945 ” of “ period, industry of our country new energy predicts will with year all the rate of 19% rises. Current, self-sufficient rate is the high-end petrifaction material that new energy industry involves only 60% ～ 70% , still have bigger homebred change latent capacity. In carbon Da Feng, carbon counteracts setting to fall, structure of our country the sources of energy is in the crucial period that transforms by the new energy resources such as aweather of fossil the sources of energy, smooth, hydrogen, high-end petrifaction material also will become the important grasper that transition of traditional petrifaction company upgrades, industry of new energy of the our country that help strength grows.
2022, our country wind energy, solar energy and hydrogen can dimensions of consumption of material of petrifaction of domain high end makes an appointment with 2.3 million tons. Among them, 80% above demand comes from industry of smooth hot season, demand is the biggest is industry of smooth hot season enclose glue film and backboard material, 2/3 what occupy gross of demand of material of petrifaction of 3 industries high end about; Hydrogen can demand of industrial petrifaction material is least but add fast the fastest. Predict 2030, our country wind energy, solar energy and hydrogen can dimensions of consumption of material of petrifaction of domain high end will amount to 4.5 million tons or so.
Catenary of industry of 01 wind energyCircumstance of whole of industry of 1.1 wind energy
The whole world added wind report installation amount newly to make an appointment with 78GW 2022, among them onshore wind report makes an appointment with 69GW, maritime outfit machine makes an appointment with 9GW; Predict the whole world added wind report installation amount newly to will amount to 135GW 2025. Advance as the acceleration of transition of global the sources of energy, perspective of development of industry of cable of our country wind is wide. According to China but data of council of major of wind energy of society of second birth the sources of energy, report of our country wind added installation amount newly to make an appointment with 49.8GW 2022; During 945 ” of predicting “ , installation amount of domestic wind report year all increase 70GW left and right sides, achieved 650GW 2025; Predict the year after next all added 100GW newly about 2025, achieved 1 200GW left and right sides 2030.
Wind energy industry basically includes upriver raw material to component of production, middle reaches is made and make aircrew outfit, downstream operation 3 large segment. Petrifaction material basically applies at the fan of middle reaches to make, fan is main wait for composition by canister of blade, engine room, tower, cable. High end of material of our country wind energy consumed dimensions to make an appointment with 450 thousand tons 2022, involve product of more than kinds of 30 material. Predict to promote considerably as installation amount, relevant data is consumed during 945 ” of “ year all add fast it is about 12% ; During 955 ” of “ , material of whole of wind energy industry is consumed year all add fast hopeful to amount to 9% the left and right sides.
Application of main petrifaction material reachs catenary of industry of 1.2 wind energy market condition
1.2.1 lamina material
Fan lamina basically is mixed by material of crust, girder, abdomen board, core coating form.
Normally cap of the bridge of lamina of 90 meters of above, bridge, abdomen board uses carbon fiber data entirely; But partial small size or exceed large size lamina to also local use carbon fiber increases, the design of fine of others use Bo. Because carbon fiber cost is higher, promote ceaselessly as function of excel in fibre glass, growth of permeability of carbon fiber market puts delay. At present the wind report lamina of 90% above uses epoxy resin to make matrix; Perfusion shapes in still need to use net of cloth of drawing of patterns, diversion to keep apart bag of film, vacuum to wait for a large number of processes to use makings. Structural rubber is mixed as agglutinate lamina, girder the important material of celiac board, basically be epoxy resin system.
The 4% ～ that core material holds blade weight about 7% , material basically includes Ba Sha wood, pvc (PVC) , get together to benzene glycol of 2 formic acid ester (PET) and get together ether acyl inferior amine (PEI) , copolymer of nitrile of styrene – propylene (SAN) etc. At present manufacturer of lamina of fan of market main trend uses Ba Sha wood extensively to make give priority to the material that place core, PVC bubble serves as auxiliary material. Because price of Ba Sha wood rises to supply insecurity with PVC bubble quickly, PET bubble makes new development trend.
Current, structure of fan lamina coating basically is divided for be bored with child, lacquer of priming paint knead dough. Because polyurethane coating system has more powerful adherent force and application of oil resistant wearability most extensive. At present solvent polyurethane system holds absolutely mainstream, along with environmental protection the demand rises, prospective general gradually hydrotropism polyurethane system develops.
Material of 1.2.2 engine room
Engine room of wind- driven dynamo basically is formed by mechanical component and equipment, the component basically amasses outer casing share related petrifaction material. In the meantime, because be involved sealed move with machinery, still those who synthesize lube fat, fluid sealant and coating is use.
Crust of model of engine room of wind- driven dynamo basically is comprised by epoxy resin and Bo fine; Shape craft and blade likeness, also need a process to use material. In addition, engine room interior buries means of ” of – colophony perfusion to be strengthened with reinforcement beforehand with “ commonly, also have the kind that uses PVC core material to undertake strengthening in recent years. According to calculating, engine room uses epoxy resin base makings about 190 thousand tons, core material 32 thousand tons, predict to will promote respectively 2030 control with 73 thousand tons to 15 thousand tons.
Because fan is in an environment more abominable area, very tall to the character requirement of lube, it is PAO lube more. In engine room advocate gear case wants lubricating oil most, but as the grow in quantity that does not have gear case fan and magnetism float bearing, stand-alone lube dosage has reduce a current. Current, domestic fan is 20 thousand tons or so about with dimensions of PAO lube demand, as wind energy industry rapid development and outfit machine dimensions expand, predict to will be added 2030 control to 40 thousand tons.
1.2.3 towers canister and fundamental material
Canister of wind report tower and infrastructure are diversiform, especially maritime infrastructure, include sheet picket, conduit wearing, much picket and float a variety of types such as type. Tower canister and infrastructure basically are a metal, the consumption of petrochemical basically is centered on coating of layer of inside and outside and makings of form a vesicle.
Canister of wind report tower is mixed system of painting of picket radical inside and outside is diverse, give priority to with epoxy resin lacquer. According to estimation,
Through high strenth form a vesicle expects join is secured between conduit wearing and fundamental picket, at present maritime fan foundation basically uses cement base material to expect form a vesicle joins. The use quantity that grouting of individual and wind- driven generation set expects is mixed according to sleeve diameter, ocean environment of seabed condition differ and differ somewhat. 2022, maritime wind report makes an appointment with 8 ～ with market of makings of form a vesicle 100 thousand tons, 2030 or add to 200 thousand tons of above.
2.1.1 cable material
Cable of wind energy industry basically divides cable of the electrify that it is land and maritime cable. At present insulation expects raw material home all can be satisfied related onshore cable, maritime cable is taller to insulation property requirement, this article pays close attention to high pressure and place of cable of extrahigh voltage sea to require high-end data only.
Cable of maritime wind phone divides cable of the power transmission outside be being mixed for the cable between the tower, market report cable to wait, different cable correspondence is different voltage, redundant and material requirement. At present project of cable of our country maritime wind is less than 20 ～ of 50 kilometre, installed capacity with off shore distance the coastal waters project of 400 thousand kilowatt is given priority to; Consumption of material of sea cable high end basically is given priority to with XLPE, dimensions of 110KV above consumption is 1 ～ about 20 thousand tons, will add 2030 to 20 thousand tons of above, among them high pressure and majority of country of extrahigh voltage XLPE count an import, entrance product basically comes from boreal Europe chemical industry.
Catenary of industry of 02 smooth hot seasonCircumstance of whole of industry of 2.1 smooth hot season
2022, global smooth hot season adds installation amount 191.5GW newly, among them, increment basically comes from Asian area, occupy 58.5% what add outfit machine gross newly. 2022, our country smooth hot season adds installation amount 87.4GW newly, outfit machine gross is added to 392.6GW. Among them, smooth hot season of collect Chinese style adds 36.3GW newly, grow 41.8% compared to the same period; Distributed Guang Fuxin adds 51.1GW, grow 74.5% compared to the same period, 2017-2022 all is added year after year fast 24.6% . According to Chinese smooth hot season guild is forecasted, during 945 ” of “ , installation amount of domestic smooth dog days year all grow 94GW, installation amount of accumulative total of smooth 2025 hot season will amount to 720GW; 2025-2030 year, year all add outfit machine dimensions newly to will be controlled in 120GW.
Catenary of industry of smooth hot season basically includes upriver raw material and equipment to make, middle reaches is enclosed and construction of downstream electric field and maintain 3 shares. Raw material basically includes Guang Fugui stuff of makings, film of glue of smooth hot season, backboard makings and equipment material; Enclose package main by batteries piece, enclose glue film, backboard to form; Power station of smooth hot season basically is divided to focus style the power station is mixed distributed.
Petrifaction material basically uses at enclosing glue film, backboard and other component component make. Current, our country is the package exit country with the mainest whole world, industry of smooth hot season is relatively mature, market dimensions makes an appointment with more than yuan 3500, among them space of material segment market is the largest. According to calculating, demand of material of petrifaction of catenary of industry of our country smooth hot season is close 2022 1.9 million tons; Develop quickly as industry of smooth hot season, predict to reached growth 3.5 million tons or so 2030.
Application of main petrifaction material reachs catenary of industry of 2.2 smooth hot season market condition
In catenary of industry of smooth hot season, glue film, backboard and building smooth dog days are the oldest to the demand of petrifaction material.
Stuff of film of gum of form of 2.2.1 smooth hot season
Current, material is enclosed to basically etc of EVA glue film, POE glue film, EPE glue film encloses glue film on the market. Among them, EVA glue film is the mainstream is enclosed with material, EVA glue film was occupied about 2022 64% what always enclose glue film, it is EPE glue film and POE glue film next, occupy respectively than about 12% with 24% .
During 945 ” of “ , gross of demand of stuff of film of glue of smooth hot season will increase quickly continuously. Although hind economy of whole world of epidemic situation times is faced with add fast put the risk such as delay, high inflation, but structure of global the sources of energy is changed to diversity, cleanness, the trend of low carbonization transition is not reversible turn. During 945 ” of predicting “ , industry of global smooth hot season still has higher development latent capacity, add newly installation amount and replace installation amount will supporting demand of trade of smooth hot season continuously in the near future.
From the point of composition of glue film stuff, occupy as market of double Bo component than increasing gradually, the demand of film of transparent EVA glue, POE glue film and EPE glue film is occupied than will rising gradually.
2022, our country EVA is produced can last dilate reachs 2.022 million tons / produce per year a quantity to make an appointment with 1.56 million tons, our country smooth hot season expected crop is controlled in 280 thousand tons 2022. Accept manufacturing technology restriction, in recent years our country adds the can produce smooth hot season actually to expect company in device newly less. Short-term inside market of makings of smooth hot season still is bibcock with Si Erbang, it is couplet next model of He Ningbo stage. Current, global POE is produced can basic by foreign business monopoly, our country POE counts an import completely. But home already had much home company to tackle key problem POE technology, among them 10 thousand China chemical in already was being finished, try, predict to produced per year go into operation of unit of 200 thousand tons of POE 2024; In addition, luxuriant level tries in unripe project of petrifaction of renown petrifaction, Si Erbang, satellite, benefit offers program POE item or already was in, POE is homebred change process hopeful to accelerate.
According to statistic of bureau of national energy resources, demand of trade of our country smooth hot season lasted 2022 exuberant, add outfit machine dimensions newly to be 87.41GW, grow 59.27% compared to the same period. Industry of smooth hot season is undertaking new round large-scale produce can put in. EVA of class of our country smooth hot season and POE colophony demand were made an appointment with respectively 2022 for 130, 220 thousand tons, according to smooth hot season guild is forecasted, 2025—2030 is annual all machine of outfit of bend over of place add lustre to is controlled in 120GW, predict demand of EVA of class of smooth 2030 hot season, POE will increase respectively to 220, 500 thousand tons.
2.2.2 smooth hot season carry plank on the back to expect
Backboard of smooth hot season is the reverse side of component of smooth hot season enclose material, be in component of smooth hot season the most rock-bottom, basically use at odd Bo component. Main effect of backboard of smooth hot season is pair of batteries piece form protection to prop up, the environment such as counteractive damp and hot is right batteries piece, of the material such as EVA glue film erode. Water of the insulation of backboard, block, be able to bear or endure the quality performance such as ageing is right durability of product of cell panel of smooth hot season, generate electricity efficiency respect has bigger effect.
At present the backboard on the market basically is divided for organic high polymer kind with mineral kind, organic high polymer kind include double-faced contain fluorine, bosseyed contain fluorine and do not contain fluorine 3 kinds, mineral kind basically be glass.
2022, by at present backboard and ply of Fu of fluorine film besmear calculate smooth hot season demand of colophony of PET of backboard radical film makes an appointment with 264 thousand tons, PVF and PVDF demand are 10 thousand tons or so about respectively. Predict 2030, backboard uses PET, PVF and PVDF material demand to be added respectively to about 600 thousand, 18 thousand, 23 thousand tons.
Material of 2.2.3 constructions smooth hot season
Guang Fujian builds combination (BAPV, building Attached Photo-voltaic) show equipment of will smooth hot season adheres to the technology on the building, for at present the Guang Fujian of the mainstream builds a kind. Guang Fujian builds unifinication (BIPV, building Inte-grated Photovoltaic) show product of will smooth hot season is compositive the plan to the building, since generates electricity device also is the one part that builds exterior structure, can reduce cost effectively give attention to two or morethings is beautiful. At present BIPV industry is in start level.
Wall of act of smooth hot season is to use special resin solar cell stickup go up in glass, enchase between two glass, pass batteries to be able to change light energy into electric energy. Divide outside generating electricity, wall of act of smooth hot season still has the function such as apparent heat insolation, sound insulation, safe, adornment, it is product of a kind of green, have very good consistence with the environment.
Unifinication of building of smooth hot season is taller to the requirement of functional film, because besides using architecture system to generate electricity, consider the safety of the building even. It is easy that the component that makes as a result of EVA diaphragm suffers ultraviolet illuminate ageing, hair is yellow, fight piece of intensity to reach felt force to drop, far short of of its safety performance asks, more and more countries prohibit the lamination glass application that EVA diaphragm makes is building act wall to go up. Accordingly, the PVB diaphragm with better performance applies at solar energy smooth hot season to build unifinication stage by stage. 2022, filmy demand of our country PVB makes an appointment with 27 thousand tons, predict 2030, PVB filmy demand will be added reach 58 thousand tons.
03 hydrogen can industrial catenary
3.1 hydrogen can industrial whole circumstance
Hydrogen can be 2 the sources of energy of a kind of cleanness, it is the main carrier of transition of our country the sources of energy, bring into system of strategy of our country the sources of energy formally already. Hydrogen can industrial catenary basically is divided make hydrogen, middle reaches for upper reaches store carry cent is sold and use 3 large segment downstream. Every link involves craft line various, a large number of technologies still are in commercialize primary level.
3.2 hydrogen can application of main petrifaction material reachs industrial catenary market condition
2022, our country hydrogen can demand of material of industrial catenary whole makes an appointment with 6 741 ton; Among them the petrifaction data that place of Chu Yunhuan section requires hydrogen is most, 99% what occupy material demand gross about. Hydrogen can the crucial petrifaction material in industrial catenary basically includes proton to exchange film and carbon fiber.
Material of petrifaction of 3.2.1 production segment
Current, what our country makes an appointment with 80% above is hydric make by raw material of of all kinds fossil, electroanalysis water makes hydrogen be not worth 1% , the others all comes from industry deputy produce hydric; Long-dated, fossil raw material makes hydrogen will still exist, will become La Qing with the union such as CCUS main source, electroanalysis at the same time water makes hydrogenous portion will promote considerably; And traditional industry deputy share yield hydrogen will drop somewhat.
Electroanalysis water makes hydrogen basically have alkalescent electroanalysis (AWE) , proton exchanges film (PEM) electroanalysis, solid oxide (SOEC) electroanalysis course of 3 kinds of technologies. Film of this vulva ion exchange (AEM) the technology is mixed by right of low cost simple, efficient, make one of technologies of burgeoning research and development. In recent years, the whole world adds electrobath outfit machine newly to be given priority to with machine of PEM electrobath outfit.
The main component of batteries of solution of PEM water and electricity is velar electrode (MEA) , market electric equipment (aeriform diffusion layer) with clapboard. The most commonly used film is acid of complete fluorine sulphur polymer film, gaskets gives priority to body with EPDM commonly, use fluorine resin compound wait for means to serve as crust, and need to use gaskets of felt of special glue sticky agent. 2022, proton of our country electrobath exchanges velar demand to be 0.3 tons about, EPDM gaskets demand makes an appointment with 0.2 tons; Predict both 2030 will add respectively mix 47 tons to 106 tons.
Divide outside be being used at industry to produce hydrogen to depart, many and hydric / natural gas is mixed be defeated by pipeline terminal to need to undertake hydric depart just can be used. Outside removing inorganic film material, at present the material of foundation of hydric and detached film of industrial application basically is polyamide, get together acyl inferior amine and get together sulphone film, majority needs modified 2 times to perhaps besmear Fu. Supplier of hydric and detached technology basically has the whole world 3, include air of air product, liquid state and eaves ministry chemistry, its majority product is as long as according to saying life is OK 10 years of above.
Material makes an appointment with 10 tons, among them PSF film 3 tons, PI film 6 tons, PA film makes an appointment with 1 ton. Predict 2030, demand of stuff of film of hydric and detached link will be added reach 15 tons.
Material of 3.2.2 petrifaction of Chu Yunhuan section
Current, the memory way with the can mainest hydrogen includes high pressure to enrage Chu Qing of voice Chu Qing, microtherm liquid state and solid state Chu Qing, the memory means that uses extensive, technology to mature most among them is high-pressured gaseous state Chu Qing, because this is light qualitative, be able to bear or endure Chu Qing canister of high pressure is crucial. The market demand that the car carries Chu Qing jar suffers pressure of bottle of cubage of bottle of applied model, Chu Qing, Chu Qing, sheet to cover systematic bottle the element influence such as number. 2022, demand of our country Chu Qing bottle makes an appointment with 74 thousand, give priority to with 35MPa/140L, future, domestic Chu Qing bottle has the tendency that transforms to gang of large volume, much bottle and high pressure.
Current, dimensions of demand of material of high end of our country Chu Qing bottle not as good as 10 thousand tons, among them the carbon fiber of 70% counts an import, basically come from Japanese Dong Li, Japan east the enterprise such as SK of state, Korea; Performance of product of type of T700 of manufacturer of domestic carbon fiber is relatively steady, already used on domestic Chu Qing bottle stage by stage. According to calculating, 2022, our country car carries demand of material of Chu Qing bottle to make an appointment with 6716 tons, predict to reached growth 78883 tons 2030.
Current, machine of hydrogenation of domestic hydrogenation station is 35MPa more, component of 70MPa product core comes from an entrance more, hydrogenation gun and pipeline are entrance product basically also. The petrifaction data that hydrogenation machine uses divides a few weather strip outside (it is FKM more) , basically use at hydrogenation pipeline. Among them, hydrogenation barrel road is formed 8 layers by 6 ～ commonly, lining is POM material more, also can use the data such as EVOH, PEN, PA6, PA66, outer the much material that it is PA, also can use the data such as PP of Ma Lai acerbity modified and PE, PPS, PA6T.
End by 2022, hydrogenation of operation of our country building stands 358, arrive to will form 1000 right-and-left dimensions 2025 according to the program, will amount to 5000 2030; 2022, barrel of our country hydrogenation makes an appointment with 0.4 tons with metalloid material, predict to will be added 2030 reach 3 tons.
Material of petrifaction of cell of 3.2.3 hydrogen fuel
General component is hydrogenous fuel cell 6 kinds big, it is absolutely mainstream with PEMFC, occupy the 80% above that shipment measures about, SOFC and PAFC are occupied about each 10% the left and right sides. Fuel cell basically is used at the car to carry, the applied setting such as stationary electric power plant and portable power source, among them the car carries demand to take PEMFC quantity of total demand about 80% the left and right sides.
Principle of job of hydrogenous fuel cell is hydric the activator among the negative pole that carries fuel battery (platinic) decompose electron and pH indicator (proton) . Among them, proton exchanges film through proton (Proton Exchange Membrane) arrive at positive electrode and oxygen to reaction generates water and give off heat, electronic criterion flows to positive electrode to produce electricity through road of dispatches from foreign news agency from negative pole. Velar electrode component (MEA) the main component that is caboodle of report of hydrogenous fuel cell, basically exchange film to form by layer of carbolic paper, catalysis and proton.
Carbolic paper is the composite material of a kind of poriferous carbon fiber that issues classics heat treatment in high temperature and carbon, general with short cut fiber to give priority to. Current, home cannot produce carbon fiber content the carbolic paper of 60% above. Calculate by ply of market main trend and carbolic paper density, paper of carbon of our country MEA made an appointment with 6 tons with material 2022, predict to reached growth 89 tons 2030.
Acerbity film of complete fluorine sulphur (PFSA) it is the most commonly used commercialize proton to exchange film. The car carries place of hydrogenous fuel cell to exchange film with proton basically is the Gore-Select series film that comes from Gore company at present, ply is in 5 ～ 12μm. When commutative film leaves factory, proton is structure of a kind of three-layer, go up namely next diaphragm, diaphragm and the proton exchange film among. Below two diaphragm all are on special treated low ash content is one-time polyester diaphragm, two diaphragm need to come off when use according to at present ply of market main trend is calculated, film of exchange of our country proton and diaphragm material demand parted to mix 26 tons for 4 tons about 2022, predict to will be added respectively 2030 mix 414 tons to 59 tons.
04 conclusion
To 2030, the new energy industry that our country is a delegate with wind, smooth, hydrogen will with year all 20% right-and-left rate rise, reach more than tons of 230 growth from 2022 more than tons 450 to the demand dimensions of high-end petrifaction material. Industry of smooth hot season is the biggest consumption field, take material total demand about most probably above; Cent product looks, EVA glue film and demand of PET backboard film are the biggest, it is PVF film, POE film, EMC and epoxy resin next. In light of whole, material of petrifaction of high end of our country new energy resources is at present self-sufficient lead 60% ～ 70% , still have bigger homebred replace a space, petrifaction enterprise should increase relevant data research and development, especially demand latent capacity the big, crucial material that restricts industry development, change to diversity, cleanness for our country the sources of energy, green changes development to accumulate power.
