In recent years demand of colophony of EVA of our country smooth hot season increases quickly, consumption was occupied 2021 than amounting to 37% , to consume a domain greatly. Demand of colophony of EVA of bend over of predicting 2022-24 time achieves 122/162/201 respectively 10 thousand tons, CARG is 34% , demand of colophony of EVA of smooth hot season is added high. Demand of bend over getting light is driven, price shock goes tall this year, smooth in May hot season and wire cable makings rise in price to 2.9-3.1 10 thousand yuan / ton, achieve the history to be nodded high. Colophony of EVA of smooth hot season lasts in short supply, 2023 or become one of link with in short supply catenary of industry of smooth hot season, tall boom hopeful lasts 2-3 year. Recommend homebred bibcock couplet new division (003022.SZ) , attention fills rainbow eastward (000301.SZ) . Country golden negotiable securities is main the viewpoint is as follows: Downstream application is wide, demand of colophony of EVA of smooth hot season is added high. EVA(ethylene - copolymer of acetic acid ethylene) use extensively at cable of glue of epispastic shoe material, hot frit, wire Ji Guangfu batteries is enclosed wait for a domain, in recent years demand of colophony of EVA of our country smooth hot season increases quickly, consumption was occupied 2021 than amounting to 37% , to consume a domain greatly. Below the joint action that waits for an element in par, epidemic situation, double carbon, should think demand of machine of outfit of smooth hot season will be added high continuously all right, 2022-2024 predicts below neuter circumstances year add outfit machine newly to be 230/330/420GW respectively, CARG is amounted to 35.2% . Drive here, demand of colophony of EVA of bend over of predicting 2022-2024 time achieves 122/162/201 respectively 10 thousand tons, CARG is 34% . Difficulty of production of colophony of EVA of smooth hot season is tall, enlarge is produced need 3-3.5 year. EVA colophony manufactures technology of use superhigh pressure, complex, equipment defends technological process difficulty is great, among them colophony of EVA of smooth hot season has VA content tall, brilliant chooses index of low, melt advanced characteristic, manufacturing difficulty is tall. Because core equipment needs from abroad order goods, EVA device enlarge produces cycle longer, look from experience of existing unit go into operation, consideration earth builds construction (2 years) , the product is debugged (0.5-1 year) , product of form of smooth hot season climbs slope (0.5-1 year) , project start working produces EVA of class of smooth hot season to need 3-3.5 to successive firm ration year. Increment of supply of colophony of Qian Guangfu EVA is less 2024, supply and demand lasts in short supply. Demand of smooth hot season promotes quickly since 2020Q4, supply and demand of colophony of EVA of smooth hot season is tight, the price is entered rise periodic;2021 year add EVA newly to produce in great quantities can release, but because volt demand exceeds downstream light,expect growth, supply of EVA of smooth hot season lasts demand of bend over of nervous;2022 time lasts high speed, homebred quantity of EVA of class of smooth first half of the year hot season 421 thousand tons, import volume makes an appointment with 180 thousand tons, package crop 123.5GW, supply and demand tightens a balance. Look into sequel, before 2024 add EVA unit newly only Xinjiang overhead profit is new and high, ancient the sources of energy of thunder petrifaction, Bao Feng is total 750 thousand tons, considering new increase production can steady volume produces EVA of smooth hot season to have uncertainty, supply of EVA of bend over of predicting 2023-2024 time lasts in short supply, 136/153/187 of supply of colophony of EVA of 2022-2024 time bend over predicts below conservative circumstances 10 thousand tons, 2023-2024 year have 9/14 respectively 10 thousand tons supply gap, below hopeful circumstances (slant academic limit) consider colophony of EVA of bend over of current inventory gloriole to supply tighten a balance continuously. EVA price the hopeful inside year innovates again tall. Demand of bend over getting light is driven, EVA price shock goes tall this year, smooth in May hot season and wire cable makings rise in price to 2.9-3.1 10 thousand yuan / ton, achieve the history to be nodded high, as a result of downstream wire cable the domain such as makings, epispastic makings will is in in July off-season, rate of go into operation of plant of film of glue of smooth hot season suffers package to carry silicon to expect shortage is affected, EVA price somewhat callback. As 22Q4 silicon makings new increase production can be released promote package demand growth, and wire cable, epispastic wait for a domain to enter peak period stage by stage, predicting EVA price the hopeful inside year innovates again tall. 2-3 of tall boom continuance year, the price is had up space. In downstream light volt demand decides the setting that adds high falls, supply of colophony of EVA of 2023-2024 time bend over will slant continuously close, enlarge of link of the others of catenary of industry of consideration smooth hot season is produced add fast faster, predict to one of link with industrial in short supply catenary will be become since 2023, tall boom hopeful lasts 2-3 year. At present EVA glue film is occupied in downstream component than inadequacy 10% , calculate according to this, EVA colophony contains duty value every promotion affects package cost 10 thousand yuan to make an appointment with 0.04 yuan / W. Produce as silicon makings can release stage by stage, below the setting that in downstream light volt demand increases quickly, price of colophony of EVA of predicting light bend over still is had up space. Risk clew: Smooth hot season installs machine demand to anticipate not as good as, POE is permeated quickly, demand of wire cable makings, epispastic feed anticipates not as good as, raw material price is fluctuant.