Liu of square enormous legendary fish health

Beijing is thermoplastic institute of technology of composite material project

Beijing accept contains a limited company of new material science and technology

01 foreword

Carbon fiber is new generation enhances fiber, the ” of king ”“ black gold of new material of the “ that be called, can apply extensively at equipment of aerospace, energy, traffic to carry, sports is recreational wait for a domain. Press silk bundle of norms different, can be its cent bundle of carbon fiber and small big silk bundle carbon fiber.

Big bundle of person that new material of civil industry of carbon fiber —— aboves average. Carbon fiber is had expect except general carbon material high temperature resistant, wear-resisting is brushed, electric, heat conduction and anti-corrosive wait for character, still can show steady chemical performance and physical performance. The place in every bundles of carbon fiber contains ultimate fibre root to count a be carbon fiber main index. Big silk bundle carbon fiber shows number of carbon fiber root is in 48000 normally namely (the fasciculus of 48k) above, include 50000(50k) , 60000(60k) , 120000(120k) , 360000(360k) to wait, and small bundle of carbon fiber that carbon fiber points to to fiber root number is less than 48k bundle, wait like 1000(1k) , 3000(3k) , 12000(12k) , 24000(24k) . With small silk bundle photograph comparing is big bundle of limitation that is made technology its model quantity and intensity are shown a bit inferior, but the cost that make and price have tall sex price to compare, in industrial domain especially wind report domain got applied extensively.

Big each silk of bundle of carbon fiber bundle have 48 thousand thread, only the 1/7 of hair silk diameter goes to each fibrous diameter 1/8, it is one kind contains carbon to measure the high strength in 95% above new-style fiber material. Its are mechanical performance is superior, 1/4 what specific gravity is less than steel, the 7~9 that intensity is steel however times, and return have anticorrosive characteristic.

Chart 1 big bundle of carbon fiber

02 big characteristics of bundle of carbon fiber

Although bundle of carbon fiber and big small silk bundle carbon fiber has a lot of collective advantages, but opposite Yu Xiaosi bundle carbon fiber, big silk bundle carbon fiber has a lot of characteristics, basically include:

(1) use the civil polyacrylonitrile with inferior cost (PAN) silk serves as former silk

The preparation of carbon fiber former silk is one of the mainest techniques in carbon fiber is developed and be being produced. Only high-powered Yuan Sicai can produce the carbon fiber that gives high quality. Big the special PAN filament that uses low cost regards bundle of carbon fiber as former silk. Use at making small of bundle of carbon fiber special former silk is almost identical. But, the price is small silk about bundle carbon fiber is special 1/4 of former silk, and the price of former silk occupies the 60 ％ of cost of carbon fiber preparation about normally. Accordingly, big price of bundle of carbon fiber comes for small 50 ％ of bundle of carbon fiber price only 60 ％ .

(2) have higher performance/price ratio

Be in abroad, the function of carbon fiber is measured than coming through its price performance normally, namely the intensity of every dollar, modular quantity, than comparing modular amount by force. With small silk bundle carbon fiber photograph is compared, big sexual value of bundle of carbon fiber is more than be being gotten high.

Chart 2 big bundle with small comparison of bundle of carbon fiber

relatively Yu Xiaosi bundle, big silk bundle produce can slant on function weak, but sexual price is stronger. From big silk bundle manufacturing technology can see its production cost is inferior, this also is big silk bundle core competition ability.

Will look from function: Model of big 3.5-5.0 GPa of bundle of carbon fiber tensile strength, drawing measures 230-290GPa. Under photograph comparing, small bundle of carbon fiber is mechanical performance is more superior, model of tensile strength 3.5-7.0 GPa, drawing measures 230-650GPa.

Look from cost: Civil polyacrylonitrile former silk is preparation is big former silk of bundle of carbon fiber, normally former silk price is the 50~60% left and right sides of cost of preparation carbon fiber about, accordingly, big price of bundle of carbon fiber can control small 50%-60% of bundle of carbon fiber to control. A few big on the market main function had been close to bundle of carbon fiber to exceed the part is small even bundle of carbon fiber.

Chart 3 size silk bundle property cost is comparative

03 big bundle carbon fiber basically uses a field

Because,be big silk bundle sexual price compares tall characteristic, constant big silk bundle carbon fiber is applied at industrial domain. Carbon fiber is big bundle function although unlike small silk bundle, but its cost is lower, as the development of science and technology, big silk bundle apply more extensive also. The its are main OK at Electromechanical, traffic applying that carry, the industrial domain such as building construction, the sources of energy, spin, also be called accordingly industrial level carbon fiber.

Chart 4 big bundle carbon fiber basically uses a field

Basis " market of composite material of carbon fiber of 2016—2021 whole world reports " , demand of domestic carbon fiber took the field of before comparing 3 2021 is wind report lamina respectively (36.10% ) , sports is recreational (28.10% ) with carbon / carbolic answer material (11.30% ) .

Country is big 2021 bundle in basically using a field, wind report lamina is occupied than the first. Domestic carbon fiber is big bundle domain of application of main and specific fractionize has wind report blade, mix match a model to shape, core of building, cable and shipping. According to the data in report of market of composite material of carbon fiber of 2021 whole worlds, wind report lamina is occupied main big 78.4% of bundle of applied field requirement, rank the first, the 2nd with the 3rd compare to occupy respectively of 10.5% mix match a model to shape with the building of 8.7% .

Chart 5 2021 year China is main big bundle of demand — application (ton)

Although big industrial domain application of bundle of carbon fiber is various, its are apoplectic electric lamina remains demand to carry brace up brunt. No matter be category of all carbon fiber or big application of bundle of carbon fiber,get inside the country, application of demand of wind report lamina all is ranked the first. Among them, our country is big 2021 demand of apoplectic report lamina takes bundle of demand than exceeding 70% . Wind report lamina is in of technology and material in changing ceaselessly, dimension lighter, function becomes bigger, quality more by force core appeals to beg, the buildup that can satisfy afore-mentioned appealing to to beg material can be counted on one's fingers, carbon fiber walks into people eye shot.

The development of sea wind was carbon fiber to offer further progress opportunity in the application on wind report lamina. " 945 ” of “ but second birth the sources of energy develops a program " offer policy to prop up, south peninsula of key construction Shandong, long triangle, Fujian, another name for Guangdong Province east with upper bay base of phone of 5 big maritime wind. Sea of Chinese accumulative total is windward 2021 installed capacity is report 26.39GW. Sea wind lamina is large change trend posture more more apparent than land wind, at present the longest lamina has exceeded 120 meters, and large lamina carriage photograph is more convenient than land. Bridge of Si Dasi carbon pulls together with dimension crowded craft patent expires, our country is in pull crowded craft to go up to already achieved technical breakthrough, sequel pulls application of dimensions of crowded carbon bridge to will drive carbon fiber to use permeability promotion in blade further.

04 big current situations of bundle of carbon fiber

Carbon fiber is world each country develops new and high technology, national defence sophisticated technology and the corporeal base that transform traditional industry and technical forerunner, it is our country strategical one of the mainest development way in burgeoning industry. Have obvious the army and the people at the same time amphibious feature, the fundamental sex with be had very important to national economy progress and national defence modernization, decisive with decisive action. Advanced level puts carbon fiber industry of China and international in bigger difference.

(1) the technical gradual progress of carbon fiber of developed country dominant

3 big tycoons of Japanese are strong forestall, after beautiful, heart tightens therewith. Japanese Dong Li all the time since it is the overlord that global carbon fiber makes, the supply of carbon fiber of forestall Boeing company, 2020, dong Li and east state, 3 water chestnut in global propylene city of sales volume of nitrile radical carbon fiber is occupied rate amount to 50% above.

Be in carbon fiber is small bundle of market, dong Li, Dong Banghe 3 water chestnut are aggregate held the whole world is small name produces bundle of carbon fiber can 70% above, hold monopoly position. After the United States tightens therewith, american conspicuous family name has military plan of 40 old United States to develop the experience that uses carbon fiber, the city of sales volume of cyanogen spy of hertz family name and United States was occupied 2020 rate achieve 12% .

Be in carbon fiber is big bundle of market, japanese Dong Li buys American ZOLTEK epigenesis to be the whole world is great leading sheep of bundle of carbon fiber, 3 water chestnut of Japanese also begin to increase big investment of bundle of carbon fiber. After German SGL company tightens therewith, the city of sales volume whole world 2020 is occupied rate achieve 23% .

Chart 6 small chart of bundle of share of carbon fiber market 7 big share of bundle of carbon fiber market

Following watches were shown end whole world of carbon fiber of Japanese Dong Li company was produced in March 2021 can reach distributinging situation; In March 2021, groovy standards of Japanese Dong Li company (small silk bundle) carbon fiber whole world is produced can be twenty-eight thousand seven hundred and seventy tons / year, american branch and mainland are produced can be respectively 9, 900 tons / year with 8, 970 tons / year, big theory produces bundle of carbon fiber can be twenty-six thousand one hundred tons / year (produced 2020 can be twenty-five thousand four hundred tons) , carbon fiber is aggregate produce can be fifty-four thousand eight hundred and seventy tons.

Chart global carbon fiber produced 8 Japan Dong Li company in March 2021 can circumstance

Next watches showed end whole world of carbon fiber of Japanese Dong Li company was produced in March 2022 can reach distributinging situation, norms of its middling compasses (small silk bundle) carbon fiber whole world is produced can and in France, United States, Korea manufacturing radical real estate all can keep changeless; Be in big bundle of carbon fiber domain, zoltek of Japanese Dong Lizi company is located in Hungarian, Mexico to produce base to produce can by twenty-six thousand one hundred tons / year raise 29 thousand tons / year; With compared 2021, carbon fiber year always produce can increase 3600 tons.

Chart 9 Japan Dong Li company global carbon fiber is newest in March 2022 produce can circumstance

The industry such as report of wind of profit from whole world grows with high speed of carbon fiber demand, beautiful company expands big silk ceaselessly east bundle carbon fiber is produced can, in November 2021, japanese Dong Li company releases information through government-owned net, zoltek of subsidiary of its United States restrains the cost 130 million dollar (about 14 billion yuan of RMBs) at the company is big promoting bundle of carbon fiber before 2023. This also is the company announces the 2nd times to produce within 2021 can promote a plan, in June 2021, zoltek company already announced to will enlarge its to be located in Mexican melon to amount to Lahala the carbon fiber productivity of the factory.

Can promote a plan through be being produced twice inside 2021, after predicting to produce line go into operation, the Zoltek plant that is located in Mexican Jalisco is big of bundle of carbon fiber produce per year can promote 54% the left and right sides, achieve 20000 tons of above, add Zoltek to make in Hungarian factory produce per year can aggregate promotion finally to reach 35000 tons / year. Company of this Dong Li is big bundle carbon fiber is produced per year can increasing 3600 tons also is the result that produces can fast dilate.

(2) fast growth, tall external the characteristic that depend on sb or sth for existence is spent is Chinese carbon fiber

According to statistic, the total demand of Chinese carbon fiber made an appointment with forty-eight thousand nine hundred tons 2020, although have the impact of new coronal epidemic situation but still maintained of 29% add fast.

Actually, during 935 ” of “ , carbon fiber demand of China is added fast maintain all the time in two digit above.

Benefit from benefit from applies downstream open, carbon fiber demand of China adds fast likelihood to still be maintained during 945 ” of “ in very tall increase fast level.

Not only such, chinese carbon fiber also is being maintained all the time tall external depend on sb or sth for existence is spent, whole of carbon fiber industry imported a quantity to be 33064.56 tons 2021, relatively rose 2020 8.72% .

(3) external environment forces industry of domestic carbon fiber upgrades

Western country restricts us to develop basically is small silk bundle carbon fiber, relevant domain is put in severe technical blockage and product embargo. Use carbon fiber to industrial domain, western country uses his to send an advantage first all the time, hit on the price control native land company.

Since 2020, suffer the effect of epidemic situation of global new coronal, the commerce whole of global carbon fiber gets bigger impact, foreign carbon fiber exports domestic difficulty to increase.

2020 since second half of the year, japan, United States strengthened the policy canal that exports China to carbon fiber to accuse, bring about carbon fiber to import difficulty farther bigger.

In December 2020, because company exit carbon fiber flowed into Dong Lizi to did not obtain Japan " foreign currency and foreign law of trade " Chinese enterprise of the license, japan carried out administrative guidance to warn to this company via producing a province, ask Dong Lizi company prevents to produce this kind of event again, had done exit government thoroughly. From 2020 the bottom begins, dong Li suspended be opposite China business of exit carbon fiber.

Feburary 2021, american president is done obeisance to ascend signed administrative order, in the checkup that confederative interagency spreads out by a definite date 100 days, supply the flaw in catenary in order to solve 4 crucial products, include carbon fiber among them, main goal is to enhance the flexibility that supplies chain, be faced with crucial product to be in short supply at future with protecting the United States to avoid.

Data industry obtains the core of the breakthrough to depend on dimensions turning production, and can swim with fluctuation communicate the problem that the need in using a process solves. Abroad canal accuses aggrandizement and epidemic situation to show itself for indigenous industry actually repeatedly offerred a good industry to develop an environment.

Had achieved big technical breakthrough of bundle of carbon fiber considering indigenous industry, in the meantime, domestic market is in again rise abruptly quickly. We think Euramerican right China exit canal accuses to strengthen possible profit to be more than fraud.

05 big market prospect of bundle of carbon fiber

Wind energy domain is main drive element. Up to by 2021, chinese wind report installs machine dimensions 328GW, hold global proportion for 39.2% , add 47.57GW newly 2021 among them. Industry of cable of ahull of double carbon setting persists Gao Jing is angry, wind report data upgrades transition quickens double carbon setting to fall but development of second birth energy enters drive, wind report is our country be next to coal report and water and electricity the 3rd generate electricity greatly origin, also be development is the rapiddest but one of second birth the sources of energy. Basis " 945 ” of “ but second birth the sources of energy develops a program " , to 2025, but electricenergy production of second birth energy reachs 3.3 trillion kilowatt hour, wind electricity electricenergy production relatively implementation turned over times 2020, 5 years compound add fast achieve 15% . As the bitter fleabane of industry of cable of our country wind suddenly develops zephyr cable industry to upgrade fall this in the process, blade material innovation and sea wind rise abruptly quickly those who bring is big material is greeting bundle of carbon fiber to expand opportunity tremendously. The carbon fiber of wind energy domain is quantity of model of drawing of the high strenth with 24K-50K limits, standard, at present big bundle carbon fiber is given priority to, predict total dimensions of market of wind report data will exceed 140 billion yuan 2025, relatively turned over times 2021.

Chart demand of carbon fiber of 10 our country (ton)

In view of big silk bundle carbon fiber is downstream wind report, optical the applied domain such as shipping of recreational, electron, car is opposite bottle of volt, Chu Qing, sports its demand impetus differs, and big silk bundle carbon fiber has cost advantage more on industrial application, big silk bundle carbon fiber is forty-seven thousand five hundred tons in total 2023 demand, grow 48.38% compared to the same period. Its are apoplectic demand of electric domain carbon fiber is 38 thousand tons, increase compared to the same period 61.31% . Among them sea wind contributed 14 thousand tons of requirement. Predict 2025 demand of carbon fiber of domain of report of our country wind achieves seventy-eight thousand two hundred tons, compound increase rate exceeds 40% . If carbon fiber makes cost be reduced gradually, requirement of field of report of carbon fiber wind releases rhythm to will be accelerated further.

The dynamic balance hopeful of supply creation demand is prospective normal. If as produce can promote — scope effect to reflect — cost to drop, and brought price fall, the permeability that uses a field downstream will get promotion, future is great the price will appear bundle of carbon fiber: In the dynamic balance that supply adds demand of — of — price fall to increase supply of — price ascendant — , integral price trend drops fluctuant type.

Chart 11 our country are big demand forecasts bundle of carbon fiber

06 our country are big development state of affairs of bundle of carbon fiber

Well-known, carbon fiber is equipment of new energy resources, energy-saving environmental protection, high end is made, car of new energy resources strategical the base that burgeoning industry expands, also be the new-style construction material that great infrastructure builds, the equipment development such as more large airlines, satellite, shipping and changed main base.

Carbon fiber composite material (CFRP) with its superior performance all has in many domains use, but do not fall high as a result of house of carbon fiber price, the preparation cost of together with composite material is high, restricted its the large-scale application in civil domain. At present the car uses carbon fiber beforehand dip makings unit price is as high as 400 yuan / Kg, far outclass is other light quantify material, basically apply at luxurious car and racing bicycle, the applied gross in automobile industry is very low. Calculate according to major, the car uses carbon fiber to need to drop to 60-100 yuan / Kg, enough aluminium alloy of economy aux will be able to is compared. Cost is high it is the car uses carbon fiber the one large block of large-scale industrialization, it is the one catastrophe problem that the business that produces a car to use carbon fiber product is badly in need of solving.

The manufacturing cost that the main factor with high cost of carbon fiber composite material includes carbon fiber raw material is mixed higher cost of composite material preparation is advanced respect. Accordingly, the main way that reduces cost of carbon fiber composite material is to reduce cost of carbon fiber raw material, seek low cost fiber to manufacture the CFRP preparation technology of craft and low cost. Among them, production of carbon fiber raw material includes former silk, beforehand size of oxidation, carbonization, surface and winding cost.

Following watches are shown, 51% what PAN former silk occupies carbon fiber to produce cost, it is main factor, it is to oxidize beforehand next with carbonization, cost occupies score to be 16% , 23% . Accordingly, at present one of effective means of settlements are bundle of carbon fiber and progress is great new-style carbon fiber, the big silk that the company of gram of eminent Er peaceful of 3 water chestnut of Japanese, Dong Li and United States develops bundle the typical delegate that carbon fiber is low cost production technology.

Chart 12 carbon fiber structure of former silk cost

Produce the carbon fiber with superior performance with ” of “ China technology

Carbon fiber technology is having the technical camp of forbidding, in hand of big a few when manufacturing technology basically masters bundle of carbon fiber in the United States, Germany, Japan big companies before this. The petrifaction enterprise of our country is become through old effort is the first the home, whole world of domestic the 4th home control is big enterprise of bundle of carbon fiber technology.

Big main difficult point of bundle of carbon fiber research and development includes big even stability controls a bundle of the effective control with radiative reaction of bundle of the oxidation in process of carbon fiber preparation, filature of a 48 thousand root carbon fiber, and product line is successive cycle of run and stability.

To be in big bundle of carbon fiber preparation is medium use ” of “ China technology truly, our country arrives from equipment craft, it is big body of bundle of carbon fiber quantity is custom-built special product line, according to big production of bundle of carbon fiber requirement proper motion designs oxidation furnace, carbonization stove, mastered the crucial technology that dominates temperature field successfully not only, and undertook energy-saving model design, can realize the sources of energy to be used integratedly.

In addition, obtain former silk of good hot performance through using technology of adjusting control of structure of polymer element catenary, the system studies denaturation of filature original current can assure stability of former silk quality, develop special serial production technology, decrease greatly stay car time, great improve manufacturing efficiency.

Homebred big silk bundle carbon fiber already began industrialization distribution

Shanghai petrifaction first 48K is big homebred line can realize bundle of carbon fiber dimensions is changed, high quality production. This project plans to built go into operation entirely 2024, will achieve 24 thousand tons at the appointed time / year former silk, 12 thousand tons / year big silk bundle carbon fiber is produced can.

Own research and development is big put into production of bundle of carbon fiber product line, will bringing the biggest impact to market of whole carbon fiber is as carbon fiber homebred advance what change ceaselessly, the biggest to the market impact is the fall that imports carbon fiber price.

Data shows, as domestic carbon fiber homebred the propulsion that change, price of entrance carbon fiber predicts will from highest every tons of 45 thousand dollar falls to be controlled to every tons of 10 thousand dollar, this applies to entire industry catenary for it is an interest good news.

Data shows, demand of global carbon fiber was 118 thousand tons about 2021, among them big silk bundle carbon fiber demand is 51400 tons, occupy than about 43.5% , the applied demand that waits for downstream market in report of new energy resources, wind, smooth hot season, car, sporting goods will erupt gradually, permeability promotes ceaselessly.

Industry of our country carbon fiber is in rapid development phase, according to the investment that at present each enterprise already announced enlarge produces a plan, be born of if all construction project is OK successful go into operation, 945 ” of “ evening, fiber of Chinese new carburet is produced can will amount to 210 thousand tons of above, among them new increase silk bundle carbon fiber is produced can amount to 176 thousand tons, china is big bundle produce can outspread age will subsequently open.

Predict 2030, our country is big bundle of carbon fiber production value should can reach level of 50 billion yuan of volumes, the dimensions of composite material market that drives one billion two hundred and fifteen million seven hundred and fifty-two thousand one hundred and ninety-two level. Besides big research and development of bundle of carbon fiber and production, chinese petrifaction also is pressing the research and development of carbon fiber composite material and application energetically. Chinese petrifaction expresses about chief, in development of carbon fiber estate, chinese petrifaction will continue to increase investment in scientific research respect, industrial respect accelerates layout, mechanism system respect deepens innovation, applied setting is popularized in the round, in the meantime, hold to oneself road, make oneself characteristic product. In “ 945 ” end, chinese petrifaction will realize current level, big silk in a variety of technological process bundle, small silk bundle, high-powered the comprehensive breakthrough that waits for a product, have total position, contented country the demand of each domains, make contribution to lead and drive industry of Chinese carbon fiber to develop.