Expect in the new profile such as pottery and porcelain, rare earth, alloy, organic silicon in, a kind of material has very distinct advantage, it is known as the carbon fiber of the king ” of “ new material namely. Small wait for civil product to pole of bat, fishing, wait for high-grade equipment to plane, satellite and missile greatly, it is the domain that carbon fiber exhibits skill greatly. Because having high temperature resistant, anti-corrosive, weight,wait for a lot of and special function gently just about, carbon fiber all the time since it is the strategic goods and materials that abroad has technical block and product monopoly. The production difficulty plus carbon fiber tall, technology is sophisticated wait for a reason, the research that brings about our country carbon fiber and development are in very long in the past period is in laggard status.
20 centuries 80 time, our country organizes countrywide force to begin carbon fiber development to tackle key problem, the carbon fiber that already achieved many series and level in succession in recent years is homebred change, and the own safeguard problem that solved carbon fiber of space navigation class, after making our country becomes afterwards Japan, United States the 3rd country that masters skill of carbon fiber of space navigation class.
Generate electricity as aerospace, wind-force, the development of the industry such as hydrogenous the sources of energy and car of new energy resources, goose-step of carbon fiber industry joins the drive of development. In the research domain of carbon fiber, what major breakthrough did we achieve? Future is on the road of carbon fiber industrialization, what problem do we still have to be solved urgently?
Carbon fiber why magical
The carbon fiber of a pail of standard, make an appointment with 1 kilogram again, 15000 meters long. Its color is black, its appearance not raise, but it really very magical. It is a kind of inorganic fiber that by our artifical organic fiber changes the gotten amount that contain carbon to achieve 90% above through high temperature, also call “ black gold ” .
Is why saying magical carbon fiber? Basically reflect in 5 respects.
The first if send silk,be fine. Carbon fiber diameter is in probably 5—8 micron.
The 2nd it is to be like something insignificant gently. 1/5 the density of carbon fiber is steel, 2/5 be titanium, 3/5 be aluminium. With the bicycle of carbon fiber make it, weight is mere 5 kilograms, a lady is OK very carry its sheet easily rise.
The 3rd it is to be like iron and steel by force. Carbon fiber is very strong, above all its intensity is high, carbon fiber of 12K of a bundle of standard, can bear 130 kilograms of right-and-left weight. Next carbon fiber is very high temperature resistant, carbon fiber falls in 3000 Celsius still safe and sound.
The 4th it is preparation very difficult. Its preparation difficulty and aviation engine are made, chip is made, small accept is made can is likened to, it also is a becomes greatly classic of civilization of collect mankind industry. Technological process of carbon fiber preparation is very long, it includes the process of about a hundred fractionize, at present statistic has more than 2000 to want pilot parameter, it is a course that needs thoroughly tempered really. Have expert statistic, if rely on an experiment to develop carbon fiber purely, the experimental time that needs to do is 6 of 10 square arrive 7 times of 10 square. If do a test 10 times everyday, the time with the longer even chiliad on the development need of carbon fiber, it is process of a very hard research and development, preparation so.
The 5th be like,be expensive gold. Because the preparation of carbon fiber is very difficult, technological process is very long, it is very so expensive. At present the carbon fiber of space navigation class, its price goes to 10 thousand yuan every kilograms in 1000 yuan this limits, it is a few times of steel and aluminium alloy.
Carbon fiber still has other very much advantage, the corrosion resistance that says it for example can be good, ability is all sorts of acid, alkaline, oily, still include ocean environment, its corrosion resistance can excel gold and platinum. At the same time carbon fiber still has a very peculiar characteristic, the coefficient of expansion that is it is adjacent 0, in lose 100 Celsius to arrive between 100 Celsius, its dimension keeps basically changeless. Additional a composite material of carbon fiber make it later, its fatigue resistance can be first-rate.
What does carbon fiber have to use
Carbon fiber material from do not have have, experienced 100 old histories. Its occurrence drove the technical progress of relevant domain, also formed a huge consumptive market at the same time. According to relevant data statistic, at present global carbon fiber is produced can have broken through level of 100 thousand tons of volumes. The carbon fiber of such measure is in by application after all what domain? How is it changing our life again?
What does carbon fiber have to use? Basically include the following 3 respects.
The first, carbon fiber is a of aerospace competition ability important sign. China has become the 3rd state that owns satellitic navigation system independently, in this respect carbon fiber be result cannot do not have. North fights a satellite, taking two wing like a house it seems that, its house and wing are made with carbon fiber composite material. Why should use carbon fiber? Above all, the satellite should be installed enough much instrument equipment, ask its structural heft is less than than wanting 5% , must use carbon fiber so; Next, the precision with the equipment very high demand such as satellitic antenna, camera, want to solve hot metabolic problem, carbon fiber as it happens has the advantage of this respect, the high-powered satellite that includes north to fight a satellite inside now so is the satellite that carbon fiber composite material changes.
The 2nd, carbon fiber is a magic weapon of a get the upper hand of that promotes athletics sports achievement. Carbon fiber applies on sports equipment extensive. The tennis racket of carbon fiber has made champion player's necessary equipment now. With the tennis racket that carbon fiber makes, highest ball fast can achieve horary near 250 kilometers, but high-powered aluminium alloy tennis racket can be achieved only horary 200 kilometers left and right sides, rate rose 20% above. The tennis athlete Feidele that just retires, it is the championship that with Pro Staff tennis racket of this kind of carbon fiber won 20 vole.
The 3rd, carbon fiber will be an important matter supports the industrial revolution the 4th. Coming interstellar voyage, clean the sources of energy and artificial intelligence times, carbon fiber also will be able to develop his skill to full. The mankind should enter astrospace, want to explore a moon, want to undertake the person enters a month carrying, want to explore spark, want likely also to undertake spark is explored holding a person, want to explore other planet and asteroid. No matter enter astrospace to arrive,be stationed in leave astrospace, arrive again exploration astrospace, the division that includes to will build astrospace henceforth inspects a station, carbon fiber is indispensable.
There will be many intelligent robot henceforth, the intelligence that represents artificially with the machine equips, must solve the problem of structural heft, should light quantify, with assuring them walk of the index such as time of boat of course of development, add finish. Additional, these intelligent equipment, robot must have trends to answer character, the composite material of carbon fiber has the advantage that other data cannot compare in this respect. In eve of the 4th Industrial Revolution, shortly will enter intelligence to change, wisdom changes a society in this process, carbon fiber and carbon fiber composite material will produce mainer and mainer effect.
Big bundle of carbon fiber
Press silk bundle of norms different, can be its cent bundle of carbon fiber and small big silk bundle carbon fiber. Big silk bundle carbolic fine is called the person that civil industry new material aboves average.
Carbon fiber is had expect except general carbon material high temperature resistant, wear-resisting is brushed, electric, heat conduction and anti-corrosive wait for character, still can show steady chemical performance and physical performance. The place in every bundles of carbon fiber contains ultimate fibre root to count a be carbon fiber main index.
Big silk bundle carbon fiber shows number of carbon fiber root is in 48000 normally namely (48k) the fasciculus of above, include 50000 (50k) , 60000 (60k) , 120000 (120k) , 360000 (360k) etc, and small bundle of carbon fiber that carbon fiber points to to fiber root number is less than 48k bundle, be like 1000 (1k) , 3000 (3k) , 12000 (12k) , 24000 (24k) etc. With small silk bundle photograph comparing is big bundle of limitation that is made technology its model quantity and intensity are shown a bit inferior, but the cost that make and price have tall sex price to compare, in industrial domain especially wind report domain got applied extensively.
Big each silk of bundle of carbon fiber bundle have 48 thousand thread, only the 1/7 of hair silk diameter goes to each fibrous diameter 1/8, it is one kind contains carbon to measure the high strength in 95% above new-style fiber material. Its are mechanical performance is superior, 1/4 what specific gravity is less than steel, the 7~9 that intensity is steel however times, and return have anticorrosive characteristic.
Graph 1 big bundle of carbon fiber
1.Big characteristic of bundle of carbon fiber
Although bundle of carbon fiber and big small silk bundle carbon fiber has a lot of collective advantages, but opposite Yu Xiaosi bundle carbon fiber, big silk bundle carbon fiber has a lot of characteristics, basically include:
- Use the civil polyacrylonitrile with inferior cost (PAN) silk serves as former silk
The preparation of carbon fiber former silk is one of the mainest techniques in carbon fiber is developed and be being produced. Only high-powered Yuan Sicai can produce the carbon fiber that gives high quality. Big the special PAN filament that uses low cost regards bundle of carbon fiber as former silk. Use at making small of bundle of carbon fiber special former silk is almost identical. But, the price is small silk about bundle carbon fiber is special 1/4 of former silk, and the price of former silk occupies the 60 ％ of cost of carbon fiber preparation about normally. Accordingly, big price of bundle of carbon fiber comes for small 50 ％ of bundle of carbon fiber price only 60 ％ .
- Have higher performance/price ratio
Be in abroad, the function of carbon fiber is measured than coming through its price performance normally, namely the intensity of every dollar, modular quantity, than comparing modular amount by force. With small silk bundle carbon fiber photograph is compared, big sexual value of bundle of carbon fiber is more than be being gotten high.
Graph 2 big bundle with small comparison of bundle of carbon fiber
relatively Yu Xiaosi bundle, big silk bundle produce can slant on function weak, but sexual price is stronger. From big silk bundle manufacturing technology can see its production cost is inferior, this also is big silk bundle core competition ability.
Will look from function: Model of big 3.5-5.0 GPa of bundle of carbon fiber tensile strength, drawing measures 230-290GPa. Under photograph comparing, small bundle of carbon fiber is mechanical performance is more superior, model of tensile strength 3.5-7.0 GPa, drawing measures 230-650GPa.
Look from cost: Civil polyacrylonitrile former silk is preparation is big former silk of bundle of carbon fiber, normally former silk price is the 50~60% left and right sides of cost of preparation carbon fiber about, accordingly, big price of bundle of carbon fiber can control small 50%-60% of bundle of carbon fiber to control. A few big on the market main function had been close to bundle of carbon fiber to exceed the part is small even bundle of carbon fiber.
Graph 3 size silk bundle property cost is comparative
2.Big silk bundle carbon fiber basically uses a field
Because,be big silk bundle sexual price compares tall characteristic, constant big silk bundle carbon fiber is applied at industrial domain. Carbon fiber is big bundle function although unlike small silk bundle, but its cost is lower, as the development of science and technology, big silk bundle apply more extensive also. The its are main OK at Electromechanical, traffic applying that carry, the industrial domain such as building construction, the sources of energy, spin, also be called accordingly industrial level carbon fiber.
Basis " market of composite material of carbon fiber of 2016—2021 whole world reports " , demand of domestic carbon fiber took the field of before comparing 3 2021 is wind report lamina respectively (36.10% ) , sports is recreational (28.10% ) with carbon / carbolic answer material (11.30% ) .
Country is big 2021 bundle in basically using a field, wind report lamina is occupied than the first. Domestic carbon fiber is big bundle domain of application of main and specific fractionize has wind report blade, mix match a model to shape, core of building, cable and shipping. According to the data in report of market of composite material of carbon fiber of 2021 whole worlds, wind report lamina is occupied main big 78.4% of bundle of applied field requirement, rank the first, the 2nd with the 3rd compare to occupy respectively of 10.5% mix match a model to shape with the building of 8.7% .
Graph 4 2021 year China is main big bundle of demand — application (ton)
Although big industrial domain application of bundle of carbon fiber is various, its are apoplectic electric lamina remains demand to carry brace up brunt. No matter be category of all carbon fiber or big application of bundle of carbon fiber,get inside the country, application of demand of wind report lamina all is ranked the first. Among them, our country is big 2021 demand of apoplectic report lamina takes bundle of demand than exceeding 70% . Wind report lamina is in of technology and material in changing ceaselessly, dimension lighter, function becomes bigger, quality more by force core appeals to beg, the buildup that can satisfy afore-mentioned appealing to to beg material can be counted on one's fingers, carbon fiber walks into people eye shot.
The development of sea wind was carbon fiber to offer further progress opportunity in the application on wind report lamina. " 945 ” of “ but second birth the sources of energy develops a program " offer policy to prop up, south peninsula of key construction Shandong, long triangle, Fujian, another name for Guangdong Province east with upper bay base of phone of 5 big maritime wind. Sea of Chinese accumulative total is windward 2021 installed capacity is report 26.39GW. Sea wind lamina is large change trend posture more more apparent than land wind, at present the longest lamina has exceeded 120 meters, and large lamina carriage photograph is more convenient than land. Bridge of Si Dasi carbon pulls together with dimension crowded craft patent expires, our country is in pull crowded craft to go up to already achieved technical breakthrough, sequel pulls application of dimensions of crowded carbon bridge to will drive carbon fiber to use permeability promotion in blade further.
3.Big current situation of bundle of carbon fiber
Carbon fiber is world each country develops new and high technology, national defence sophisticated technology and the corporeal base that transform traditional industry and technical forerunner, it is our country strategical one of the mainest development way in burgeoning industry. Have obvious the army and the people at the same time amphibious feature, the fundamental sex with be had very important to national economy progress and national defence modernization, decisive with decisive action. Advanced level puts carbon fiber industry of China and international in bigger difference.
- The technical gradual progress of carbon fiber of developed country dominant
3 big tycoons of Japanese are strong forestall, after beautiful, heart tightens therewith. Japanese Dong Li all the time since it is the overlord that global carbon fiber makes, the supply of carbon fiber of forestall Boeing company, 2020, dong Li and east state, 3 water chestnut in global propylene city of sales volume of nitrile radical carbon fiber is occupied rate amount to 50% above.
Be in carbon fiber is small bundle of market, Dong Li, Dong Banghe 3 water chestnut are aggregate held the whole world is small name produces bundle of carbon fiber can 70% above, hold monopoly position. After the United States tightens therewith, american conspicuous family name has military plan of 40 old United States to develop the experience that uses carbon fiber, the city of sales volume of cyanogen spy of hertz family name and United States was occupied 2020 rate achieve 12% .
Be in carbon fiber is big bundle of market, Japanese Dong Li buys American ZOLTEK epigenesis to be the whole world is great leading sheep of bundle of carbon fiber, 3 water chestnut of Japanese also begin to increase big investment of bundle of carbon fiber. After German SGL company tightens therewith, the city of sales volume whole world 2020 is occupied rate achieve 23% .
Graph share of bundle of carbon fiber market and 5 small graphs 6 big share of bundle of carbon fiber market
Following watches were shown end whole world of carbon fiber of Japanese Dong Li company was produced in March 2021 can reach distributinging situation; In March 2021, groovy standards of Japanese Dong Li company (small silk bundle) carbon fiber whole world is produced can be twenty-eight thousand seven hundred and seventy tons / year, american branch and mainland are produced can be respectively 9, 900 tons / year with 8, 970 tons / year, big theory produces bundle of carbon fiber can be twenty-six thousand one hundred tons / year (produced 2020 can be twenty-five thousand four hundred tons) , carbon fiber is aggregate produce can be fifty-four thousand eight hundred and seventy tons.
Graph global carbon fiber produced 7 Japan Dong Li company in March 2021 can circumstance
Next watches showed end whole world of carbon fiber of Japanese Dong Li company was produced in March 2022 can reach distributinging situation, norms of its middling compasses (small silk bundle) carbon fiber whole world is produced can and in France, United States, Korea manufacturing radical real estate all can keep changeless; Be in big bundle of carbon fiber domain, zoltek of Japanese Dong Lizi company is located in Hungarian, Mexico to produce base to produce can by twenty-six thousand one hundred tons / year raise 29 thousand tons / year; With compared 2021, carbon fiber year always produce can increase 3600 tons.
Graph 8 Japan Dong Li company global carbon fiber is newest in March 2022 produce can circumstance
The industry such as report of wind of profit from whole world grows with high speed of carbon fiber demand, beautiful company expands big silk ceaselessly east bundle carbon fiber is produced can, in November 2021, japanese Dong Li company releases information through government-owned net, zoltek of subsidiary of its United States restrains the cost 130 million dollar (about 14 billion yuan of RMBs) at the company is big promoting bundle of carbon fiber before 2023. This also is the company announces the 2nd times to produce within 2021 can promote a plan, in June 2021, zoltek company already announced to will enlarge its to be located in Mexican melon to amount to Lahala the carbon fiber productivity of the factory.
Can promote a plan through be being produced twice inside 2021, after predicting to produce line go into operation, the Zoltek plant that is located in Mexican Jalisco is big of bundle of carbon fiber produce per year can promote 54% the left and right sides, achieve 20000 tons of above, add Zoltek to make in Hungarian factory produce per year can aggregate promotion finally to reach 35000 tons / year. Company of this Dong Li is big bundle carbon fiber is produced per year can increasing 3600 tons also is the result that produces can fast dilate.
- Fast growth, tall external the characteristic that depend on sb or sth for existence is spent is Chinese carbon fiber
According to statistic, the total demand of Chinese carbon fiber made an appointment with forty-eight thousand nine hundred tons 2020, although have the impact of new coronal epidemic situation but still maintained of 29% add fast.
Actually, during 935 ” of “ , carbon fiber demand of China is added fast maintain all the time in two digit above.
Benefit from benefit from applies downstream open, carbon fiber demand of China adds fast likelihood to still be maintained during 945 ” of “ in very tall increase fast level. Not only such, chinese carbon fiber also is being maintained all the time tall external depend on sb or sth for existence is spent, whole of carbon fiber industry imported a quantity to be 33064.56 tons 2021, relatively rose 2020 8.72% .
- External environment forces industry of domestic carbon fiber upgrades
Western country restricts us to develop basically is small silk bundle carbon fiber, relevant domain is put in severe technical blockage and product embargo. Use carbon fiber to industrial domain, western country uses his to send an advantage first all the time, hit on the price control native land company.
Since 2020, suffer the effect of epidemic situation of global new coronal, the commerce whole of global carbon fiber gets bigger impact, foreign carbon fiber exports domestic difficulty to increase.
2020 since second half of the year, japan, United States strengthened the policy canal that exports China to carbon fiber to accuse, bring about carbon fiber to import difficulty farther bigger.
In December 2020, because company exit carbon fiber flowed into Dong Lizi to did not obtain Japan " foreign currency and foreign law of trade " Chinese enterprise of the license, japan carried out administrative guidance to warn to this company via producing a province, ask Dong Lizi company prevents to produce this kind of event again, had done exit government thoroughly. From 2020 the bottom begins, dong Li suspended be opposite China business of exit carbon fiber.
Feburary 2021, american president is done obeisance to ascend signed administrative order, in the checkup that confederative interagency spreads out by a definite date 100 days, supply the flaw in catenary in order to solve 4 crucial products, include carbon fiber among them, main goal is to enhance the flexibility that supplies chain, be faced with crucial product to be in short supply at future with protecting the United States to avoid.
Data industry obtains the core of the breakthrough to depend on dimensions turning production, and can swim with fluctuation communicate the problem that the need in using a process solves. Abroad canal accuses aggrandizement and epidemic situation to show itself for indigenous industry actually repeatedly offerred a good industry to develop an environment.
Had achieved big technical breakthrough of bundle of carbon fiber considering indigenous industry, in the meantime, domestic market is in again rise abruptly quickly. We think Euramerican right China exit canal accuses to strengthen possible profit to be more than fraud.
4.Our country is big development state of affairs of bundle of carbon fiber
Well-known, carbon fiber is equipment of new energy resources, energy-saving environmental protection, high end is made, car of new energy resources strategical the base that burgeoning industry expands, also be the new-style construction material that great infrastructure builds, the equipment development such as more large airlines, satellite, shipping and changed main base.
Carbon fiber composite material (CFRP) with its superior performance all has in many domains use, but do not fall high as a result of house of carbon fiber price, the preparation cost of together with composite material is high, restricted its the large-scale application in civil domain. At present the car uses carbon fiber beforehand dip makings unit price is as high as 400 yuan / Kg, far outclass is other light quantify material, basically apply at luxurious car and racing bicycle, the applied gross in automobile industry is very low. Calculate according to major, the car uses carbon fiber to need to drop to 60-100 yuan / Kg, enough aluminium alloy of economy aux will be able to is compared. Cost is high it is the car uses carbon fiber the one large block of large-scale industrialization, it is the one catastrophe problem that the business that produces a car to use carbon fiber product is badly in need of solving.
The manufacturing cost that the main factor with high cost of carbon fiber composite material includes carbon fiber raw material is mixed higher cost of composite material preparation is advanced respect. Accordingly, the main way that reduces cost of carbon fiber composite material is to reduce cost of carbon fiber raw material, seek low cost fiber to manufacture the CFRP preparation technology of craft and low cost. Among them, production of carbon fiber raw material includes former silk, beforehand size of oxidation, carbonization, surface and winding cost.
Following watches are shown, 51% what PAN former silk occupies carbon fiber to produce cost, it is main factor, it is to oxidize beforehand next with carbonization, cost occupies score to be 16% , 23% . Accordingly, at present one of effective means of settlements are bundle of carbon fiber and progress is great new-style carbon fiber, the big silk that the company of gram of eminent Er peaceful of 3 water chestnut of Japanese, Dong Li and United States develops bundle the typical delegate that carbon fiber is low cost production technology.
Graph 9 carbon fiber structure of former silk cost
- Produce the carbon fiber with superior performance with ” of “ China technology
Carbon fiber technology is having the technical camp of forbidding, in hand of big a few when manufacturing technology basically masters bundle of carbon fiber in the United States, Germany, Japan big companies before this. The petrifaction enterprise of our country is become through old effort is the first the home, whole world of domestic the 4th home control is big enterprise of bundle of carbon fiber technology.
Big main difficult point of bundle of carbon fiber research and development includes big even stability controls a bundle of the effective control with radiative reaction of bundle of the oxidation in process of carbon fiber preparation, filature of a 48 thousand root carbon fiber, and product line is successive cycle of run and stability.
To be in big bundle of carbon fiber preparation is medium use ” of “ China technology truly, our country arrives from equipment craft, it is big body of bundle of carbon fiber quantity is custom-built special product line, according to big production of bundle of carbon fiber requirement proper motion designs oxidation furnace, carbonization stove, mastered the crucial technology that dominates temperature field successfully not only, and undertook energy-saving model design, can realize the sources of energy to be used integratedly.
In addition, obtain former silk of good hot performance through using technology of adjusting control of structure of polymer element catenary, the system studies denaturation of filature original current can assure stability of former silk quality, develop special serial production technology, decrease greatly stay car time, great improve manufacturing efficiency.
- Homebred big silk bundle carbon fiber already began industrialization distribution
Shanghai petrifaction first 48K is big homebred line can realize bundle of carbon fiber dimensions is changed, high quality production. This project plans to built go into operation entirely 2024, will achieve 24 thousand tons at the appointed time / year former silk, 12 thousand tons / year big silk bundle carbon fiber is produced can.
Own research and development is big put into production of bundle of carbon fiber product line, will bringing the biggest impact to market of whole carbon fiber is as carbon fiber homebred advance what change ceaselessly, the biggest to the market impact is the fall that imports carbon fiber price.
Data shows, as domestic carbon fiber homebred the propulsion that change, price of entrance carbon fiber predicts will from highest every tons of 45 thousand dollar falls to be controlled to every tons of 10 thousand dollar, this applies to entire industry catenary for it is an interest good news.
Data shows, demand of global carbon fiber was 118 thousand tons about 2021, among them big silk bundle carbon fiber demand is 51400 tons, occupy than about 43.5% , the applied demand that waits for downstream market in report of new energy resources, wind, smooth hot season, car, sporting goods will erupt gradually, permeability promotes ceaselessly.
Industry of our country carbon fiber is in rapid development phase, according to the investment that at present each enterprise already announced enlarge produces a plan, be born of if all construction project is OK successful go into operation, 945 ” of “ evening, fiber of Chinese new carburet is produced can will amount to 210 thousand tons of above, among them new increase silk bundle carbon fiber is produced can amount to 176 thousand tons, china is big bundle produce can outspread age will subsequently open.
Predict 2030, our country is big bundle of carbon fiber production value should can reach level of 50 billion yuan of volumes, the dimensions of composite material market that drives one billion two hundred and fifteen million seven hundred and fifty-two thousand one hundred and ninety-two level. Besides big research and development of bundle of carbon fiber and production, chinese petrifaction also is pressing the research and development of carbon fiber composite material and application energetically. Chinese petrifaction expresses about chief, in development of carbon fiber estate, chinese petrifaction will continue to increase investment in scientific research respect, industrial respect accelerates layout, mechanism system respect deepens innovation, applied setting is popularized in the round, in the meantime, hold to oneself road, make oneself characteristic product. In “ 945 ” end, chinese petrifaction will realize current level, big silk in a variety of technological process bundle, small silk bundle, high-powered the comprehensive breakthrough that waits for a product, have total position, contented country the demand of each domains, make contribution to lead and drive industry of Chinese carbon fiber to develop.
5.Big market prospect of bundle of carbon fiber
Wind energy domain is main drive element. Up to by 2021, chinese wind report installs machine dimensions 328GW, hold global proportion for 39.2% , add 47.57GW newly 2021 among them. Industry of cable of ahull of double carbon setting persists Gao Jing is angry, wind report data upgrades transition quickens double carbon setting to fall but development of second birth energy enters drive, wind report is our country be next to coal report and water and electricity the 3rd generate electricity greatly origin, also be development is the rapiddest but one of second birth the sources of energy. Basis " 945 ” of “ but second birth the sources of energy develops a program " , to 2025, but electricenergy production of second birth energy reachs 3.3 trillion kilowatt hour, wind electricity electricenergy production relatively implementation turned over times 2020, 5 years compound add fast achieve 15% . As the bitter fleabane of industry of cable of our country wind suddenly develops zephyr cable industry to upgrade fall this in the process, blade material innovation and sea wind rise abruptly quickly those who bring is big material is greeting bundle of carbon fiber to expand opportunity tremendously. The carbon fiber of wind energy domain is quantity of model of drawing of the high strenth with 24K-50K limits, standard, at present big bundle carbon fiber is given priority to, predict total dimensions of market of wind report data will exceed 140 billion yuan 2025, relatively turned over times 2021.
Graph demand of carbon fiber of 10 our country (ton)
In view of big silk bundle carbon fiber is downstream wind report, optical the applied domain such as shipping of recreational, electron, car is opposite bottle of volt, Chu Qing, sports its demand impetus differs, and big silk bundle carbon fiber has cost advantage more on industrial application, big silk bundle carbon fiber is forty-seven thousand five hundred tons in total 2023 demand, grow 48.38% compared to the same period. Its are apoplectic demand of electric domain carbon fiber is 38 thousand tons, increase compared to the same period 61.31% . Among them sea wind contributed 14 thousand tons of requirement. Predict 2025 demand of carbon fiber of domain of report of our country wind achieves seventy-eight thousand two hundred tons, compound increase rate exceeds 40% . If carbon fiber makes cost be reduced gradually, requirement of field of report of carbon fiber wind releases rhythm to will be accelerated further.
The dynamic balance hopeful of supply creation demand is prospective normal. If as produce can promote — scope effect to reflect — cost to drop, and brought price fall, the permeability that uses a field downstream will get promotion, future is great the price will appear bundle of carbon fiber: In the dynamic balance that supply adds demand of — of — price fall to increase supply of — price ascendant — , integral price trend drops fluctuant type.
Graph 11 our country are big demand forecasts bundle of carbon fiber
The our country major breakthrough in carbon fiber domain
The carbon fiber with superior performance, because of preparation camp of difficult, technology is advanced characteristic, become the whole world to study in material the domain develops agonistic target gradually. Undertake to carbon fiber technology as a result of the developed country strict patent protection and full-scale technology block especially, bring about burgeoning country to step forward on development carbon fiber dimension difficult. Our country is early the technical research that in 20 centuries 50 time later period developed carbon fiber, but lag behind as a result of basic research, the industrial development of carbon fiber is in all the time low-level wander, pull gradually with foreign difference big.
After 2000, global carbon fiber demands exceeds supply, entrance carbon fiber is very difficult, affect national defence safety badly. In this the moment of truth, 2001, academician of strategic scientist Shi Changxu was written to the Central Committee of Communist Party of China " report about developing the ask for instructions of high-powered carbon fiber quickly " , get height takes seriously, produced far-reaching effect to promoting research and development of our country carbon fiber and investment.
All previous classics tackles key problem difficultly for years, the product function of carbon fiber of class of our country space navigation has reached level of foreign congener product nowadays. From lag behind to try best to catch up, what major breakthrough did our country obtain on the crucial technology that carbon fiber researchs? Future uses a field in carbon fiber, the space that what develop urgently to still have?
We solved carbon fiber of class of homebred space navigation have without, this is very the thing of not simple. So far, the achievement body with Chinese main carbon fiber is the following now 3 respects.
The first it is the crucial technology that broke through carbon fiber preparation, Realized series carbon fiber in succession (include T300 class, T700 class and T800 form) homebred change, the own safeguard problem that solved industry of national defence of cool one's heels of spaceflight, boat.
The 2nd was to build a certain number of the research of Gao Shuiping carbon fiber and composite material develops platform, Formed include place of courtyard of college, scientific research, large company inside pattern of research and development, the development that promoting carbon fiber and composite material enters a new level, this new level can say is arrive from quantitative change the process of qualitative change.
The 3rd it is to be on the foundation of these jobs, built the product line of carbon fiber of space navigation class of 100 tons of class, sequel in succession start working the product line of a few carbon fiber of industrial level, So the price of foreign carbon fiber produced very big change. Arrived 2009 probably 2014 these 5 years, t700 the carbon fiber price of level of this kind of industry fell 1/3 original, price of carbon fiber of space navigation class fell previously very one of. Solve carbon fiber independently so have without, no matter be from economically, still have very large contribution from social benefit respect.
After 2010, the enthusiasm of local government and enthusiasm go up greatly, the temperature that civilian battalion company invests is very high, so to the limit of one's capacity of carbon fiber product line is built, most when carbon fiber enterprise achieved many 40. Nearly two years the trend of this kind of to the limit of one's capacity is putting delay, drive in what high quality develops below, go after blindly no longer now increase produce can. Large state-owend enterprise of near future our country is seeking the group of research and development that establishs Gao Shuiping and platform of research and development, push the upgrading of movable course of study and transition.
How should the route of the industry of prospective carbon fiber go
Using a field, carbon fiber still compares generally existence to use the issue that do not rise and won't use now, domain of a lot of industry still won't use carbon fiber at present. Showed level to form a ceiling that carbon fiber develops, but this ceiling is not fixed. Must solve the following problems at present.
Implementation is cheap and fine. Want to accomplish valence cheap, solve expensive problem, it is to reduce cost above all, want to promote the efficiency of product line namely, include the size of tooling, the capacity of aggregate boiler, the fabric width of filature, the fabric width of carbonization. The design that equips among this and development are very crucial, should solve single track to produce as soon as possible can raise 2000 tons of level from hundreds tons of class.
Widen applied domain. Want to enlarge application, it is the application that enlarges our country civil aviation above all. Future, china needs 9000 civil planes inside 20 years, year all be 450 probably. If every wear plane carbon fiber,average dosage can achieve 5 tons, so of carbon fiber year all demand can achieve 2250 tons, this amount is head and shoulders above our country at present the dosage of carbon fiber of for military use, national defence, aviation, can effectively helps the application that uses carbon fiber and development.
The car is small quantify and this development tide cannot hold back green low carbonization, also will bring huge market to help motive force for our country carbon fiber and composite material industry. According to estimation, car output of China will achieve 30 million 2025, if every car uses 5 kilograms of carbon fiber, the total dosage of such carbon fiber also can achieve 150 thousand tons, this is carbon fiber must an application exit that leave no stone unturned breaks through.
Still have a very serious side, our country carbon fiber is in the dosage of sporting goods respect, had achieved forteen thousand six hundred tons 2020, but basically be to take makings treatment, the used fiber that still basically is abroad, this is a very big market. Because population cardinal number of China is large, still can drive application of carbon fiber of our country healthy industry at the same time, this market also can attain several tons scale.
Increase own innovation. Want innovation progress, accelerate solve excel in, high standard, Gao Ren the own development problem of this kind of carbon fiber. We dog impossibly to be introduced even from abroad will solve this problem, need does carbon fiber and the person that use carbon fiber to solve the problem that the 3rd acting advanced composite material innovates together, want commanding elevation of science and technology of race to control.
Additional, innovation development still has a very important way, want development to overturn namely low cost technology of the gender, if can achieve a such goals, it is epoch-making achievement. Should fall the price of carbon fiber to every kilograms of 10 dollars the following, be apart from this target to still have larger space now. Can you monarch additionally path? Come round to look from eye have two way.
The first change namely former silk technology of the gender, need not present polyacrylonitrile, with natural fiber (the fiber of natural trash) , Resemble lignin, perhaps use the organic fiber of the low cost that makes very easily, the alpaca that returns somebody to put forward to be able to use Australia even follows other raw material one case the fiber of blending, these ways are worth exploration. At present urgent need changes former silk technology of the gender, because the cost of former silk is in carbon fiber cost,occupied 50% the left and right sides.
The 2nd want development to change namely carbonization technology of the gender, the cost of carbonization also held carbon fiber cost 20% above. There are a few ways now, want to do the carbonization of short circuit, with plasma additional carbonization such a few change carbonization technology of the gender, carbon fiber realizes large-scale industry application finally, enter an innumberable families, want to had crossed this threshold.
In light of now, on the world no matter from carbon fiber itself, still be the application from carbon fiber, still exist tremendous sealed with the space that did not develop. Develop as the development of science and technology and Industrial Revolution, carbon fiber is sure to postpone great plan greatly, can help our travel outer space already, also will walk along an innumberable families, become Industrial Revolution the 4th times to aid thrust importantly to measure truly.
