” of black gold of “ of material of —— of 1. carbon fiber, trade barrier tall, product is add 1.1 carbon fiber of 　 of value big 　 are firm soft and aid, apply phylogeny of extensive 　 material and human phylogeny to be linked together cheek by jowl downstream, and new material is to drive the mankind more the powerful motive force that from “ nature regnal ” moves toward ” of “ realm of freedom. Material is to use the material that makes useful thing by the definition normally, the mankind is mixed to the acknowledge of material used ability to decide social configuration and human standard of living directly. Now, material, the sources of energy and information had become the 3 big pillar that make social civilization and national economy, and among them the corporeal foundation that material is technology development more and technical forerunner. Review whole material phylogeny, spend for dimension with time but its reduce stone implement / bronze ware / ironware / steely / silicon / new material develops period 6 times this. Among them, issue the open of revolution of half leaf new technology as 20 centuries, new material becomes the roll booster that domain of each new and high technology develops already, for example the industrialized production that computer technology relies on semiconductor material, space navigation industry needs data of structure of high strenth of many high temperature to it form a complete set, and contemporary and fiber-optic communication is the optical fiber with low consumption is cornerstone more. Carbon fiber is known as the king of 21 centuries new material, it is the bright phearl of a bright on material imperial crown. Carbon fiber (Carbon Fiber, abbreviation CF) it is prep above of a kind of quantity that contain carbon the inorganic fiber of 90% . By organic fiber (stick glue radical, bitumen radical, polyacrylonitrile base fiber) below high temperature environment splitting decomposition carbonization forms carbon advocate catenary orgnaization and make. Enhance fiber as new generation, carbon fiber has excellent mechanical performance and chemical property, have the nature feature with inherent material with carbon element already, have both again machinability of spin fibrous softness, because this is applied extensively at aerospace, the sources of energy,equipment, traffic carries, sports is recreational wait for a domain: Quality is light: As a kind of function exceedingly good strategical new material, carbon fiber density and magnesium and Beryllium comparative basically, be less than the 1/4 of steel, use carbon fiber composite material to be able to make as structural member material tractor dry mass reduces 30%-40% . High strenth, high standard measures: Of carbon fiber 5 times taller than steel than intensity, 4 times taller than aluminium alloy; The 1.3-12.3 that the quantity that compare a pattern is other construction material times. Coefficient of expansion is small: The hot coefficient of expansion that most carbon fiber issues in room temperature is negative number, it is when 200-400 ℃ 0, it is 1.5 ×10-6 /K only when be less than 1000 ℃ , not easy because work temperature is high and expand be out of shape. Be able to bear or endure chemistry is caustic good: Content of carbon fiber pure carbon is high, and one of chemical elements that carbon is stability, bring about its to be behaved in acerbity, alkaline environment all very stable, can make of all kinds and chemical anticorrosive product. Fight fatigue ability strong: Carbon fiber structure is stable, according to statistic of high polymer net, millions of exhaustion of stress of classics of its composite material after second loop experiments, intensity reservation rate still has 60% , and rolled steel is 40% , aluminous material is 30% , glass reinforced plastics has 20%-25% only. Carbon fiber composite material is carbon fiber foundation go up again aggrandizement. Although carbon fiber can be used alone,develop specific function, however its belong to brittleness material after all, with base material only union forms carbon fiber composite material, ability develops mechanical property better, bear the weight of more bear. Carbon fiber can spend classification according to the different dimension such as former silk type, production method, function: Press classification of former silk type: Polyacrylonitrile (PAN) base, bitumen radical (isotropy, intermediate photograph) ; Stick glue radical (cellulose base, rayon base) . Among them, polyacrylonitrile (PAN) base carbon fiber holds mainstream position, crop occupies the 90% above of carbon fiber gross, stick glue radical carbon fiber to still be not worth 1% . According to production condition and methodological classification: Carbon fiber (800-1600 ℃ ) , black lead fiber (2000-3000 ℃ ) , active carbon fiber, gas phase grows carbon fiber. Can divide by mechanical function for general-purpose and high-powered model: General-purpose carbon fiber intensity is controlled in 100GPa in quantity of 1000MPa, model; High-powered model divide again for excel in model (intensity 2000MPa, model measures 250GPa) with tall model (above of modular quantity 300GPa) , among them intensity is more than 4000MPa call freeboard again strong model, the model measures those who be more than 450GPa to call freeboard model. By silk bundle size can divide for small silk bundle with big silk bundle: Small silk bundle carbon fiber initial stage is given priority to with 1K, 3K, 6K, develop to be mixed for 12K gradually 24K, main application lies fallow at aerospace, sports wait for a domain. Call 48K above carbon fiber big normally bundle of carbon fiber, include 48K, 60K, 80K to wait, basically apply at industrial domain. Tensile strength and drawing model quantity are to weigh the two thumb bid with carbon fiber main function. It is a basis with this, our country was promulgated 2011 " polyacrylonitrile (PAN) base carbon fiber standard (GB/T26752-2011) " . In the meantime, as a result of Japan Dong Li has absolutely and banner advantage in carbon fiber industry, domestic manufacturer mostly synchronous also the classified level that uses Japanese Dong Li serves as reference. 1.2 tall camp bring high additional cost, batch of promotion craft, implementation changes production to be able to fall significantly this synergism 　 　 camp of 1.2.1 industries technology is tall, former silk production is core, carbonization oxidation is pull current of crucial 　 carbon fiber Cheng Fu is miscellaneous, extremely tall to equipment and technical requirement. The control of each link precision, temperature and time becomes great influence character to measure eventually. Polyacrylonitrile carbon fiber because preparation flow is opposite cost of simple, production low, 3 useless place are convenient wait for a characteristic to become show level application field the carbon fiber with wide, high yield. Its are main raw material propane can be made from inside crude oil, catenary of industry of polyacrylonitrile carbon fiber includes the whole production process that uses to terminal from the sources of energy. Make from inside crude oil after propane, propane classics is alternative catalytic dehydrogenation (PDH) attainable propylene; After ammonia oxidizes, propylene classics gets propylene nitrile, polyacrylonitrile gets after propylene nitrile polymerization and filature (PAN) polyacrylonitrile course of 　 of former silk; gets carbon fiber after oxidation, low temperature and high temperature carbonization beforehand, can make carbon fiber fabric and carbon fiber beforehand dip makings, use at producing carbon fiber composite material; The material such as carbon fiber classics and colophony, pottery and porcelain is united in wedlock, form carbon fiber composite material, hind by all sorts of shaping craft gets applied need downstream eventually product; Level of former silk quality, performance decided carbon fiber directly eventually function. Accordingly, improve the quality of filature fluid, each element that optimizes former silk to shape makes preparation the crucial node of high quality carbon fiber. According to " polyacrylonitrile base carbon fiber Yuan Sisheng produces craft to consider " description, filature craft basically includes 3 kinds big: Wet filature, dry method filature and work wet filature. Current, the technology that manufactures polyacrylonitrile former silk domestic and internationally basically is used wet filature and dry wet filature, among them wet the application of filature is extensive. Wet filature squeezes filature fluid from gush silk aperture first piece, filature fluid enters caky bath with the configuration of brooklet in. The mechanism becoming silk of polyacrylonitrile filature fluid is: In filature fluid with the DMSO in caky bath (2 methylic sulphoxide) chroma is put in bigger difference, and the chroma of the water in caky bath and polyacrylonitrile solution also is put in huge gap. Below the interaction that in above two kinds of chroma differ, begin between the liquid two-way diffuse, pledge through passing, conduct heat, the process such as photograph balance shift condenses into former silk eventually. Intensity of surplus of incomplete of the DMSO in former silk production, fibber number, monofilament, modular quantity, shrinkage of percentage elongation, oil content, boiling water becomes the crucial factor that affects former silk quality. It is with DMSO incomplete surplus exemple, its are character, sectional to former silk apparent condition, eventually the CV value of carbon fiber product all influential, DMSO incomplete surplus is smaller, the performance of the product is higher. The means purify DMSO of bath basically is passed in production, how to control the element such as dosage of water of bath temperature, time, desalination and bath abide quantity to make important segment consequently. The polyacrylonitrile former silk of high quality should have the following feature: High density, tall crystallization is spent, the physical blemish with proper intensity, sectional, less circle, the face that has light to slip at the same time and even and compact leather core structure. Control of temperature of link of carbonization, oxidation is crucial. Carbonization oxidation is former silk makes carbon fiber eventually the necessary link of the product, this link needs to have accurate control to the precision of temperature, limits, will affect the tensile strength of carbon fiber product significantly otherwise, create appearance of fracture of wire even: Oxidize beforehand (200-300 ℃ ) : Oxidize beforehand link brings to bear on through be in oxidisability atmosphere constant tension, former to PAN silk undertakes slow and gentle oxidation, a large number of annulus are formed to hold a construction on the foundation of PAN straight catenary, achieve thereby can be able to bear or endure the end that gets higher temperature processing. Carbonization (high temperature spends not under 1000 ℃ ) : Carbonization process needs to undertake in inert atmosphere. Straight catenary of PAN of carbonization initial stage ruptures, begin to undertake cross-linking reacts; Rise gradually as temperature, pyrolysis reaction begins, release gas of many young member, black lead structure begins to form; After temperature rises further, carbolic element content rises quickly, carbon fiber begins to shape. Graphitization (handle temperature) of 2000 ℃ above: Graphitization is not carbon fiber to make necessary process, for optional link. If expectation carbon fiber has amount of high stretch standard, need to undertake graphitization; If expectation carbon fiber gains high strength, need not undertake graphitization. In graphitization link, high temperature makes fiber interior forms the structure of black lead wire side that develop, undertake rectifying changing getting thereby to the structure through draft eventually product. Hi-tech camp gifts downstream product is expensive additional cost, formerer silk multiplies price of aviation answer material 200 times. Because difficulty of carbon fiber preparation is tall, technology is sophisticated, accordingly its product swims downward more additional cost is higher, the high-end carbon fiber that uses at aerospace domain especially answer material, because downstream client is right requirement of its dependability, stability is very strict exacting, commonner also carbon fiber shows product value geometrical multiple grows. Make over a manual publicly according to Jiangsu constant god (2015) statistic, same breed former silk, carbon fiber, beforehand dip makings, civil answer material, car answer material and aviation every kilograms of price is answer material about respectively 40 yuan, 180 yuan, 600 yuan, be less than 1000 yuan, mix 8000 yuan 3000 yuan, every leap implementation via value of product of one class deep treatment, price of aviation answer material formerer silk was to turn over 200 times more. Cost of production of 1.2.2 carbon fiber is high, raise craft, batch to change production to all be fall cost of this production of carbon fiber of good plan 　 is higher, it is burgeoning material, it is material of “ noble ” more. Can design the carbon fiber with stronger sex to belong to burgeoning material, but the ticket that taller Yuan Sisheng produced investment of cost, environmental protection and manufacturing transport costs to affix ” of “ noble material for its. According to " development of carbon fiber industrialization and cost analysis " discuss, relatively the investment of PAN former silk of high quality and carbon fiber yield than making an appointment with 2.2:1, the former silk of inferior quality and carbon fiber yield than making an appointment with 2.5:1, the course such as oxidation of silk of overlay polymerization, gush, carbonization is right the demand such as environment, integrated technology is higher, bring about carbon fiber to produce cost house not to fall high further. Production charge occupies carbon fiber to produce the 70% above of totle drilling cost normally. Annual report of company of lumber of ability of the Jian Ke in the basis, Guang Wei answer, its carbon fiber produces cost to basically wait by material, artificial, production charge form, 2016-2019 year products of afore-mentioned two companies carbon fiber make charge occupy its cost to all be in 70% above, make the main pay in producing a course. Spend in order to produce flow for dimension, aggregate, filature and carbonization oxidation are his those who produce cost is main form: Aggregate: This phase basically includes to use up the straightforward production that make by raw material and manufacturing goods and materials cost, by rarefied with carry raw material, group, filter ／ carries former fluid, reclaim the manufacturing process cost that the cost such as monomer ／ dissolvent makes, and the integrated production cost that makes by the cost such as dimension of carry of establishment of vapour, electric power, water, form a complete set. Filature: Manufacturing cost is filtering centrally ／ carries aggregate fluid, filature, purify etc. In industrial catenary, former silk is occupied in carbon fiber cost commonly than 51% . Carbonization combustion process: Cost basically is handling place to want raw material centrally (include water of size agent, report, nitrogen, loop) , dimension of carry of establishment of form a complete set, workshop is clean change, reach the cost such as char off-gas treatment. Raise the link craft such as oxidation of filature, carbonization to be able to reduce cost significantly. Specific means includes: 1) use dry spray wet replace a tradition wet filature: After wet spinning of dry in season comes out from gush silk aperture for filature fluid, pass first caky engineering technology has in do paragraph of air layer or caky fluid just is being entered after nitrogen layer. Comparative tradition is wet filature, this method but filature speed from minutely rise 100 meters reach 300 meters, make solid content rises to 22% above. According to " analysis of cost of production of PAN radical carbon fiber and control measure " state, the use of new filature craft is reducing cost of carbon fiber former silk (reduce 75% ) while raise yield (2-8 times or so) . 2) use new technology to shorten oxidize beforehand time: Lab of mountain of oak of American energy department (ORNL) the plasma of research and development oxidizes beforehand the law can make oxidize beforehand time shortens to 25-35 minute (general need 80~120 minute) , this method can make specific power consumption drops 75% , manufacturing cost is reduced 20% , apply to the carbon fiber production of all norms. In addition, use shed voice to change heat, hot roller contact is dry wait for new technology to all can reduce manufacturing cost effectively. 3) change char furnace material, raise carbonization link to heat up utilization rate: The char heat that company of American haing berth produces uses insulation or fireproof material replaces traditional water refrigeration to operate, reduce the loss of quantity of heat of equipment continuously; In addition, according to " analyse of composition of compose of cost of preparation of PAN radical carbon fiber and its control are discussed " state, adopt more than hot multistage to use wait for new technology to be able to reduce equipment specific power consumption effectively, make every tons of cost reduces carbon fiber 9500 yuan. Promotion crop can bring scope effect, reduce carbon fiber effectively to produce cost. According to " development of carbon fiber industrialization and cost are analysed " statistic, the yield of former silk and carbon fiber can show inverse ratio concern with manufacturing cost. As produce can expand, the amplitude that former silk and carbon fiber produce a line to produce cost directly is less than the cost such as depreciation of cost of only waste time, fixed assets and charge of going from place to place significantly fall, kiloton class carbon fiber produces a line to be become every year this relatively 100 tons of class produce a line to drop 18% . Industry of carbon fiber of 1.3 our country in the ascendant, innovation of tremendous 　 technology aids latent capacity push promotion of carbon fiber function, homebred change replacing is an industry ” of changeless “ air. Our country from 20 centuries 60 time later period begins research of PAN radical carbon fiber, all previous develops via half century, although still have notable difference with abroad,show level but already but own preparation wait for a series of high end carbon fiber for the delegate with T700, T800, M55J, break technical block of abroad successfully, achievement strikings. Review phylogeny of domestic carbon fiber, we its reduce is the following 5 phase: System of the whole nation, from do not have have (1962-1982) : Carbon fiber of this phase our country considers to just started, height values job of carbon fiber research and development, PAN radical carbon fiber develops laboratory of physics of composite material of task group, high polymer to hold water in succession, build ability of trial-produce of PAN former silk to make an appointment with 50 tons / year, 1.5-2.0 of ability of trial-produce of carbon fiber filament ton / year, solved carbon fiber from do not have some problems. Try to introduce, fumble in difficulty (1983-1990) : This period committee of science and technology is encouraged introduce foreign advanced technique and acceptance will give capital support, but because carbon fiber technology involves the field such as national defence, overlay “ Paris plans as a whole the limitation of treaty ” , introduce a process to step forward dimension difficult, make an on-the-spot investigation via negotiating for many times, our country purchases productivity from British RK company with 4.5 million dollar eventually 100 tons (12K) / year carbonization equipment, but moving efficiency is inferior. 10 years of “ backwater ” (1990-2000) : The complexity that produces as a result of carbon fiber and abroad block to the technology of our country, although organize each actively to study unit resultant force tackles key problem but crucial technology is broken through hard as before, only auspicious spends this period factory of element of carbon of company, Jilin and Beijing chemical college are maintaining small lot to offer money, unit of other research and development exits this domain in succession. “ works energetically go up quickly ” , carbon fiber greets construction tide (2000-2010) : In Shi Changxu academician arouse and support energetically below, ministry of science and technology decides to establish carbon fiber special, establish expert group, include 863 plans new material field carbon fiber. In addition, of many folk capital swarm into ecbolic also a company of production of a batch of carbon fiber, according to " market of composite material of 2019 carbon fiber reports " statistic, 2000-2010 year, the place of scientific research courtyard that has carbon fiber project and manufacturing unit amount to 40 above, investment dimensions exceeds 30 billion yuan, manufactory of equipment of complete carbon fiber also greeted regale. Sea cleans out sand, superior bad discard (2010 up to now) : Although early days has numerous carbon fiber to produce a business but did not master core technology mostly, production of overlay carbon fiber makes investment characteristic of kick one's heels of cycle of big, construction, partial industry survives hard, the industry begins to experience “ to shuffle ” , industry measure is cut reach more than 10. In addition, high grade enterprise greets this period spring: Light power group and in brief science and technology appears on the market successfully, in answer god eagle make up the deficits and get surpluses, jilin chemical fibber makes faucet of domestic former silk, the industry realized batch of T700 class carbon fiber to change project of fibrous of black lead of production and T800 class carbon fiber, M40J to influence preparation, technology of preparation of lab of fiber of black lead of carbon fiber of breakthrough T1000 class, M50J, M55J, M60J, have the base that develops next generation fiber research and development. Policy gives aid to accelerate research and development and industrialization process, product competition ability rises ceaselessly, carbon fiber industry enters development drive. Our country government begins to support the development of homebred carbon fiber energetically namely from 70 time, the “7511” meeting that by Zhang Aiping's general the organization holds laid the foundation that gives aid to homebred carbon fiber develops, and “863” plan is more carbon fiber is in policy level homebred change replace point to clear advancement direction; Pass “ 925 ” of 915 ” of 15 ” , “ , “ 3 Five-Year Plan, puissant the technology that supported homebred carbon fiber tackles key problem, project industrialization and applied drawing, make the development of homebred carbon fiber obtains great progress. We think, carbon fiber does not have the king ” of crown as the “ of new material, will get further henceforth of policy give aid to for a long time, industry environment hopeful is improved ceaselessly, the powerful motive force with the infuse constant in a steady stream that for the technology function of breakthrough, product upgrades. 2, Shi Yi grows ability, the road 　 　 that carbon fiber of detailed solution beauty, day rises abruptly 2.1 face up to with foreign difference, it is short board also be innovation of technology of ascendant space 　 , policy gives aid to, the 3 great power that application upgrades is development of estate of drive carbon fiber. Comb carbon fiber to produce flow and industrial chain through inducing we develop the property logistic summary to be at 4 o'clock: 1) technology of devoted stimulative core breaks through a large number of research and development, enhance carbon fiber function and competition ability quickly, accelerate a product to upgrade replacement; 2) high-end product is satisfied and breed downstream demand further, applied end is extended to high-end domain ceaselessly, the “ of implementation requirement pledges ”“ measures ” Qi Sheng; 3) exuberant and durable order for goods promotes an enterprise outstanding achievement significantly, improve its cash to flow, attract high grade capital to last infuse; 4) policy tilts overlay cash flows abundant, the enterprise will invest resource of more research and development and enlarge scale of production, reduce manufacturing cost effectively. With afore-mentioned industries development serves as frame logically, show industry of carbon fiber of level our country to wait for a respect in cost of function of core technology equipment, product, production and dimensions more beautiful, day still has bigger difference, incorporate is the following at 3 o'clock: 1) the background science problem such as carbon fiber development, application is still incomplete, high-end carbon fiber and its answer material relatively abroad still has acting difference. Although research of our country carbon fiber starts early, but the industry that waits for fiber as a result of inchoate lack acrylic fibbers produces a base, overlay abroad's strict technology blocks, bring about our country to there still is cognitive blind spot in the technical domain such as carbon fiber craft, composition, structure, function. According to " the innovation of industry of high-powered carbon fiber develops " discuss, the field such as foreign aerospace is already extensive application is the 2nd acting advanced composite material that basically strengthens put oneself in another's position with T800 class carbon fiber, and still enlarge applied phase at the 1st acting advanced composite material on the whole, the project of T800 class carbon fiber changes application to still be in development phase. Advanced level of high-powered fiber and its composite material and abroad is put in acting difference. 2) industrialization craft and equipment core technology still have no substaintial breakthrough, bring about an enterprise to have produce can not have sales volume, the entrance is depended on serious. Show level homebred carbon fiber still with small silk bundle the product is given priority to, high quality, big silk bundle, technology of production of industrialization of low cost, large-scale carbon fiber had be notted break through, and abroad already began bundle of low cost and will big small silk bundle industrialization of high quality carbon fiber produces technical confluence, character of promotion carbon fiber while reduce cost further. According to " market of composite material of 2019 carbon fiber reports " statistic, demand of our country carbon fiber made an appointment with 38 thousand tons 2019, import a quantity to occupy among them 68% ; In addition, our country carbon fiber moved 2019 produce can be 26 thousand tons and sales volume is 12 thousand tons only, sales volume / produce can compare it is only 34% (international is in normally 65%-85% ) . We think, rate of carbon fiber industrialization narrates complete ascertain of background science unfinished not high before ascribe on one hand, because enterprise and place of scientific research courtyard have not establish effective cooperation mechanism,bring about “ to produce ” and “ to grind on the other hand ” photograph is detached. In addition, because equipment is homebred change insufficient, weak to introducing equipment 2 times to transform ability, can make craft goes catering to equipment condition only, lose the industrialization criterion that is core with craft thereby, bring about product quality stability further poor, produce can release rate is low. 3) low problem causes rate of function inadequacy, industrialization downstream “ won't use bad ” problem to highlight with ” , “ , did not upgrade to demand form effective drawing. According to " market of composite material of 2019 carbon fiber reports " statistic, home came from sports 2019 the carbon fiber demand of recreational domain is occupied than amounting to 37% , and demand of aerospace high end is occupied than be only 4% , watch demand of carbon fiber of aerospace domain high end to occupy instead than be as high as 23% . We think, the main reason of unbalance of downstream demand structure is in our country carbon fiber to did not form the whole technological process that carbon fiber produces to enclothe at domestic most company, industrial catenary each link is relatively dispersive, bring about industry shortage to arrive from the design to carbon fiber create the compositive capacity that reachs to apply downstream again, make eventually downstream application upgrades hard, did not pull a movement to use to what demand generation lasts. The stone of 2.2 his hill: The technology is achieved first carbon fiber of 　 of market of develop of soil of Yo of machine, policy, application only then at the United States, promote at Japan, setting of industrial conformity, application expands ceaselessly is to show level industry to develop a theme: Carbon fiber only then at incandescent lamp illuminant, japan, England takes the lead in beginning research and development of PAN radical carbon fiber. Edison hair palpability was the incandescent lamp of illuminant with carbon fiber 1879 and gain initial success at the United States, but because replace and be immersed in by tungsten filament,become silent subsequently. 20 centuries 50 time, beautiful Su Zheng bully during, the United States is research and development large rocket and orbiter and performance of comprehensive promotion plane, be badly in need of new-style structure material and be able to bear or endure ablation material, carbon fiber appears in material science arena afresh again. 1959, male doctor of clear of close cane of place of experiment of Japanese Osaka industry invents technology of preparation of PAN radical carbon fiber, subsequently 60 time day, flower take the lead in beginning technology of PAN radical carbon fiber to tackle key problem, and contemporaneous United States still is capturing stick glue radical technology, bring about its PAN radical carbon fiber considers to start later. 1970-1990 year, carbon fiber project is changed, industrialized technology is captured early or late, product gradually seriation, applied setting obtains major breakthrough. 20 centuries 70 time, day, beautiful, flower begin frequent technology collaboration, the United States acquires carbonization technology from England and with Japanese Dong Li, Dong Banghe 3 water chestnut spread out a technology to make over, subsequently the United States and Japan get lever of carbon fiber golf and fishing rod at was being made 1972, fashionable. Contemporaneous, answer material realized carbon fiber at aerospace (army, civil) the project on structural member turns application, take the lead in realizing batch to turn production on military plan, become the cornerstone that carbon fiber flies. Cross 80 time, line of carbon fiber per unit area yield is produced can break through kiloton / year, beautiful product pedigree is abounded increasingly east (T300, T800, T1000, M60J) , the civil aviation that is a delegate with Boeing, empty guest is budding to carbon fiber demand, t300 took the lead in getting applied on B757, B767 and space shuttle 1982. However, because England lacks application to prop up begin to be given priority to in order to transfer a technology, transfer the technology respectively, India, Russia and Brazil. 1990-2000 year, carbon fiber is greeted and buy tide, position of beautiful, day is farther firm, oligarch phase is initial form. Manufacturer of each big carbon fiber begins this period share of market of race to control, american conspicuous family name bought American conspicuous to help carbon fiber industry of Kelesi; Mo Ke of A of American oil tycoon is integrated the carbon fiber resource of major United States, include company of American couplet carbon to still have Dongbang and United States not only Sailannisi the carbon fiber asset that the company cooperates (change was cyanogen spy CYTEC 2001) . Xigeli bought tycoon of German black lead the RK Carbon that England takes an examination of Tao Erci to stay, so far England of —— of carbon fiber pioneer takes an examination of Tao Erci to exit historical arena. Enter 21 centuries, conformity of carbon fiber industry still is continueing, the burgeoning domain such as report of downstream application aweather, car is extended quickly. Enter 21 centuries, industry conformity still is in continuance, SGL pulls the share that bought joint-stock carbon fiber, Japan from place of A Er flute east state bought Dong Li of carbon fiber of American Fu Dafei Er, Japan to buy Zhuo Ertai to overcome; Meanwhile aerospace, car, wind-force generates electricity wait for application of domain carbon fiber to expand quickly, the B787 of plane of so-called carbon fiber and A350 finished a consign 2014 at was being mixed 2011, BMW and Xigeli are joint-stock 2010 build carbon fiber factory to try to realize electric car thoroughly light quantify, because pull,squeeze board apply successfully at blade bridge cap, si Dasi of dimension of wind cable magnate is all-time to carbon fiber demand grow. With Shi Weijing, we think convoy of technical innovation, policy and application extend is the core variable that carbon fiber develops: Function of technical drive product upgrades, it is the power that carbon fiber expands. Beautiful, day develops initial stage to already realized core technology craft in carbon fiber is the foundation that realizes function promotion, have strategic position in succession subsequently, till the research and development that shows level to still use carbon fiber data in big thrust. It is with Japan exemple, from 20 centuries 60 time begin PAN radical carbon fiber after the technology tackles key problem, its every interval 5-10 year meet get rid of the stale and bring forth the fresh, those who achieve technology and product performance is comprehensive upgrade. Meanwhile, japanese home realized industrial alliance earlier, the member enclothed catenary of complete carbon fiber industry, study alliance like technology of new tectonic material (ISMA) , its share 39 members, 37 are an enterprise, 1 is national institute, the rest is national university 1 times. Through producing, learn, grinding deepness is united in wedlock, japan is among carbon fiber material technology, shape technology, join technology and reclaim technical domain all achieved major breakthrough, become carbon fiber powerful nation. Policy escorts the Emperor for unit of research and development, enterprise convoy, for carbon fiber development offers high grade soil. Since 20 centuries, beautiful, day all is in policy level add fuel to the fire, the development of industry of stimulative carbon fiber. If Japan is in,the project pushs carbon fiber as the key in including “ the sources of energy to plan the multinomial and basic policy such as ” of protocol of ” of outline of growing strategy of economy of ” , “ and “ Kyoto basically, in policy support falls, industry of Japanese carbon fiber is able to concentrate each resource more effectively, drive those who produce problem of general character of course of study to solve. In addition, bureau of advanced research plan was in American department of defense to started project of advanced structure fiber 2006, american energy department also offerred those who be as high as 11.3 million dollar to aid financially for project of many carbon fiber 2014. Company level, beautiful, day also offers policy “ convenient ” with optimizing industry environment ceaselessly. For example 20 centuries 80 time, company of American carbon fiber uses exterior processing pattern mostly, but as a result of the characteristic of carbon fiber material its develop to often get of exotic nation technology restrict, american home company is close to closing down for a time. American department of defense rolled out the strategy that waits for core of melt into of crucial material mainland with carbon fiber 1988, point out the material of key of national defence industry such as carbon fiber must autarky, helped enterprise of domestic carbon fiber walk out of predicament thereby. The “ that applying a domain to widen continuously is industry development always motive ” . Be used at incandescent lamp filament at the beginning of carbon fiber, after that as a result of contend for hegemony of thing of beautiful, Su Jun, carbon fiber begins to give out heat in glow of domain of aerospace of for military use, make weaponry reduce heavy sharp weapon. After this, as PAN base the breakthrough of carbon fiber technology, overlay is produced can promote brought scale effect, carbon fiber produces cost to be reduced considerably, carbon fiber begins to lie fallow in civil aviation, sports wait for a domain to shine brilliantly. Show level, generate electricity with wind-force, the car of pressure vessel, new energy resources burgeoning industry that is a delegate newly is small quantify demand exuberant, make the new drive that carbon fiber industry grows. We think, the abidance that uses a field widens will force carbon fiber industrialization, project changes technical progress on one hand, also swarm into those who attract more and high grade business on the other hand, for the industry development is offerred not exhaust motivation. 2.3 aviation are first the fly road 　 　 of —— Dong Li and hertz family name 2.3.1 Japan Dong Li: Accumulate 50 one's remaining years, aviation layout is greeted eventually blossom and bear fruit 　 　 grows 5 15 years times, dimensions of business of Dong Li carbon fiber breaks through 230 billion yen. 2019 income of business of Dong Li carbon fiber 236.9 billion yen, grow 9.7% compared to the same period, realize business gain 21 billion yen, business profit margin is 8.9% . 2004-2019 year, CAGR of income of business of Dong Li carbon fiber is amounted to 12% . Picture 　 understands thoroughly material value, “ exceeds long-term ” strategy to make carbon fiber faucet: At the beginning of Japanese Dong Li company founded 1926, be the family creates a production company only, abound oneself product system ceaselessly according to market demand subsequently, in deep know well the premise of value of progress of of all kinds material falls in succession research and development synthetic fibre, the most advanced material such as colophony, film, reach product promotion, become the “ with material unquestionable domain to get bellwether ” . Review phylogeny of business of Dong Li carbon fiber, we are summary of its success factor at 3 o'clock: 1) understand thoroughly carbon fiber to use value potentially ahead of schedule, manage investment of tall research and development, did not come for the company thick accumulate thin hair to lay a foundation; 2) the wind that develops by aviation, take the lead in realizing batch of high-end carbon fiber to change, dimensions turns production, at the same time vigorous inside limits expansion is produced can, market of ceaseless promotion company is had rate; 3) it is with aviation base, transverse layout wind-force generates electricity, the high end such as the car is civil domain, true implementation blossoms at many o'clock. From sports recreational domain cuts carbon fiber market, realize industrialized production. Dong Li started carbon fiber research and development 1961, began production 1971. The company is inchoate try to march domain of aviation carbon fiber, but when those Euramerican and main company focusing this market, order competition is intense, still belong to the Dong Li of small company to cannot be entered. Then company additional monarch paths, wait for a sporting goods through developing lever of fishing rod, ball, realize carbon fiber commercialize application and industrialized production. Take the wind of aviation, casting industry tycoon: 20 centuries 70 time later period, oil price violent wind rises, civil aviaton company is badly in need of light quantify enhance material in order to reduce airframe weight, mixed 1975 1987, dong Li carbon fiber applies at Boeing respectively of 737 auxiliary bearing of structure and empty guest A320 advocate bear in force component. According to Boeing company “ high tensile strength and stretch condition issue the requirement of more aluminous light 30%” , beautiful development goes the high-end carbon fiber such as T800 east and at going up 90 time remove the century to be used at Boeing in succession 767, 777, 787 reach empty guest A350 to go up. The compose that the outbreak of aviation demand quickens Dongli kiloton to produce a line is built and of 10 thousand tons of crop release, company implementation is transformed to what stabilize gain by early days deficit. Produce can outspread overlay transverse layout, carbon fiber produces a system to perfect continuously: 1) it is those who answer demand of carbon fiber of domain of boat cool one's heels to climb litre, dong Li devotes oneself to layout to be produced in order to come true all the time need to match. Dong Li set the manufacturing facilities that produces per month 60 thousand tons newly in factory love Yuan 1972, establish the carry out channel of American market through UCC company compose; Created Soficar company 1982, this company established factory put into production at Spain 1985; At Xiyatu environs established TCA company 1992, dikaite establishs CFA company and the plant was built in the United States 1997. Dong Li from this establish the operation system of 3 earth areas of Japan of over or across, Europe and United States. 2012 Dong Li decisions produce per year a quantity to increase 6000 tons, the group produces per year a quantity to expand to twenty-seven thousand one hundred tons, 2014 and also realized increase production respectively 2015. 2) Dong Li also uses oneself technology and market dominant position to extend high end civil domain, position of bibcock of firm carbon fiber. Car respect, 2010, dong Li and German Daimler company signed car component carbon fiber answer material develops a contract jointly; In addition, feng Tian parts with this cropland at 2014 and released hydrogenous fuel car 2016, automobile body all used data of Dong Li carbon fiber; Wind report respect, dong Li bought Zoltek company 2014, those who send force to be main use with lamina of wind report turbine is big bundle of domain. Family name of conspicuous of 2.3.2 United States: Material of deep ploughing answer applies, make carbon fiber of 　 of surveyor's pole of American aerospace carbon fiber answer material is main income source, gain ability grows continuously. Hertz family name is business of the United States' big carbon fiber production and composite material supplier, total battalion of hertz family name received 2.36 billion dollar 2019, among them answer material income is carbon fiber 1.86 billion dollar, occupy than nearly 80% ; 2006-2019 year carbon fiber of hertz family name answer material business profit rises to 410 million dollar by 120 million dollar, CAGR is amounted to 10% , business profit margin by 15% rise to 22% , gain ability increases ceaselessly. Aerospace is occupied than exceeding 85% , civil field is strong rise abruptly. Oneself of hertz family name is cent of its whole business aerospace of commercial aerospace, for military use and industrial things 3 kinds, 2005-2019 year its aerospace board piece business (for military use + civil) occupy than by 72% rise to 87% , commercial aerospace is occupied than by 49% rise to 68% , amplitude is remarkable. With Dong Li the data business of diversity differs, composite material of focusing of hertz family name applies 70 one's remaining years, company phylogeny also is the epitome of American aerospace history: Development initial stage devotes oneself to answer material research and development, take root aerospace. Hertz family name held water 1946, its product wore bomber and battleplan with what make at composite material 1953, after experiencing military expenditure to cut down the sale that cause to glide 1961, the United States jumped over a war to promote development of business of composite material of company beehive construction afresh 1965. 1993 because manage a problem, the company applies for to go bankrupt protection, raise fund with all possible means procuration goes bankrupt at was being cast off in Feburary 1995 after 50 million dollar protection. Cut carbon fiber and field of its composite material through buying, the company obtains “ 2 times to give birth to life ” . Hertz family name bought the composite material business of Ciba-Geigy and Hercule 1996, the aviation product that got a key produces qualification and carbon fiber productivity, carry on for sequel business of aviation of multinomial the army and the people, spaceflight lays next foundations. The project of engine of the army and the people such as Luo Ma, Boeing, empty guest is thick as hail, hertz family name enters stable gain period. Civilian taste a respect, the type such as 787 Dreamliner of helicopter of empty guest A380, A320, H160, Boeing, 747-8 all used composite material of carbon fiber of hertz family name; Army taste a respect, hertz family name is F35, V-22 (osprey) tilt the military plan such as opportunity for combat of machine of military transport of Apaji, A400M, bumblebee offers black shadow of autogiro, UH60M, AH-64 carbon fiber composite material; In addition, hertz family name also participated in sky of multinomial United States to if Apollo ascends space shuttle of month, Colombia to make,explore a plan etc, if be the constant growth of aerospace field professional work, make hertz family name firm sit American carbon fiber and its position of bibcock of answer material manufacturer. Sum up the development of family name of Dong Li, conspicuous to be able to reach again: 1) the foundation stone that investment of persistent research and development, indefatigable application practice makes an enterprise develop for carbon fiber; 2) aerospace is the touchstone that carbon fiber makes, approving the scope effect that quantifies production to bring is the key of enterprise decay; 3) later period high end is civil the transverse dilate of the domain is to carry the fine drug with evergreen business. 3. Market pole fast dilate, potential of domestic aerospace demand is tremendous 　 　 3.1 international markets: Aerospace holds dominant, wind report lamina is added fast driving 　 　 2019 carbon fiber demand second breakthrough 100 thousand tons. According to " market of composite material of 2019 carbon fiber reports " calculate, gross of carbon fiber demand amounted to 104 thousand tons 2019, grow 12% compared to the same period, amount reachs 2.87 billion dollar, compared to the same period amplitude 11.6% . 2008-2019 year CAGR of carbon fiber demand is 10% . This is carbon fiber develops 60 one's remaining years to come second breakthrough involves demand 100 thousand tons greatly, its mirrorred carbon fiber directly the abidance of downstream demand is outspread. To carbon fiber as each country investment is increased, core technology will be broken through ceaselessly, after majority core technology is mastered, 100 thousand tons of demand increase the next will shorten quickly with time, according to " market of composite material of 2019 carbon fiber reports " forecast, carbon fiber demand will achieve 200 thousand tons 2025, will achieve 40-50 2030 10 thousand tons. Aerospace takes place of main body of carbon fiber demand firmly as before. 2019 demand of aerospace domain carbon fiber twenty-three thousand five hundred tons, grow 12% compared to the same period, 23% what take quantity of total demand. Because carbon fiber of aerospace high end is monovalent taller, accordingly demand amount reached this domain 2019 1.41 billion dollar, 49% what take demand total amount. According to " market of composite material of 2019 carbon fiber reports " exposure, the addition of demand of aerospace domain carbon fiber basically originated 2019 Boeing 787 produce with empty guest A350 can outspread. Turn over 4 times 5 years, demand of wind report lamina is added fast driving. According to contest abstruse statistic of carbon fiber technology, 2014-2019 year the carbon fiber demand that comes from domain of wind report lamina rises to by 6000 tons twenty-five thousand five hundred tons, CAGR is amounted to 33.6% , add fast driving. 25% what came from the carbon fiber demand of domain of wind report lamina to occupy gross 2019, however because this domain carbon fiber is monovalent inferior, not remarkable to total amount contribution, 12% what hold total demand magnitude of value only. Demand of other sphere carbon fiber gains fast stability. According to " market of composite material of 2019 carbon fiber reports " statistic, 2019 car, pressure vessel, mix match a model to shape, the building fills strong, electron is electric wait for demand of domain carbon fiber and quantity of total demand to grow in coordination, add compared to the same period fast maintain in 12% the left and right sides. Among them, recreational field requirement adds sports fast slower, maintain the amplitude that 4-5% controls every year. 3.2 home market: Aerospace is occupied than inadequacy, lamina of report of recreational, wind is sports demand of carbon fiber of our country of main source 　 increases demand 12 years nearly 5 times. According to contest abstruse statistic of carbon fiber technology, 2008-2019 year demand of our country carbon fiber already came 38 thousand tons via rising by 8000 tons, 36% what take quantity of total demand, CAGR is amounted to 15% , add on average more than fast. Predict 2025, gross of demand of our country carbon fiber will achieve 119 thousand tons. Recreational domain is wind report lamina, sports main demand origin, aerospace demand is not worth badly: Fast growth of wind report lamina was pulled 2019 change industry whole requirement. Demand of carbon fiber of lamina of report of our country wind was thirteen thousand eight hundred tons 2019, grow compared to the same period amount to 72.5% , 36.5% what take quantity of total demand. Among them, homebred carbon fiber makes an appointment with 1000 tons, relatively the complete entrance 2018, strode homebred the situation that replace. Recreational domain is sports big source of demand of domestic carbon fiber. The mainland and Taiwan sports are recreational 2019 demand of domain carbon fiber is total 14 thousand tons, compared to the same period amplitude 4% , occupy quantity of total demand to be as high as 37% , 2014-2019 year sports is recreational the domain is big source of demand of our country carbon fiber all the time. Aerospace is occupied than be only 3.7% , difference of more average level is notable. 2019 demand of carbon fiber of our country aerospace 1400 tons, relatively rose 2018 400 tons. 2014-2019 year carbon fiber demand occupies domain of our country aerospace to be in than maintaining 2%-4% , more average 22%-24% (was 2014 29% ) difference is notable. 3.3 carbon fiber are aerospace necessary new material, hopeful of prospective increment demand defeats 　 of 10 thousand tons of 　 3.3.1 carbon fiber are driving aerospace to be stridden light quantify times 　 current, as a result of the rises to add tenacity skill with matrix colophony ceaselessly breakthrough of carbon fiber function, carbon fiber composite material is replacing traditional metal stuff to be applied extensively in aviation manufacturing industry stage by stage, especially the model in excel in, big stretchy carbon fiber, the compression that can raise concussion hind significantly intensity and heat-resisting / wet sex, those who make plane construction material not two anthology. Carbon fiber composite material can divide roughly in the application of aviation domain for 3 parts: 1) application is in get power not big or blame bear force member phase (the) such as lid of the face that be like helm, mouth; 2) application is in second bear force or bear power is greater component part phase (wait for) like wing; 3) application is in advocate bear force member or phase of complex component part getting power (like box of airframe, ala) etc; Inside limits airplane of each type military all uses carbon fiber composite material in great quantities: Battleplan: Answer material holds advanced type carbon fiber than promoting stage by stage, according to " carbon fiber and black lead fiber " statistic, the composite material of American F-14A is occupied only 1% , content of the composite material when the ”EP2000 of typhoon of “ of opportunity for combat that produces to England already was amounted to 40% . Helicopter: Composite material of theoretic 1kg carbon fiber is replaceable the aluminium alloy of 3kg, to helicopter, carbon fiber is had not only Gao Bijiang is spent and measure than the model, and have exceedingly good damp character, rise not easily namely brace up, case brace up hind can draw kinetic energy quickly and stop to come down, this can reduce flight load to hang what arise on the ala to pay fluctuant cost in helicopter. In addition, carbon fiber composite material has outstanding fatigue resistance, quiet intensity and fatigue intensity are compared for 0.6-0.7, and fibre glass is only 0.3, fiber of fragrant black silk ribbon is 0.5. The BK117 helicopter that develops with MBB company is exemple, composite material of this type carbon fiber is occupied than be as high as 75% , at using the component part of composite material, decrease on average heavy 33% , amount of average spare parts decreases 79% . In the meantime, what our country produces by Harbin aircraft production company is straight - 9 model dosage of helicopter composite material also exceeded 60% , this machine armed to be stationed in harbor army not only, and attended Shanghai collaboration to organize what hold in Russia to fear drilling instead. Heat-resisting + decrease heavy, carbon fiber aids force rocket, missile to fly higher, hit further. In environment of high temperature of 2000 ℃ above material with carbon element is the material that exclusive intensity does not fall, and carbon fiber of for military use can keep stable in environment of above of 3 000 ℃ , be able to bear or endure Wen Xingyuan exceeds titanium metal and its alloy, the structure such as the roll booster that is used extensively at the rocket consequently, shield, engine cover and missile housing, emissive canister. In addition, carbon fiber composite material also can reduce the quality of rocket and missile, increase its cannon-shot, raise placement precision. It is with missile exemple, according to " carbon fiber and black lead fiber " state, the solid engine housing of the United States, Japan, France basically uses carbon fiber composite material. American MK, SICBM, ballistic missile nose awl and line of larynx of engine spray pipe used intercontinental of trident Ⅰ motor-driven 3D C-CFRP (with carbon fiber the 3 carbon fiber composite material that are embryo body to basketwork) , guarder, SPI turned over ballistic missile nose awl to use 3D C-CFRP, commando Ⅲ nose awl also was used fine fabricate puncture C-C composite material. Spray pipe of engine of the 3rd class reachs MX ballistic missile trident II (of D-5) , spray pipe of 2 class engine used C-CFRP. ” of American “ Polaris, “ battle-ax ” , trident II (Trident-II, the solid engine housing of D-5) missile used CFRP. The case of one class motor of French M51 missile is braided by carbon fiber composite material and become. Carbon fiber can bring remarkable economic benefits for civil aviation. According to " carbon fiber and black lead fiber " description, use carbon fiber and its composite material to replace steel aluminous perhaps decrease heavy efficiency to be able to amount to 20%-40% , to the plane character, decrease can save fuel effectively again, rise range and carry ability completely, have remarkable economic benefits. On inchoate A310, B757 and B767, carbon fiber composite material is occupied than be 4%-7% only, as ceaseless progress of the technology, carbon fiber composite material serves as gradually second bear force member and advocate bear force member applies on the plane, its quality constitutes more progressively than also beginning promotion. To A380 when, composite material is occupied than achieving 25% , specific at the plane applying advocate bear force structure part if advocate wait next door box of ala, empennage, airframe, ala, pressure and second bear if force structure part assists material of ala, rudder and plane interior trim to wait, initiated the beginning that advanced composite material is in large-scale applying on air bus. On new B787 and A350 airframe, the dosage of composite material achieves 50% above, more component uses carbon fiber, for example envelope of nose, empennage, wing, make carbon fiber demand great promotion. 3.3.2 equipment upgrade demand of to the limit of one's capacity, civil aviaton climbs slope, carbon fiber adds demand newly to defeat gross of military plan of our country of 10 thousand tons of 　 to be the United States only 1/4, high-end opportunity for combat is occupied than inadequacy, extremely urgent of military plan iteration. According to " World Airforces 2020 " statistic, gross of our country military plan was 3210 2019, although row the 3rd but 1/4 what be the United States only. At present our country with annihilate - 7, annihilate - the 8 2 acting battleplan that are a delegate still are brunt, occupy than achieving 58% , 4 acting machine are occupied than be only 1% , and the U.S. Army is active service already did not have 2 acting battleplan, thirdly, 4 acting type occupy score to be 87% with 13% . We think, military plan of prospective our country upgrades replacement will be hasten of general trends place. Calculate via us, dimensions of demand of composite material of carbon fiber of prospective military plan will exceed 30 billion yuan: Weight of stand-alone of our country military plan and synchronism of content of carbon fiber composite material promote, hind of to the limit of one's capacity will produce multiplier effect. According to " the composite material application on aviation opportunity for combat " state, it is with fighter plane exemple, our country annihilate - 7 empty weight 5.3 tons, answer material content makes an appointment with carbon fiber 2% , empty weight of new generation opportunity for combat 17 tons, content of carbon fiber composite material makes an appointment with 25-30% , compare old old model, answer material content all promotes weight of new model stand-alone and carbon fiber significantly, future sustains generation multiplier effect carbon fiber demand to grow. Military plan iteration will increase demand of 8210 tons of carbon fiber newly, market dimensions achieves 32.8 billion yuan. Main hypothesis: 1) military plan lasts iteration, new model appears ceaselessly; 2) according to " select material of advanced battleplan construction and workmanship demand are analysed " content, coefficient of challenge opportunity construction is set for 31%-34% . 3) composite material of carbon fiber of for military use becomes a useful person rate it is about 70% . Order of homebred C919, ARJ21 increases ceaselessly, prop up civil carbon fiber demand of future of answer lumber market. C919 of homebred air bus started development 2008, the success flew 2017 and the plan obtained comfortable boat evidence 2021. In addition, the sales volume after plane of homebred ARJ21 new branch line throws operation also keeps good. The sound that occupy was announced in May 2020, client of C919 current accumulative total 28, order sum total already had 815; Shang Fei also is received come from 22 clients aggregate order of 596 ARJ21-700 aircraft. Via calculating, current and homebred plane cashs in hand order will produce 1383 tons of carbon fiber answer material demand, market dimensions exceeds 5.5 billion yuan. According to aviation industry development research center releases " 2020-2039 year civil aircraft market forecasts annals " forecast, retire to contented volume rises and be replaced plane demand, to dimensions of plane aircraft group will amount to 8854 2039, the airliner that adds newly because of volume demand among them 5208, replace retire plane 2368, the rest is the plane that put an amount 1278 times, vendibility exceeds -727379968 dollars. We are judged, future is order of homebred and civil aircraft to will continue to grow with C919, ARJ21, carry further brace up carbon fiber is downstream demand. 4. High end is many bits civiller blossom, homebred replace greet 4.1 wind-force of 　 of 　 of growing a place with a draught to generate electricity will become carbon fiber of 　 of new drive of carbon fiber industry to be able to reduce weight of wind report lamina effectively, stimulative wind-force generates electricity to develop to high-power direction. Wind-force generates electricity the system basically is mixed by dynamo, lamina, mast control system composition. Among them, composite material lamina is one of core components of the dynamo, blade cost occupies the 18%-22% of dynamo system cost about. Because the electric energy of wind- driven dynamo and blade length become direct ratio, reason this needs to increase blade length to enhance hair electric power, blade weight also increases subsequently, to balance blade weight and length better, carbon fiber composite material makes the good choice of wind report lamina. Turn over 4 times 5 years, demand of carbon fiber of wind report lamina is added fast driving. According to contest abstruse statistic of carbon fiber technology, 2014-2019 year the carbon fiber demand that comes from domain of wind report lamina rises to by 6000 tons twenty-five thousand five hundred tons, CAGR is amounted to 33.6% , add fast driving. 25% what came from the carbon fiber demand of domain of wind report lamina to occupy gross 2019, however because this domain carbon fiber is monovalent inferior, not remarkable to total amount contribution, 12% what hold total demand magnitude of value only. Wind-force generates electricity market dimensions is rapid and outspread, for main market. Release according to GWEC " wind report develops a report 2019 " statistic, wind report added installed capacity newly to achieve 60.4GW 2019, grow 19% compared to the same period; Installed capacity of wind report accumulative total broke through 650GW 2019, grow 10% compared to the same period, 2001-2019 year installed capacity of wind report accumulative total rises to 651GW by 24GW, CAGR is amounted to 20% , dimensions is added fast remarkable. The level, of before adding installed capacity newly 2019 to rank 5 is, the United States, England, India and Spain, aggregate 70% what occupy. With respect to machine of accumulative total outfit character, , the United States, Germany, India and Spain the train comes the 5th, aggregate 72% what occupy. Our country is onshore with maritime increase outfit machine scope newly all row: 2019, onshore wind report adds installed capacity newly to be 54.2GW, grow 17% compared to the same period; Dimensions of machine of accumulative total outfit has stridden 600GW this one new milepost, achieve 621GW. Among them, report of our country onshore wind is added newly and net capacity is 23.8GW, hold proportion 44% , accumulative total and net capacity achieves 230GW. 2019, maritime wind report adds installed capacity newly to exceed 6GW, it is throughout history a year when had behaved. Among them, of our country add dimensions newly to achieve record-breaking 2.3GW, house. Of England add dimensions newly to be close to 1.8GW, still be market of main maritime wind cable. Of Germany add dimensions newly to exceed 1.1GW, house the 3rd. Forecast according to GWEC, 2020-2024 year, hopeful increases chance of outfit of 355GW wind report newly, year all grow be close to 71GW, CAGR will be achieved 4% . Maritime wind report will add outfit machine dimensions newly from 6GW to 15GW, its add outfit machine newly to be occupied mediumly in year wind report than corresponding by 10% rise to 20% . With respect to the market character, because put an amount,merge into electrified wire netting, with taking approve electrovalency, hopeful became friend one year when throughout history of market of onshore wind cable has behaved this 2020, begin from 2021, development of market of onshore wind cable basically gets drive of par online item, continue to lead wind report the market. The bitter fleabane development that we judge wind cable industry will make carbon fiber market strong drive, promote demand of civil carbon fiber to go tall. 4.2 carbon fiber, lead future of 　 of revolution of data of automobile of new energy resources to already came, carbon fiber helps strength implementation of car of new energy resources is light quantify decay. Calculate according to network of car of new energy resources, below course of development of same add boat, electric car weight is morer even than traditional car heavy 200-300kg. Course of development of boat of better to make sure electric car has because of this add and can bear cost, electric car automobile body must be decreased weigh 50% above. Be in all light in quantifying material, carbon fiber composite material is exclusive the advanced material that can pledge heavy 50-60% is decreased to be able to provide coequal strength however on component foundation in steel. Carbon fiber and its composite material are in car of new energy resources is small the advantage that quantifies a domain highlights expression to be in the following respect: Automobile body is light quantify: Carbon fiber density is small, inferior carbon steel structure is decreased heavy 50% , more magnesian / aluminium alloy structure is decreased heavy 30% ; Overturn pull current Cheng: Mould pressing and felt craft are replaced punch and solder, managing product line reachs the investment of model, clamping apparatus; Compositive degree tall, modelling freedom: Can design a gender strong, can realize cost of clipper-built curved surface low, can reduce component sort and tool investment; Promote a car security: The car is small the center after quantifying drops, promotion operates stability, collision is sucked can the 6-7 that ability is steel times, aluminous 3-4 times; Promote a car comfortable sex: Taller oscillatory damp, fall to car whole promotion of effect of a confusion of voices is remarkable, comfortable sex more. According to car project the society releases " energy-saving with route chart of technology of car of new energy resources " forecast, 2026-2030 year, implementation of our country general is truckload heavier than was being decreased 2016 35% , develop the stress magnesium alloy and technology of carbon fiber composite material, the big range that realizes carbon fiber composite material to blend automobile body and carbon fiber component applies. Decrease except automobile body outside weighing, carbon fiber Yi Ke applies at casing of batteries of car of new energy resources. Dynamical cell regards energy of car of new energy resources as the core component of supply, its function affects the property performance of car of new energy resources directly. Its have to material be quantified high strenth, gently and good corrosion resistance demand; Carbon fiber has great advantage in this 3 respects, its are had taller mix than intensity the quantity that compare a pattern, still have at the same time be able to bear or endure admirably corrode sex and anti-flammability, can satisfying afore-mentioned requirements accordingly while, those who accomplish dynamical cell box is light quantify. Market of car of our country new energy resources is added fast driving, future will make carbon fiber the firm rock in midstream of downstream market. The steam in occupying assist believe ministry statistic with labour, 2014-2019 year car of our country new energy resources produces per year a quantity to rise to by 84 thousand 1.242 million, CAGR is 71.4% , quantity of produce and sale glided slightly 2019 main because of industry allowance fall off. We think, accompanying the car was decreased 2020 heavy 10% , decreased 2025 heavy 20% , decreased what achieve 30% goals again to draw near 2030, and the abidance that shipment of car of new energy resources measures promotes, carbon fiber composite material is applied mediumly in industry of automobile of new energy resources limits and apply scale to will continue to expand, make make big carbon fiber light quantify market of car of new energy resources, lead carbon fiber industrial future. Entrance of carbon fiber of 4.3 our country replaces a feature show first, future but carbon fiber of period 　 our country is homebred change rate for 32% , the entrance basically depends on Japan, Taiwan partly. According to " carbon fiber industry releases good chance 2019 " elaborate, our country imported a quantity to be 26 thousand tons in demand of 38 thousand tons of carbon fiber 2019, grow 68% compared to the same period; Homebred supply is 12 thousand tons, grow 33% compared to the same period, homebred change rate amount to 31.5% . With traditional size silk bundle the market will divide, our country is small bundle of market size about 18 thousand tons, its produce about 7000 tons; Big bundle of market size about 14 thousand tons, its produce 1000 tons; Have additionally be close to over or across of 5000 tons of or so homebred carbon fiber two markets. Supply of our country homebred carbon fiber is at present successive already two years amplitude exceeds 30% , body reveals enterprise of state-owned carbon fiber to produce the tremendous promotion of technology and level of management, predict to was controlled 2025, homebred quantity will surmount our country carbon fiber import volume. The mainland imported carbon fiber from Japan 2019 8000 tons, 20.3% what take total demand; Import carbon fiber from Taiwan 6000 tons, 15.0% what take total demand, taiwan and Japan are become supply the ground greatly except the carbon fiber beyond mainland mainland. Situation of 4.4 country supply: High-end focusing technology innovates, force of low end hair falls 4.4.1 high end taste this synergism 　 　 supplier can be counted on one's fingers, function of product of 　 of strong of constant of core business overmatch decides core competition ability, send an advantage to be accumulated continuously first form eventually block an advantage. Wait for high-end market to aerospace, product function is to want an element, in occupying, book of raise capital by floating shares of brief science and technology is stated, show level our country to be engaged in the unit close a hunderd schools of development of carbon fiber material and production, but can produce the can be counted on one's fingers of enterprise of high-powered carbon fiber that accords with aerospace standard, a large number of enterprises lie fallow in sports centrally domain, manufacturer of great majority carbon fiber still lies deficit condition. As discard of bad of market economy superior, carbon fiber industry will is faced with shuffle, have own intellectual property and innovate continuously the enterprise of ability is sure to be occupied in prospective competition first machine. The firm that at present home can produce high-end carbon fiber is main god of constant of material of ability of the Jian Ke in having, Guang Wei answer, Jiangsu and in answer god eagle, among them in brief science and technology and Guang Wei answer material is circuit of high-end carbon fiber more get the person that run. We think, in the advantage of answer material basically is in brief science and technology and Guang Wei centrally the following 3 respects: Cut domain of high-end carbon fiber earlier to form send an advantage first: 1) in brief science and technology was 2008 assume polyacrylonitrile of “863 of ministry of science and technology base carbon fiber project changes ” priority discipline and hold water, subsequently the research and development of carbon fiber of take root high end and project influence preparation, in homebred turn the product below the concept that replace the domain is blank related ceaseless fill home; 2) material of Guang Wei answer began carbon fiber research and development 2002, assume home built 2008 while two 863 carbon fiber are special kiloton class carbon fiber produces a line, become domestic home to realize the company that carbon fiber project turns. Powerful scientific research ability and investment of persistent research and development widen ceaselessly enterprise moat: 1) in fact of brief science and technology accuses average per capita to be expert of the tip inside course of study, president Yang Yonggang and general manager Wen Yuefang all come from our country early the coal of Shanxi of orgnaization —— Chinese Academy of Sciences that pursues research and development of new-style material with carbon element is chemical institute, 2013- 2019 year investment of research and development grows nearly 3 6 years times, accredit gross exceeds 20; 2) research and development of carbon fiber of deep ploughing of material of Guang Wei answer is close 20 years, what upheld standard of two carbon fiber for industry bibcock is make make during, the product enclothed the carbon fiber of a few high end such as T300/T700/T800/M40J, and the engineering capability of research and development that owns core facility, it is at present domestic produce is planted complete, technology one of industries of bibcock of carbon fiber industry with whole catenary of advanced, industry. Form stable supply demand relations with downstream client, become supplier of core of special type domain: Class of T700 of brief science and technology is mixed in carbon fiber of class of T300 of material of Guang Wei answer already was changed to be used at domain of our country aerospace by batch, become supplier of core of special type domain; Because special type field is right material quality and stability demand are extremely high, reason once this is corresponding model finalizes the design batch produce, supply relation and material price will keep smooth inside period of time. Pattern of aerospace domain competition tends stable, perseverance of core supplier overmatch is stubborn. Supplier of core of current aerospace domain is main material of ability of the Jian Ke in be, Guang Wei answer and in boat Gao Ke, among them in boat Gao Ke basically is offerred beforehand dip makings, beehive and aviation composite material, ability of the Jian Ke in be and Guang Wei answer material is downstream enterprise. We think, aerospace field will compete henceforth pattern general look forward to is firm, position of head industry industry will be farther firm: 1) aerospace domain abroad implements technology and product block policy to our country, technology of core of overlay new material is indigenous the abidance that turns a tide is deduced, head enterprise will obtain more to expand space and opportunity; 2) the high-end domain such as aerospace tastes performance demand severe exacting to producing, and country is only in a few enterprise such as material of brief science and technology, Guang Wei answer masters core technology producible the data that gives contented demand, cannot replace a gender to increase ceaselessly; 3) the head appears on the market industry posture relatively its competitor can win more support from capital market, the company that at the same time policy resource also will have latent capacity of pursuant international tycoon to the head necessarily tilts, get the person that run to will obtain more to block an advantage. Tycoon of international of straight face of 4.4.2 traditional markets competes, fall this synergism is crucial 　 beauty, day almost market of forestall carbon fiber, domestic traditional domain faces great competition pressure. According to " carbon fiber industry releases good chance 2019 " statistic, carbon fiber moved 2019 produce can be 155 thousand tons about, among them Japanese carbon fiber is produced can be 29 thousand tons about, occupy produce can 18.8% ; The United States is homebred can be 37 thousand tons about, occupy produce can 24.1% . Japan is country of big carbon fiber production, li Yang has 3 water chestnut of Dong Banghe Japan of Japanese Dong Li, Japan propylene nitrile base carbon fiber share of 50% above market, master top carbon fiber to manufacture a technology, of the product all be in lead position with the quantity character, and the United States is one of minority that carbon fiber masters to manufacture a technology after afterwards Japan, it is to go up at the same time nitrile radical carbon fiber consumes big propylene country, occupy the 1/3 of total consumption about. According to statistic of association of chemical fiber industry, be in small bundle of carbon fiber market, japanese company place is occupied produce can 49% ; In big silk bundle on carbon fiber market, american company place is occupied produce can 89% . To domestic company, because beautiful, day is in lead position in technical domain, with family name of conspicuous of time Ben Dongli, United States because enterprise of this kind of old brand produces the respect pressure such as line depreciation lesser, cost end also is put in great advantage, bring about domestic company to be faced with tycoon price to hit pressure, product dumping, vivosphere insecurity. Domestic proprietor of an enterprise should be produced through augment can promote scope effect to compete intensely in order to answer. No matter be traditional and civil market (include aerospace) , still have the market of large-scale requirement latent capacity, traffic of the report that be like wind, car, orbit, the price and sexual price compare be enterprise consideration from beginning to end to want an element, from this ecbolic the carbon fiber variety that gives each commerce value. Came 2019, the enterprise announces enlarge produces a plan in succession, we predict to produce can will releasing stage by stage in the near future, carbon fiber hopeful walks into low cost times truly. Low cost and high-powered harmonious and unified it is direction of industrial future progress, also be domestic company overtakes good chance. Low cost is the fundamental technology that different function carbon fiber all needs: 1) to high-end product, should solve “ from after having the level sex problem that has ” , drop production and the subject that obtain cost to will become below the industry one stage; 2) civil to the tradition market, low cost technology is the key that the industry survives in intense competition more. In addition, according to " carbon fiber industry releases good chance 2019 " state, low in process of carbon fiber production cost, efficient, high quality can come true coexist, current, the speed with the dry wet in season on international has been as high as 600-700 rice / minute, home also achieved 500 meters / minute, speed ground promotion meets those who bring cost reduce, but do not affect fibrous high-powered; Manage together, to wet spinning craft, the former silk product line that beautiful company overcomes to Zhuo Ertai east is carried fast one times, a few enterprises of home also can realize 250-300 rice / minute speed, do not have bad influence to the function of carbon fiber, promoted the promotion of function instead. We think, industry of prospective home carbon fiber can be being reduced necessarily cost and raise performance side synchronism to send force, ordinal implementation is low upright domain low cost, high-end domain low cost and low end the domain is high-powered of low cost span type develops. (the article offers reference only, represent source only square with author point of view. Report origin / author: Believe amount to negotiable securities / Zhang Runyi)