owns chain of Guang Fucheng ripe industry, will enjoy adequately but reproduction enterprise flourishs. Began 2013, centre of gravity of catenary of industry of smooth hot season is transferred from Europe gradually, make an appointment with the batteries of 85% at present piece crop comes from at, scale of exit of component of domestic smooth dog days is in 50% above. The prosperity of industry of smooth hot season will drive fast growth of demand of material of domestic smooth dog days.
EVA glue film is the significant protection protective screen of component of smooth hot season. Component of smooth hot season by backboard, enclose glue film, cell piece, glue of glass of smooth hot season, sealing side and aluminous frame composition. Enclose glue film to cover cell among them piece fluctuation two sides, with backboard of superstratum glass, lower level (or glass) pass an organic whole of agglutinate of vacuum lamination technology, its action is to protect component of smooth hot season not to suffer external environment effect in moving process, the service life that promotes package and generate electricity efficiency.
Diversification of course of technology of film of glue of smooth hot season, but the synthetic material that EVA colophony remains the main aspect. At present film of commonly used glue of smooth hot season can be divided mix for film of glue of film of glue of EVA of film of transparent EVA glue, white, POE EPE glue film, from the point of colophony end main component is EVA colophony and POE colophony. Compare with EVA colophony photograph, POE colophony has lower vitrification transition temperature, still keep stretch below microtherm environment; Have lower lunt transmitance, because this shows water,lead lower. But speed of POE resinous cross-linking compares EVA colophony cost of slower, synthesis is higher.
Have from the market in light of rate, at present EVA glue film is occupied than big, 2020 film of white EVA glue + film of transparent EVA glue is occupied be in than making an appointment with 73% . As the complex degree promotion of environment of component of smooth hot season, the application of double Bo component is wider and wider, film of transparent EVA glue is occupied than will gliding somewhat, predict 2025, of film of transparent EVA, white EVA, POE, EPE occupy score to be 48% , 25% , 10% , 17% , EVA colophony remains great glue film to synthesize material.
Chanpingke promotes glue film colophony demand again. As batteries piece large size is changed those who reach silicon chip is thin model change, the ply of glue film has increase a current gradually, the reason can enhance pair of batteries in glue film of Yu Genghou piece protection. According to new material of actor of of great capacity of plant of mainstream glue film (186, - 12.7, - the book of raise capital by floating shares of 6.39%) , the gram of film of glue of company 2017-2020H1 transparent EVA is respectively again 0.42, 0.45, 0.48, 0.5kg/m2, show ascendant trend continuously.
Below the hypothesis that adds outfit machine newly to be 250/320/400/480GW respectively in 2022-2025 time bend over, demand of EVA glue film is in respectively 28.4/36.03/44.63/53.55 100 million smooth. If the sheet of the industry makes the same score Ke Chongjun to be worth,by 480g promotion comes 500g, and film of domestic EVA glue is produced can occupy the circumstance of 90% to fall, bend over of predicting 2022-2025 time is 104.99/132.63/169.13/202.96 respectively to EVA resinous demand 10 thousand tons.
(2) epispastic add with wire cable makings fast smooth, hold bottom EVA demand in the palm
EVA colophony is OK fill is many filling and not fragile crack, because this is,without cable of wire of insulation of polyolefin of cross-linking of bittern low smoke material of half electric screen uses resinous mainstream to choose. The insulation jacket of wire cable is multi-purpose polyvinyl chloride material, but should produce fire circumstance to fall, polyvinyl chloride material can produce many smother, chlorine, cause personal casualty. The key city such as our country Beijing, Shanghai already made clear a regulation, cable of wire of pvc of main building taboo, replacing plan is not to have cable of wire of insulation of polyolefin of cross-linking of bittern low smoke. But without bittern flame retardant the need in wire cable jacket adds a large number of fire retardant, to the treatment of colophony material function has very high demand. Because EVA colophony dissolves structural polymer to raise, and contain copolymerization of many polarity VA monomer to be in advocate on catenary, accordingly but fill is many filling and not fragile crack, and the integrated and mechanical property that keeps better, use because of what this EVA colophony expects in cable more. In addition, material of half electric screen needs to add a large number of carbon black, EVA colophony also is the choice of the mainstream. Basis 100 plain be filled with inspire confidence in sb, 2018-2021 year domestic line cable uses EVA colophony consumption to be 326 thousand tons by 250 thousand tons of growth, year all add fast for 9.3% . Predict to did not come 5 years with of 10% increase fast growth.
EVA epispastic makings is material of a kind of new-style environmental protection, possess avirulent, sound-absorbing, adiabatic, resilience good, weight is light, can adjust the dominant position such as soft hardness and ply at will, apply to the market such as material of vanity box bag, car, aerospace, shoe, toy, building. Basis 100 plain be filled with inspire confidence in sb, 2018-2021 year home is epispastic it is 612 thousand tons by 54.7 tons of growth with EVA colophony consumption, year all compound add fast for 3.8% . In the future looks, as EVA epispastic makings rolls out new product continuously in the domain such as shoe material, we predict future of EVA epispastic makings 5 years with of 5% increase fast growth.
(3) predict total demand of domestic EVA colophony was in three million seven hundred and forty-eight thousand three hundred tons 2025
Predict total demand of domestic EVA colophony was in three million seven hundred and forty-eight thousand three hundred tons 2025. Makings of hypothesis wire cable, epispastic makings, Tu Fu + hot frit glue + demand of farming film stuff parts 5 years in future with 10% , 5% , of 8% year all increase fast growth, criterion 2022-2025 year total demand of domestic EVA colophony is 244.59/282.20/329.43/374.83 respectively 10 thousand tons.
3, EVA colophony enlarge produces cycle long, supply end rhythm of to the limit of one's capacity is slow
EVA colophony enlarge produces cycle to grow, although company of domestic much home announces enlarge is produced, but rhythm of supply to the limit of one's capacity is slow. The cycle that the EVA colophony manufacturer that country moves at present builds real go into operation from start working all is in 3 years of above, build cycle to be in among them 2-2.5 or so years, produce a line to debug in above of half an year. Domestic couplet new division (32.39, - 0.84, - model of stage of 2.53%) , peaceful wave the line all is in 2012 start working, and couplet new division is in 2015 put into production, model of peaceful wave stage is in 2016 put into production. Sierbangshi changes a line to be in 2014 start working, 2017 put into production. Push from this know 2021-2022 year the yield of put into production all can be 2016-2018 year the yield of start working can, because this is new increase production can be relatively certain. According to our statistic domestic design was produced 2021 can be in 1.472 million tons, produce actually can be in 1.122 million tons, 2022/2023 year the design is produced can be 222.2/242.2 respectively 10 thousand tons, produce actually can be 189.7/254.7 respectively 10 thousand tons.
EVA has craft to cannot realize 100% smooth hot season to expect 100% produce completely, the supply increment that smooth hot season expects is finite. EVA colophony enterprise normally won't can produce the yield of 100% smooth hot season to expect with a future life, the reason depends on: 1) in consuming a structure downstream, demand of trade of smooth hot season is occupied than be in 30% the left and right sides, wire cable, epispastic wait for consumption to occupy than 70% , existing EVA manufacturer for balanced and downstream client, normally won't will produce entirely can produce smooth hot season to expect with a future life, couplet makings of new division smooth hot season is produced can be in about 30% , the plan after ability changed 2022 produces smooth hot season can occupy come than promotion 50%-60% , sierbangshi changes makings of smooth hot season to produce can occupy than be in 70% the left and right sides; 2) although produce material of smooth hot season entirely, also cannot come true 100% produce completely, what the reason expects in Yu Guangfu is agglutinant strong, if 100% production smooth hot season expects, need fixed rinsing equipment, have 3-4 day with every 80 days calculate except dirty, produce can start working limit is in about 95% .
Law tubal form has cost advantage more. Domestic EVA device uses technology of high-pressured noumenon polymerization normally, noumenon law parts law of the type that it is boiler and tubal type way again. Boiler type law and the pull current Cheng of law tubal form are roughly identical, but because differ and be produced of reactor in single track can, change difference of existence of respect of cost of rate, production. From the point of integrated cost, single track of law tubal form is produced can bigger, change rate is higher, because this produces cost lower than boiler type law; But the VA content upper limit of the EVA that law tubal form produces is in 28%-30% , and the EVA that boiler type law can produce taller VA content.
From the point of manufacturing cost contrast, cost of law tubal form is lower than cost of boiler type law about 2000 yuan / ton. We with Xinjiang overhead profit new and high project of 200 thousand tons of EVA and in division refine is changed 2 period project of 100 thousand tons of EVA undertakes contrast, undertake calculating with the raw material price April 1, 2022, discover boiler type law is on raw material, the sources of energy and depreciation cost all law of type of prep above canal.
Law tubal form produces predominate spread the line. EVA colophony was produced 2019 can 5.206 million tons, among them boiler type law is produced can 2.785 million tons, occupy than 53.5% , law tubal form is produced can 2.421 million tons, occupy than 46.5% . And in the future looks, price of the sources of energy has promote an advantage continuously, the cost advantage of law tubal form is more clear, law tubal form predominate course.
In addition, EVA colophony is imported every year replace a space to be controlled in 1 million tons. Because colophony of EVA of the home before this is produced can lesser and high-end material is less, entrance depend on sb or sth for existence spends EVA colophony to be in all the time 50% above. But basically center in as a result of EVA glue film, produce as domestic EVA colophony accordingly can to the limit of one's capacity, the low cost of overlay home company and protect for the advantage, what domestic company replaces first is the import volume that smooth hot season expects. In addition progress as the technology of domestic company, the high-end makings such as wire cable also is continueing stage by stage homebred replace, the entrance amount that correspondence has 1 million tons about will be produced by home can replace. Predicting future 2-3 year the entrance depend on sb or sth for existence of EVA colophony material is spent will have drop considerably.
4, look with year level, predicting EVA supplies tight situation hopeful to last to 2024
The market worries at present 2021 second half of the year - junior high school can change fontal city, Yu 2022, EVA price be issued to lower levels is brought about after the new increase production such as petrifaction of short for Zhejiang Province can put in. But we are farther answer dish since 2021 EVA price, discover 4 to produce newly can put in what did not cause EVA price considerably be issued to lower levels: The price be issued to lower levels of 2021Q4 is main the reason is be issued to lower levels of price of raw material calcium carbide and platoon of smooth hot season produce drop with annulus comparing, fontal city, Yu is changed to be able to change new increase production to be able to put brought supply on increment influence in partial overlay at the same time. But when 2022Q1 light volt platoon is produced pick up, advantageous fontal city, Yu can be changed in was being digested, petrifaction of short for Zhejiang Province adds up to 3 times 700 thousand tons of new increase production can, EVA price appears go up trend. And in the future looks, 300 thousand tons when second half of the year supplied upright increment to at present only ancient Lei Lian is changed 2022 and couplet 30 thousand tons of increment that ability revises a project expects new division, demand is carried second half of the year is normally good first half of the year, because this supply demand relations is good,drive price of EVA colophony second half of the year to continue at hopeful strong.
Calculate according to above, predicting 2022-2025 year domestic EVA is produced can be 189.7/254.7/312.2/447.2 respectively 10 thousand tons, effective demand is in 244.59/282.20/329.43/374.83 10 thousand tons, breach of supply and demand (produce can - effective demand) for - 54.89/-27.50/-17.23/72.37 10 thousand tons, predict to produce can nervous hopeful to last to 2024.
5, improvement of supply and demand of acetic acid ethylene, form to EVA price prop up effectively
EVA colophony price and height of price of ethylene of raw material acetic acid are relevant, but all previous price adjusts range all ethylene of prep above acetic acid. Answer dish the EVA colophony since 2017 and price of acetic acid ethylene, both height is relevant, the reason depends on at present EVA enterprise mostly ethylene of form a complete set is produced can and produce without acetic acid ethylene can, because of price of ethylene of this acetic acid go up drop to be able to be conducted relatively to EVA price.
Pattern of supply and demand of acetic acid ethylene is benign improvement, follow-up price gets main area improvement is strong prop up. Industry of ethylene of domestic acetic acid is produced after 2011-2016 produces per year can fast dilate can superfluous, after this industry does not have new increase production again can. In addition, the acetic acid ethylene of 58% produces current country can use calcium carbide method, calcium carbide price rose considerably 2021 bring about calcium carbide law to produce line cost bear control influence go into operation. And demand side has EVA colophony to make an appointment with 50-70 every year to acetic acid ethylene again 10 thousand tons demand increment is pulled move, pattern of supply and demand of ethylene of predicting follow-up acetic acid lasts benign improvement, the price has go up continuously trend.
6, key company analysis
1, couplet new division
Company advocate battalion EVA colophony, have 150 thousand tons to produce at present can. The company is home colophony of earlier implementation EVA is homebred one of companies that turn, built law of type of 121 thousand tons of boiler to produce 2015 can, have 3-4 about at present makings of 10 thousand tons of smooth hot season is produced can, ability changes after finishing, volt makings occupies company light to come than will promoting 50%-70% . The company is in at the same time build plant of 200 thousand tons of EVA. Polyethylene of quantity of element of EC+DMC of ester of carbonic acid of data of report of lithium of position of this grandfather department, freeboard, but degradation is plastic PLA tall grow, tall camp circuit.
2, Oriental Cheng Hong (17.09, 0.18, 1.06% )
The company is chemical fibber bibcock, have 2.6 million tons of chemical fibber to produce at present can. Began to build 10 thousand tons of refine of 1600 to turn unifinication project 2019, this project 2022 first half of the year put into production, “ refine will be formed to change after put into production - PTA- polyester ” is complete industrial catenary. Petrifaction of wholy-owned subsidiary Si Erbang has 300 thousand tons of EVA to produce can (type of 100 thousand tons of boiler + type of 200 thousand tons of canals) , among them makings of smooth hot season is produced can 200 thousand tons. Downstream client includes Forster (65.15, - 0.37, - the factory of film of mainstream EVA glue such as new material of actor of 0.56%) , sea. Company other program 750 thousand tons of EVA are produced can.
3, Rong Chengshi is changed (15.22, - 0.17, - 1.10% )
The company is petrifaction and chemical fibber bibcock, with traditional spin build up, progressively up layout polyester - PTA-PX industry catenary. The company bought petrifaction of short for Zhejiang Province 2017 51% equity. Petrifaction of short for Zhejiang Province held water 2015 hind begin 40 million tons to plan / year refine turns unifinication project, among them 2 period plan colophony of 300 thousand tons of EVA, should produce a line to had cast material success on December 28, 2021, yield smoothly makings of smooth hot season. In addition, the company brings authorization of technology of polyethylene of heart Basel high pressure at acquiring interest again in April 2022, will reconstructive type of boiler of 100 thousand tons of high pressure and EVA of type of 300 thousand tons of canals produce a line.
