The total demand of carbon fiber was sixty-two thousand four hundred tons 2021, grew 27.7% compared to the same period, among them, import volume is thirty-three thousand one hundred tons (53.1% what take total demand, than 2020 grow 9.2% ) , homebred fiber supply is twenty-nine thousand three hundred tons (46.9% what take total demand, grew 58.1% than 2020) . Wind report lamina is the main field of carbon fiber demand. Place of lamina of domestic wind report needed carbon fiber to be twenty-two thousand five hundred tons 2021, occupy than 36.1% , the position of certain room. Big threshold of bundle of carbon fiber price is high: Dimensions of wind report domain applies pressure hill to occupy introduction of blade industry expert greatly, with 100M long lamina is exemple (maritime) , if blade girder uses carbon fiber entirely, sheet raises blade to be able to reduce weight 7-8 ton (Bo fine price according to 15 yuan / Kg) , carbon fiber dosage makes an appointment with 5 tons or so, according to big current price containing tax of bundle of carbon fiber (inferior value) 150 yuan / Kg, 3 lamina need to use 15 tons of carbon fiber, use carbon fiber to need 10 thousand yuan to increase cost to make an appointment with 150-180, the type according to 12MW (maritime) the capacity is calculated, the cost that uses kilowatt of carbon fiber unit raises 120 yuan or so, according to current 3500 yuan / the fan price of Kw, occupy than making an appointment with 3 percent. According to hub total gross (3 lamina) can reduce gross 30 tons, according to fan moving load is the same as specific gravity to measure a design, will push main shaft with this, engine room chassis, tower canister, fundamental cost is reduced, the cost of the cost that this share raises carbon fiber and other system is reduced, equip in whole fan if cost can keep balance, the carbon fiber application on fan will cannot set limit to. More important is, the lamina of carbon fiber girder applies, fan system gross gets be reducinged considerably, also meet the dependability that older rate increases fan. According to afore-mentioned speculation, if have the price of carbon fiber to reduce 50% , the cost that this part cost that carbon fiber raises can reduce basically with other system keeps balance, and can use the blade of the fan on Yu Liu, the carbon fiber that calculates wind report lamina by this (35K above) demand, we according to annual the steady demand of 50GW, report of 20GW maritime wind, report of 30GW onshore wind, maritime according to 15 tons / 10MW design, the carbon fiber demand of maritime wind report exceeds 30 thousand tons, onshore according to 9 tons / 8MW design, the demand of onshore wind report is in thirty-three thousand seven hundred and fifty tons, that is to say year demand sixty-three thousand seven hundred and fifty tons (at present SGL is mixed the total output of ZOLTK just 57 thousand tons) , and actually the total carbon fiber dosage 2021 is sixty-two thousand seven hundred tons, according to 70 yuan / Kg, direct market dimensions is the carbon fiber of this market 4.5 billion yuan or so. And big bundle of carbon fiber if after the price reachs this level, to be in civil engineering etc is civil the application of the domain, the market will be the growth of twice twice. Big bundle of carbon fiber influence to technology of wind report tomorrow: One of crucial material of core, must solve dimensions to turn production actually, the technology of prospective fan develops to look at present, the technical course of group of electric machinery of horizontal axis wind is short-term inside won't have revolutionary progress, if from reduce fan weight, promotion dependability, analyse from the material sort that uses currently, metallic stuff is at present below the case with fan particular load, the dosage of material has begun to approach the limit, and reduce fan weight through using new-style data, from the point of my individual, carbon fiber is only alternative, and the linear inverse ratio with the dimensions of carbon fiber and price apparent existence concerns. From equipment technology character, technology of carbon fiber equipment travels together already basically than humeral international, can use at least, do not block a neck. And the technology of former silk gets already basically settlement, use an issue exclusively namely. The person of the same trade also has research, the carbon fiber of our country is produced can so-called big, but yield is very low however, the reason is very much, the technology that the product line project of high end of a part changes still does not have a breakthrough, one is medium the product line of low end is opposite market production value is low much, industry initiative is not big. Price of T1000 of profit high end at every turn thousands of yuan every kilograms, its profit margin is high fearsome, big silk bundle carbon fiber appears cheap apparently, production value is highlighted very hard. But look from the future of wind cable industry, carbon fiber has become the key of iteration of group of prospective wind electric machinery, par wind report wants lower cost, and large promotion need carbon fiber decreases the dependability of the fan that change to come true again. For this, wind report must want to be solved from cost and dimensions angle with carbon fiber, on one hand dimensions is produced can want promotion, on one hand the price should fall, from the point of the price history of fan, the price of carbon fiber lowers the price that is like component of smooth hot season same, once dimensions is broken through, it is inevitable that the price returns to market demand target.

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15-18 December

New York City