After Spring Festival holiday returns, experience of market of double phenolic A passes to help fall after a rise of the concussion after going up momently, demand side still is to restrict market of double phenolic A to walk along one of main reasons of situation, market price case fluctuates around cost line all the time, have bigger improvement hard, but cost is propped up make double phenolic A drops range is narrow, end on Feburary 10, 2023, mainstream of area of Hua Dong of double phenolic A negotiates price 10000 yuan / ton.
In Feburary the first ten days of a month, the impact that double phenolic A is fluctuated by cost face is bigger. But will look at present, performance of centre of gravity of acetone of raw material phenol is strong. Because arrive harbor goods is finite, and cost face and all the profit with higher price is good prop up below, the Shang Ting that manage money goes up intent is grumous, but terminal sex of Mai Xingyan add still remains to pay close attention to, acetone of phenol of predicting raw material is brief pull after going up, still put the risk of be issued to lower levels of narrow cut concussion, come from cost face because of this double phenolic A prop up or briefer.
Respect of supply and demand, at present the rate of trade go into operation of double phenolic A rises to 85% the left and right sides, be in higher level, although business of form a complete set of double phenolic A-PC is much for private use, for sale abroad or in another part of the country is little, but supply of spot market of double phenolic A still relatively enough.
Downstream epoxy resin and PC installation negative charge also were in recently promotion:
At present the whole of unit go into operation of epoxy resin is in 50% the left and right sides, but short because of terminal demand, below the premise with greater pressure of inventory of colophony company finished product, the range that follow-up unit go into operation promotes is narrow;
The installation negative charge with current PC already was amounted to 75% the left and right sides, good to come nearly 3 years level, the wastage to double phenolic A also step up, and with epoxy resin use up difference to be pulled stage by stage big, but have form a complete set of double phenolic A more because of unit of domestic PC company, of because this is right double phenolic A outside collect an amount finite, and follow-up of PC terminal demand also is not worth, the market also is in concussion to slant to be adjusted infirmly in, its are restrained to be opposite on certain level of double phenolic A purchase.
Epoxy resin and PC all maintain agreement to use up to double phenolic A or just needed buy follow-up to give priority to, accordingly, short line demand faces market of double phenolic A to be formed hard prop up.
In the process that weichis in rich of cost, supply and demand, the market of double phenolic A goes situation is more passive. Downstream terminal demand anticipates not as good as, short line comes from demand side prop up still be not worth, but acetone of raw material phenol goes up drop repeatedly, the effect that double phenolic A suffers cost face is bigger, profit of raw material mart is at present good prop up below, market focus to good, course of study of double phenolic A person already was produced by the state of mind propping up of cost face change, predict medium in Feburary, the last ten-day of a month, the probability that double phenolic A runs around wave motion of narrow cut of cost line fluctuation is bigger, but still need to pay close attention to raw material market to take situation and case of downstream demand follow-up.
Determined not increase production! American shale oil lifts “ and buy wet ”
Reported on Feburary 12 local time according to American media, banker and lawyer report say, business of production of nearly a few weeks of shale oil is lifting to contend for what high grade shale oil drills the ground to buy tide.
Nevertheless, contend for the target that grab to be not new oil field, keep quantity oil field however, be located in Texas and new Mexico especially the Permian basin of the city (Permian Basin) , the Permian is to go up the oil field with high yield.
Business of bank of outstanding Furui the sources of energy is in charge of Pete Bowden to predict: Will appear to be bought in great quantities 2023 trade.
The basis seeks advice from the data of company Enverus, oil industry clinched a deal only 2022 160 are bought trade, for since 2005 low-level. Meanwhile, bought last year trade total value is 58 billion dollar, drop compared to the same period 13% , and relatively the level before epidemic situation falls 1/5.
But from last year the end of the year begins, large trade in succession be born. For instance, american Diamondback the sources of energy and marathon oil open up respectively endowment 3 billion dollar, bought be located in the Permian and Eagle Ford (accipitral Ford) the asset of the basin.
Only this year in January, this industry is bought trade dimensions is as high as 5 billion dollar. Among them, american Matador the sources of energy bought Advanced of company of Permian artesian well with 1.6 billion dollar, old independent oil trades business thought is much (Vitol) beat company of numerous and famous energy, bought Telahua basin resources company (Delaware Bay Resources) .
Banker people say, this shows the market is warming up.
Drive and buy trade the factor with prime upsurge depends on, a lot of production business are afraid, after experiencing insanity of 10 years to drill, high grade and shaly oil field moves toward the United States quickly dried up.
Media is in the end of the year reported last year, permian basin exceeds the high grade land of 2/3 to had been drilled, the yield that increases new oil well glides, produce business to be being drilled toward darker place.
Additional, banker people express, oil company repaid one year in the past the debt of hundreds 100 million dollars, have enough capital support to be bought trade.
Last year, drive in what Russia black conflicts below, house of price of the sources of energy does not fall high, brought record-breaking profit for industry of American oil gas.
The data of advisory company Rystad shows, business of production of American shale oil created even more last year the free cash of 150 billion dollar flows a record, predict to will create 120 billion dollar again 2023. Free cash flows is a when assess oil industry main index.
Whether to American shale oil lifts “ and buy wet ” to mean oil industry to walking out of “ to make money only, not the odd group of increase production ” ?
It is negative that shale oil business is led probably to this manner, they think increase production will damage this industry profit.
The Scott Sheffield of apparitor of vanward rich banquet that the United States' big shale produces one of business expresses, it is cost with sacrificial partner redound, use profit at enlarging production, will bring about investor to escape, make this industry “ returns ” of stock market bottom.
We see the prices of market of 12 kinds of plastic raw material take situation analysis together below.
General
Plastic
No.1 PP: Narrow cut is arranged
PP| PE | ABS | PS | PVC | EVA
●Influencing factor ●
PP futures slants mood of spot market of weak concussion be a burden on, together with near future is downstream demand expression slants weak, gas is bought to owe beautiful inside field, trafficker follows a shipment yielding benefit, the market is handed in cast flatly, solid many dishes emphasize particularly on exchange views.
●City forecasts ● after
Predict, PP market arranges continuance is small posture now, adjust range too won't big, follow-up attention advanced position produces company unit trends and downstream order situation.
No.2 PE: Go up drop each other shows
PP | PE| ABS | PS | PVC | EVA
●Influencing factor ●
China linear of Beijing University area goes up partly drop 10-50 yuan / ton, high-pressured share rises drop 20-50 yuan / ton, low-pressure film stuff drops individually 30-50 yuan / ton, pull silk to drop individually 20-30 yuan / ton; Linear of Hua Dong large area goes up partly 20-50 yuan / ton, high pressure and low-pressure share rise 50 yuan / ton; Linear of Hua Na large area, high pressure and low-pressure share rise drop 20-50 yuan / ton. Linear futures opens exalted concussion high, majority of petrifaction producer price is stable, trafficker offers to be followed more row with respect to city, terminal factory receives goods intent relatively careful, just needed to purchase give priority to, solid dish the price emphasizes particularly on one onefold talk.
●City forecasts ● after
Predict, now polyethylene market value or maintain concussion to go situation. Hua Dong spot price is in 8050-8150 yuan / ton interval moves.
No.3 ABS: Dish move infirmly
PP | PE | ABS| PS | PVC | EVA
●Influencing factor ●
Hua Dong market slants weak concussion, the share is common makings price firm syncopation is soft, supply of goods of the trade that manage money is transferred not free. Businessman of share of Hua Na market holds out valence, but clinch a deal to the limit of one's capacity suffers as before be restricted, the part buys dish of small Chan Gang to need to purchase downstream give priority to. The amplitude modulation below factory price of factory of northern part ABS is in 80-200 yuan / ton differ.
●City forecasts ● after
Predict, short-term and main area slants below weak posture, exhausted condition of ABS market or continuance.
No.4 PS: Hand in cast refuse to budge
PP | PE | ABS | PS| PVC | EVA
●Influencing factor ●
Narrow cut of raw material styrene is fluctuant, PS cost carries how-to inadequacy; PS holds money business to follow give priority to with respect to city shipment all right, buy dish by need to purchase, hand in cast delicate.
●City forecasts ● after
Predict, refuse to budge of market of PS of short line home dish whole.
No.5 PVC: Narrow cut is arranged
PP | PE | ABS | PS | PVC| EVA
●Influencing factor ●
Concussion of PVC futures interval, a price and spot price clinch a deal coexist, purchase enthusiasm downstream passable, but still hang sheet to give priority to with low, clinch a deal actually not much, whole clinchs a deal atmosphere slants weak.
●City forecasts ● after
Predict, now the concussion between PVC section of the market, mainstream of Hua Dong SG-5 clinchs a deal interval or in 6100-6250 yuan / ton.
No.6 EVA: Weak force is arranged
PP | PE | ABS | PS | PVC | EVA
●Influencing factor ●
Although petrifaction factory price continues to move go up, like that contest pats dish of expression to owe beautiful, course of study person state of mind bear pressure apparent. Trafficker part gains profit dish of active shipment, pull small market to clinch a deal centre of gravity. Terminal company is much more careful and wait-and-see, purchase atmosphere to have fall after a rise a bit.
●City forecasts ● after
Predict, short-term EVA price or weak force are arranged give priority to, VA18 content is epispastic expect or in 16500-17000 yuan / ton.
Project
Plastic
No.1 PA6: Weak force moves
PA6| PA66 | PC | PMMA | POM | PET
●Influencing factor ●
Concussion of pure benzene market is fluctuant, the cost performance that prop up is average, manufacturer offers become loose, downstream factory slants wait-and-see be in the majority, meet low right amount filling goods, the market is handed in project aura insipid, the market clinchs a deal afternoon centre of gravity draws close low.
●City forecasts ● after
Predict, on the low side of value of short-term PA6 market.
No.2 PA66: Narrow cut concussion
PA6 | PA66| PC | PMMA | POM | PET
●Influencing factor ●
Hua Dong oneself 2 sour markets slant to play detective infirmly. The profit inside field is good drive finite, course of study person kink of state of mind, partial low still is put, the market exchanges views centre of gravity to go low, press downstream require town, purchase discretion, wait-and-see solid single cross joins a state.
●City forecasts ● after
Predict, short-term PA66 market is weak move.
No.3 PC: Weak force continues
PA6 | PA66 | PC| PMMA | POM | PET
●Influencing factor ●
Price of partial home factory is reduced, extent 300-400 yuan / ton, partial plant price still is waited for adjust. Weak force of state of mind of businessman of each district market is wait-and-see, initiative offers reduce, the market is handed in cast delicate.
●City forecasts ● after
Short-term PC benefit is lacked very much, weak force of market state of mind, anticipate hand in cast pressure, weak force prices still of short duration continues.
No.4 PMMA: Hold firm move
PA6 | PA66 | PC | PMMA| POM | PET
●Influencing factor ●
Performance of raw material market is average, particle factory certain price offers, just needed buy to give priority to downstream, hand in put in a quantity finite.
●City forecasts ● after
Predict, market of particle of PMMA of short line home is held firm move, hua Dong market is homebred particle reference 13300-15000 yuan / ton, price of particle of entrance of Hua Dong market is in 13400-16000 yuan / ton, later period reachs farther attention raw material friendship condition.
No.5 POM: Slant to go by force tall
PA6 | PA66 | PC | PMMA | POM| PET
●Influencing factor ●
State of mind of POM petrifaction factory is strong, market continuance is fried go up atmosphere, goods of trafficker cherish work off is given priority to, downstream user is pressed neatly require follow-up, the mainstream offers go up a 100-400 yuan / ton.
●City forecasts ● after
Predict, market of POM of short line home will be big firm small move.
No.6 PET: Narrow cut goes up
PA6 | PA66 | PC | PMMA | POM | PET
●Influencing factor ●
PTA spot price closes go up 64 to 5470, glycol closes go up 60 to 4102.5, aggregate cost 6051.19 yuan / ton. Polyester raw material rises power is insufficient, short-term or continue dish of whole situation, polyester bottle piece cost props up inadequacy, the market is handed in cast delicate.
●City forecasts ● after
Predict, bottle of near future polyester piece or concussion dish whole give priority to.